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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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30 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

:cold: :yahoo:

EC946658-5CAF-4C22-BB0C-EC842F42CD6E.thumb.png.19290647187ccb62b0453051c6365869.pngE114C68D-DDBF-40E7-B82C-04B7BEF3ACEC.thumb.png.0b5e9a1909e64ee21381f96d8413b1ec.png

Notice the first signs of blue now across the Easterly & lower 850s...

minus 6- .....

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S

I'm more intrigued by your battery status. Living life on the edge... and so is the weather. Anything can happen after Monday! Minor upgrades this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

it'll be a long drawn out affair, there'll be plenty of NW cold and in the end I think SM and TEITS will have called it right - easterly, but from a retrogressing scandi to greeny via arctic. Notwithstanding the fallout from this Noreaster bomb in the states. Aftermath of this calls chaos theory, wouldn't be surprised to see the arrival of Shannon Entropy into the next week's terminology.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Good UKMO but no faith without GFS, or GEFS.  If ECM swings back colder for one I won’t believe it, however it Defo makes the 06z and 12zs more interesting .

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
7 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

UKMO declared world's best model (from ICON yesterday and GEM the day before)

 

Current rankings

1. UKMO

2. ICON

3. GEM

4. GFS

5. ECMWF

Like it eagle!!

Its a cracking run this morning thats for sure :)

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

my take  of things are deep into  f1 is that france,germany,  etc are deep  cold  and possible it could come our way

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

With no comments, I guess the ECM isbt following the UKMO!! ??

Its trying to build those heights and send them north at 144 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

With no comments, I guess the ECM isbt following the UKMO!! ??

Yes, it drops to 6 in the ranking. ("what does it show in my area" method)

Edited by The Eagle
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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

With no comments, I guess the ECM isbt following the UKMO!! ??

Yes huge backtrack to 144- not quite There though-

Eagle

 Can you slot Aperge in there @2/3 rd

thanks

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

With no comments, I guess the ECM isbt following the UKMO!! ??

All 3 at t120 and you can see that the shape of the block is different. Ukmo is less likely to slide se. Ecm is more like gfs on this run imo but it's not a done deal as it's to far out. At t144 the differences become more apparent but until t120 is sorted beyond is pointless because this will have big impacts. Ukmo is the underdog at the mo but it is 3rd round fa cup weekend. Got to love an underdog:D ¥¥¥ agreed SM.

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Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

168 certaintly not without interest. A messy scene however with the residual +ve heights would take a while to get cold air in place unlike UKMO. Azores ridge wants to shoot up heights to NE a lifeline trend emerging?

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Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

For the record and speaking from a fair amount of experience here, the UKMO tends to be about the best at calling easterlies correct in terms of will it happen or not. I remember it picking a scandi high as far back as Dec 2002 way before the other models got there and there's been quite a few times it's said NO to the other models too in recent years.

The fact that UKMO is basically there with it (plus it's been trending there last 36 hours) would make me think it's now a high probability. Easterlies are never nailed on until at least t72 though.

Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well I did say a few days ago I'd call an easterly if the UKMO showed a Scandi High at T120 - and it does show exactly that today! 

However the evolution still looks too difficult. I'd say the progression of the UKMO to T144 must be the outside opportunity.

I've been reminded this week of how eastern blocks are actually more of a pain than a blessing for snow! Too far west and it's just cold and dry. Too far east and it's wet and mild. Bang on and it can be the ultimate for cold/snow but that seems to be the 1 in 10 option - usually they're just a little too far east and lock us into the mild.

This event, to me, will probably fall into the "wet and mild" category in the D6-D10. But they are b****rs to model, and that keeps me looking...

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well I did say a few days ago I'd call an easterly if the UKMO showed a Scandi High at T120 - and it does show exactly that today! 

However the evolution still looks too difficult. I'd say the progression of the UKMO to T144 must be the outside opportunity.

I've been reminded this week of how eastern blocks are actually more of a pain than a blessing for snow! Too far west and it's just cold and dry. Too far east and it's wet and mild. Bang on and it can be the ultimate for cold/snow but that seems to be the 1 in 10 option - usually they're just a little too far east and lock us into the mild.

This event, to me, will probably fall into the latter category. But they are b****rs to model, and that keeps me looking...

true - details we wait next days......

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

All the NWP suite this morning seems to be making more of the block!!

Think there is going to be more twists and turns over the next day or two -

EC ends with a pretty cold North westerly and temps well below average for mid January- 

 

Cant post the temp deviation plot at day 10 but it looks cold!!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

All the NWP suite this morning seems to be making more of the block!!

Think there is going to be more twists and turns over the next day or two -

EC ends with a pretty cold North westerly and temps well below average for mid January- 

 

Cant post the temp deviation plot at day 10 but it looks cold!!

yes seems PV air

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Edited by Dennis
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I agree about the ukmo 00z, it's building blocks for a prolonged cold spell by T+144..let's hope the other models move towards it today!:)

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I agree about the ukmo 00z, it's building blocks for a prolonged cold spell by T+144..let's hope the other models move towards it today!:)

it shows block but its likely to move away to EZE; also seen by EC

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Edited by Dennis
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS op and EC op look cold enough for snow by day 10- 

NIGHT time day 11

GFSOPUK00_264_17.png

DAY AFTER MAX TEMPS!

GFSOPUK00_276_17.png

NIGHT AFTER THAT

GFSOPUK00_288_17.png

think its fair to say GFS 00z is very cold and very snowy in FI this morning..

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I agree about the ukmo 00z, it's building blocks for a prolonged cold spell by T+144..let's hope the other models move towards it today!:)

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Nice chart Frosty. Hope this comes off for you lot. Think a dryer spell with some frost would be welcome by most in the UK. Looks increasingly solid on this run from UKMO. See if the other follow. Also source of surface air will be pretty cold to say the least.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS op and EC op look cold enough for snow by day 10- 

NIGHT time day 11

GFSOPUK00_264_17.png

DAY AFTER MAX TEMPS!

GFSOPUK00_276_17.png

NIGHT AFTER THAT

GFSOPUK00_288_17.png

think its fair to say GFS 00z is very cold and very snowy in FI this morning..

 

yes specialy around 17/18 Jan HIGH chanche of snow - lets see how things come

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Dennis said:

yes specialy around 17/18 Jan HIGH chanche of snow - lets see how things come

Absolutely Dennis- nothing is resolved at 120 this morning :)

I was just highlighting even if we don't get a ukmo evolution both the other big 2 agree on a cold north wester mid term ..

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

All the NWP suite this morning seems to be making more of the block!!

Think there is going to be more twists and turns over the next day or two -

EC ends with a pretty cold North westerly and temps well below average for mid January- 

 

Cant post the temp deviation plot at day 10 but it looks cold!!

ECU1-240.GIFECU0-240.GIF?06-12

I can't remember if it that it is colder at the 500hpa level it has an impact on the snow level lower down. There is certainly very cold air aloft. 

Edited by Weather-history
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