Model output discussion - into 2018

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Funny that, as there's a lot of chatter about a Greenland high coming. Source: J Cohen & M Ventrice on Twitter. Pretty reliable sources. 

I like the look of that

 

[MildCarlilse]

16 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Still got snow on the ground from last week and guess what its snowing outside as I type this. so no we don't need mega cold uppers and no we don't need a beast from the east.......... clearly what you all need to do is move. I'm sorry but I'm gonna say this right now every year the very folk in this forum that live up a hill in the north get forgotten and I find it totally disrespectful that we are never mentioned during these cold months. so far here in the North East of Scotland ( still part of the UK ) we have had plenty of snow fall and days upon days of ice days and what I'm getting at is many on here will disregard any type of winter weather unless its smashing it down in the south well I'm sorry but its not a 1980's or a 1990's thing or a new LIA its just called the weather and if those of you in the south don't like it well tough super dupere suck it up move to a place that has winter weather or accept that it only happens once in a lifetime 

Agreed Moresnow.All too often anywhere north of Manchester is the other side of the world and insignificant.Anyhow I find this possible return to cold zonal very interesting as it is unusual for its persistence,almost the new normal and taking the place of the southwesterly.

[BlueHedgehog074]

It’s a shame you can’t see the whole European view on the UKMO on its 168 hour chart to see what any possible blocking would look like to our North-East. But the latest one shows a Westerly flow over the U.K. with Low Pressure to the North (likely with blustery showers over Western areas) and a cut off Low between the two High Pressure cells to the South-West in the Atlantic. The Low looks as though it would probably get caught up in the Jet and merge with the Low Pressure areas over Northern UK.

Pretty much has the Atlantic breaking through, although the Westerly flow over the U.K. looks fairly cool with no blow-torch long drawn South-Westerly flow.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

It’s a shame you can’t see the whole European view on the UKMO on its 168 hour chart to see what any possible blocking would look like to our North-East. But the latest one shows a Westerly flow over the U.K. with Low Pressure to the North (likely with blustery showers over Western areas) and a cut off Low between the two High Pressure cells to the South-West in the Atlantic. The Low looks as though it would probably get caught up in the Jet and merge with the Low Pressure areas over Northern UK.

Pretty much has the Atlantic breaking through, although the Westerly flow over the U.K. looks fairly cool with no blow-torch long drawn South-Westerly flow.

I think that's the 00z run DRL.

[WINTRY WALES]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I like the look of that

 

When Michael refers to OUR mid January thaw....is he referring to us in the UK or over the pond in the US??

[steveinsussex]

Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

When Michael refers to OUR mid January thaw....is he referring to us in the UK or over the pond in the US??

The USA

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

When Michael refers to OUR mid January thaw....is he referring to us in the UK or over the pond in the US??

America...

There's nothing to thaw here

[kumquat]

USA ^^

[WINTRY WALES]

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

The USA

Great ?

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

When Michael refers to OUR mid January thaw....is he referring to us in the UK or over the pond in the US??

A big thaw for the US after a good dumping in the NE just recently

you can visit here with all  the information

 

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

America...

There's nothing to thaw here

There is in North East Scotland though.

 

Horrible JMA this evening, an early taste of Spring for all of us.

Edited January 5, 2018 by snowray

[tight isobar]

13 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I like the look of that

 

A great amalgamation!..

And an, evolutionary road is stretching towards -similar formats.

[BlueHedgehog074]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I think that's the 00z run DRL.

Ah, fair enough, lol. I’m tempted to edit that chart and put ‘12Z’ on it just to confuse everyone ?

Nah, seriously, still getting a hang of the site that those charts came from :). 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

There is in North East Scotland though.

 

Horrible JMA this evening.

A thaw for Scotland then

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

There is in North East Scotland though.

 

Horrible JMA this evening.

At 264 hours away I don’t think it really matters. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, DiagonalRedLine said:

Ah, fair enough, lol. I’m tempted to edit that chart and put ‘12Z’ on it just to confuse everyone ?

Nah, seriously, still getting a hang of the site that those charts came from :). 

LOL

me too,have you the link,i keep on forgeting to bookmark the bloody thing

[abruzzi spur]

1 minute ago, Ramp said:

Don't worry pal, you'll get your snow soon enough ?

Ha! Good if I did but really don't mind.

[karlos1983]

Another rogue ECM perhaps....

[BlueHedgehog074]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

LOL

me too,have you the link,i keep on forgeting to bookmark the bloody thing

Yep, just the one right here in the post below by @koeleboe  

It’s so easy to forget to bookmark particular sites at times, so I know how it feels, lol

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgenDAT/2018/

Edited January 5, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Yep, just the one right here in the post below  

It’s so easy to forget to bookmark particular sites at times, so I know how it feels, lol

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgenDAT/2018/

Thanks DRL,had to do some looking but found it in the end,BOOKMARKED

still hasn't updated though

Edited January 5, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Team Jo]

Folks, I feel I’ve walked into a banter thread. Oh, wait it’s not! 

I know it’s January and everyone is back to work and sad and looking for the next cold spell, but PLEASE can we keep this to model discussion, there’s at least 15 posts I’m about to move/delete  and sorry in advance but I’m probably not going to PM every single one of you to say sorry and give a justification because it’s Friday night and I’m tired.

its been a really long week for model watching, and I think the unusual setups are cause for really great conversations. I kind of feel we all need to get up off the floor and just get over the ECM failure. Let’s move on.

and be nice.

[BlueHedgehog074]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Thanks DRL,had to do some looking but found it in the end,BOOKMARKED

still hasn't updated though

That’s good

Guess we’ll probably have to wait till tomorrow for the next 00Z run. Hopefully it will have joined the GFS at the pub! ?

It’s a mystery what’s happened to the 12Z 168 hour chart tonight tho (assuming the site does contain the 12Z 168 hour UKMO runs)

Edited January 5, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine
Adding extra info

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Guess we’ll probably have to wait till tomorrow for the next 00Z run. Hopefully it will have joined the GFS at the pub! ?

It’s a mystery what’s happened to the 12Z 168 hour chart tonight tho (assuming the site does contain the 12Z 168 hour UKMO runs) 

 

Maybe they are adjusting and thinking...no the 00z ins't right,i can imagine that they are running all over the place to try and get the latest data after the storm in NE America and for that they are adjusting that we will get a right ol dumping just like they did

simples

[Penrith Snow]

Ok,so after all the upheavals of the last few days GFS and ECM agree on cold zonality by day 9.

Suits me fine, that half arsed easterly was never going to amount to much anyway!

Andy

[tight isobar]

Awaiting-compare of ens..

00z/6z/12z/18z-sets.

Will compare and elaborate..

Im of the notion, its going the correct route- cold/potential-eye opening! 05-01-2018:

Edited January 5, 2018 by tight isobar