Model output discussion - into 2018

[Banbury]

6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening ! Well the Gfs has the Victory  over the recent output as opposed to the little ecm. The Atlantic has won for now ,

Not really 

[ANYWEATHER]

36 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Despite the huge recent changes in the models my post above from NYE still stands. Still unconvinced we have seen the last of the changes around the +168 mark especially when viewing the UKMO. However even if the ECM/GFS/GEM are right a cold, zonal spell looks on the cards as I mention above.

Indeed, I cant see any sustained block to our North East due the incredible cold in northeast America , the jet too strong and washes anything blocky to our northeast far away

[snowray]

Yes but the 18z can be the new trend setter at times, it was spot on the other evening and preempted the capitulation of the other models on the following 00z runs. I have a strong feeling in my water this evening that the cold may be back on the menu on tonights 18z by D7/8.

[ANYWEATHER]

7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Not really 

Thankyou for your reply , but please can you reiterate?Or show us some examples Please

Edited January 5, 2018 by ANYWEATHER

[SMU]

Anyone got UKMO 168 before the 18z

[snowray]

ICON has started us off pretty well this evening, T120 looking a lot better there with the undercut.

[Scandinavian High.]

I felt that the meto update today was  positive today for cold and just seen  long range BBC outlook and where in south westerly by end of next week .

[bluearmy]

Just looking back at the past two days eps mean heights comparing day 14 to 12 all the way down to 8 and 6 - looking at the scandi ridge and it is more defined, sharper and further north all the way down. Day 14 which hardly had any ridge now shows one etc etc 

Basically, writing off this upper ridge could be a mistake and given that we know the Atlantic is going to come barrelling in, we could see some very interesting week two charts over the next week. 

[Sweatyman]

4 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I felt that the meto update today was  positive today for cold and just seen  long range BBC outlook and where in south westerly by end of next week .

Useless! Bang some heads together I think. Not the 1st time we've had conflicting information 

[Snowman.]

10 minutes ago, snowray said:

ICON has started us off pretty well this evening, T120 looking a lot better there with the undercut.

Looks like UKMO if anything better.

[tinybill]

2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Useless! Bang some heads together I think. Not the 1st time we've had conflicting information 

all eyes  bbc  news  24  2155 weather  forcast  for next week  normaly pretty  good !!

[Banbury]

28 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Thankyou for your reply , but please can you reiterate?Or show us some examples Please

I would say the UK was the better performing model in this recent saga

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Looks like UKMO if anything better.

Had a slider look about it.

[Matthew Gill]

Good old gfs. Really deepening that low by Greenland.

Edited January 5, 2018 by Matthew Gill

[Bradowl]

13 minutes ago, tinybill said:

all eyes  bbc  news  24  2155 weather  forcast  for next week  normaly pretty  good !!

 

They didn't seem that confident with what's going to happen... Becoming mild with Snow possible.  

[BlueHedgehog074]

31 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Anyone got UKMO 168 before the 18z

I’m actually curious to know how the UKMO 168 hour chart can be accessed. Seen a few people use them in the last few weeks. Been looking on various sites, such as wunderground.com, with no luck ?

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

 

They didn't seem that confident with what's going to happen... Becoming mild with Snow possible.  

Very on the fence with just about all types of weather quoted in the summary.

It doesnt follow the meto update much.

[tight isobar]

2 hours ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Apparently a lady rang the Met Office earlier this week and said there is an Easterly on the way.  Don't worry there isn't......

BRILLIANT..???

[Tim Bland]

Just now, Had Worse said:

Very on the fence with just about all types of weather quoted in the summary.

It doesnt follow the meto update much.

BBC do not get their forecasts from Meto any more so no surprise that their forecasts differ. BBC Will also be deriving their forecast from 12z Mogreps, UKMO and ECM so no surprise they are forecasting Atlantic to win by end of the week. Personally I am looking at the models now and hoping for some decent cold zonal weather - which as we saw before and just after Christmas can deliver snow to many areas! 

[Snowmadsam]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

BBC do not get their forecasts from Meto any more so no surprise that their forecasts differ. BBC Will also be deriving their forecast from 12z Mogreps, UKMO and ECM so no surprise they are forecasting Atlantic to win by end of the week. Personally I am looking at the models now and hoping for some decent cold zonal weather - which as we saw before and just after Christmas can deliver snow to many areas! 

Incorrect, contract extended until March after frustrations with Tender agreements.

Let's get back to models with the GFS 18z now rolling out....

[snowray]

Much better by D6, but where have all the colder uppers gone?

[bluearmy]

The 18z not uninteresting in the mid term 

[Purga]

Interesting GFS 18z run so far, comparison at +144hrs

Who do we trust now? GFS or ECM?

not that I'm hinting of course

[danm]

2 hours ago, snowray said:

Sit back and consider something for a second will you please. Look on a map, can you see Switzerland there, well its just north of the very warm Mediterranean sea. You will also notice the coastal cities of Genova and Nice (Nizza), just north of these cities are the Maritime Alps that rise up pretty quickly, 1000m, 2000m, up to Mt Blanc (Bianco) which is well over 4,000m, here Switzerland starts. Now imagine just for a moment that them there Alps were only as high as the North Downs, or Chilterns, so 200-300m max, do you really think that they would get so much snowfall in that part of Europe that provides for skiing and winter sports uninterrupted from November to April and constant snow cover, by that mild Sea?

I simply don't get how people insist that altitude has got nothing to do with it, the Alps are an extreme example but as we saw earlier it snows in many European cities that are high up, (500-1,000m) and even close to mild seas at times, with uppers that can be as high as +3c. They don't need deep cold do they because they have altitude on their side, where as many parts of the UK struggle to get snow at -5/6-6c at times. Of course I agree with you that our location, the gulf stream, etc don't help much either, but that is only part of the picture.

 

Anyway, ECM seems to be moving in the right direction for some deep cold to be moving this way at last by D10.

Well it’s quite obvious if you have one of the highest mountain ranges in the world (the Alps) you’re going to get snow. 

I didn’t say it has “nothing” to do with altitude. I said altitude is not the main reason we don’t get much snow. There are are plenty of places around the world at our latitude or even further south that get a lot more snow than us. The reason is the UK has a temperate, maritime climate. We are an island surround by water warmed by the Gulf Stream. We do not have a continental climate. Hence cold air is significantly modified before it reaches our shores. 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Much better by D6, but where have all the colder uppers gone?

Sub zero uppers with continental drift is fine by me ........... shame we don't see that earlier next week!