Model output discussion - into 2018

[koeleboe]

12 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

I’m actually curious to know how the UKMO 168 hour chart can be accessed. Seen a few people use them in the last few weeks. Been looking on various sites, such as wunderground.com, with no luck ?

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgenDAT/2018/

Choose date/run. Search for UKM2 (lant) and got it

[January Snowstorm]

Very interesting run sofar with heights rising to our North and East.

Yes uppers are poor but synoptically looks great

[BlueHedgehog074]

3 minutes ago, koeleboe said:

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgenDAT/2018/

Choose date/run. Search for UKM2 (lant) and got it

Cheers!  

Edit: GFS 18Z definitely more promising compared to some previous runs with more disruption to Lows in the Atlantic

Edited January 5, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[Snowmadsam]

1 minute ago, ShortWaveHell said:

It’s rolling out alright ... of the pub ...with another evolution 

Dam! you got the photo of me on New years eve too! It is interesting....

[Matthew Gill]

The warm air pushing up from the med has really dispelled the cold uppers across all of Europe.

[feb1991blizzard]

Rain.

[snowray]

I think that the Scottish ski resorts will do ok out of this.

Well spotted batman, Ski it is.

Edited January 5, 2018 by snowray

[Daniel*]

Block is too east really but undercut pontential?

[tight isobar]

Mouth watering synoptics, 

Expance' of heights gain..and we continue with polar height-in rounded form.

The twist is now pc waa weakens..and expance is allowed to chrge for greenland east...

With have so many options going forwards its quite bizzare.

Scandi heights looking unlikely for notable easterly feed...but pat our backs going forward..and offer the michelin star menu!???

Possibly???

Edited January 5, 2018 by tight isobar

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

I think that the Scottish sky resorts will do ok out of this.

I think the SKY resorts will get loads - the SKI resorts will get some too I bet lol

[bluearmy]

There are no low uppers around - that isn't going to change early next week. Later next week it's possible that a weakfish flow could see lower cold pools developing than currently shown but that's likely to be very hit and miss. the lack of consistency away from the high heights over scandi and strengthening Atlantic is fairly fascinating 

[snowray]

Unfortunately the HP has sunk so far so quickly that we have what is more of a Euro high in a weeks time.

[Snowmadsam]

Here comes the potential slushmaker in the 18z FI. Let's see if it has had a good time at the pub

[tvh3382]

21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

BBC do not get their forecasts from Meto any more so no surprise that their forecasts differ. BBC Will also be deriving their forecast from 12z Mogreps, UKMO and ECM so no surprise they are forecasting Atlantic to win by end of the week. Personally I am looking at the models now and hoping for some decent cold zonal weather - which as we saw before and just after Christmas can deliver snow to many areas! 

Yes they do at the moment.  Was due to change in April last year but due to some teething problems it has been delayed until this spring. The forecasts for the BBC will come from MeteoGroup.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Here comes the potential slushmaker in the 18z FI. Let's see if it has had a good time at the pub

Could be a tonking coming up here.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Could be a tonking coming up here.

There is enough blocking to our NE  to allow for PM attacks...previous gfs runs and the recent Ec op did.

[andymusic]

HUGE HARRY HILL - FIGHTTTTTTTTTTTTTT - with the undercutting low on the left and the High on the right - who's gonna win????????

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

There is enough blocking to our NE  to allow for PM attacks...previous gfs runs and the recent Ec op did.

Watch the Eastern side of the low as it elongates, theres a mild sector to the East but if it digs far south enough so the flow is coming in of land rather than sea - ie S-SE rather than SW - it could deliver a huge tonking.

[bluearmy]

Just now, andymusic said:

HUGE HARRY HILL - FIGHTTTTTTTTTTTTTT - with the undercutting low on the left and the High on the right - who's gonna win????????

Would be surprised if so far into the run that the Atlantic didn't - if meteociel wakes up we might see.  

[Cleeve Hill]

34 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

Good old gfs. Really deepening that low by Greenland.

Funny that, as there's a lot of chatter about a Greenland high coming. Source: J Cohen & M Ventrice on Twitter. Pretty reliable sources. 

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Still got snow on the ground from last week and guess what its snowing outside as I type this. so no we don't need mega cold uppers and no we don't need a beast from the east.......... clearly what you all need to do is move. I'm sorry but I'm gonna say this right now every year the very folk in this forum that live up a hill in the north get forgotten and I find it totally disrespectful that we are never mentioned during these cold months. so far here in the North East of Scotland ( still part of the UK ) we have had plenty of snow fall and days upon days of ice days and what I'm getting at is many on here will disregard any type of winter weather unless its smashing it down in the south well I'm sorry but its not a 1980's or a 1990's thing or a new LIA its just called the weather and if those of you in the south don't like it well tough super dupere suck it up move to a place that has winter weather or accept that it only happens once in a lifetime 

Very well said. I just mentioned the Scottish Ski resorts and was about to say that high ground in NE Scotland should do well out of this. And I am officially looking for a very high hill to move to!

 

More snowfall and cold temps arriving here for NE Scotland!

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Would be surprised if so far into the run that the Atlantic didn't - if meteociel wakes up we might see.  

Normally Easterlies - that modelled low undercutting would paste the UK completely - feeding winds back on itself dragging in the cold continental air - but the low uppers just aren't quite there - room for upgrades - MAYBE!!!!! - looks like we're more in danger of getting pasted with the pm air behind the low

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Funny that, as there's a lot of chatter about a Greenland high coming. Source: J Cohen & M Ventrice on Twitter. Pretty reliable sources. 

I hope that's not to do with the last two fi gfs runs ......

back to the 18z and assume that the blocking will be a bit stronger than showing ....... as I said earlier, could still be interesting in the longer term 

[Purga]

Continuing interesting FI with trough diving NW/SE into Europe and heights developing to the north - Greenland even...

The dreaded 'potential' word

[Cleeve Hill]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I hope that's not to do with the last two fi gfs runs ......

back to the 18z and assume that the blocking will be a bit stronger than showing ....... as I said earlier, could still be interesting in the longer term 

Don't think so. It was MJO related