Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Quick Tropospheric Response

In that case....

EADC7BB2-0898-43A2-8379-DD9BE5C31621.thumb.jpeg.599f2e44a39f748d276773a8e48e749a.jpeg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes it must have been practically instant, and so was the 2013 Jan one - 6th Jan SSW, Jan teens - cold spell arrives.

The 2013 SSW was spotted well well out by the Metoffice...back in the middle of December 2012 the Metoffice were briefing agencies about the January cold. I know this because a local council worker (gritting) told me they had been briefed. It arrived bang on cue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Image result for image of an audi quattro in the air

I think GP should send the missile as this is what happened last time I sent one to nuke the Trop

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Just now, Glacier Point said:

Keep an  eye on that flattish anomalous ridge in the central Pacific. GEFS and GFS both moving it eastwards through day 9 - sure sign of evolution in the MJO. The ideal for subsequent amplification is for this ridge to weaken and a second ridge to develop in the North Pacific towards the Aleutians.

Many reasons to be positive for cold going into the final third of the month.

Short but sweet! Cheers GP! :)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Where did all them little snow symbols all go?:sorry:

graphe_ens3-2.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The 2013 SSW was spotted well well out by the Metoffice...back in the middle of December 2012 the Metoffice were briefing agencies about the January cold. I know this because a local council worker (gritting) told me they had been briefed. It arrived bang on cue.

Yes, I remember well - I told people it was coming, but maybe if this starts getting modelled consistently and on their own output, they will mention something for February, don't forget that wording has been there for a while now, it might be out of date and due an update.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
3 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Keep an  eye on that flattish anomalous ridge in the central Pacific. GEFS and GFS both moving it eastwards through day 9 - sure sign of evolution in the MJO. The ideal for subsequent amplification is for this ridge to weaken and a second ridge to develop in the North Pacific towards the Aleutians.

Many reasons to be positive for cold going into the final third of the month.

Can Ian Pennell pull it out the bag again? Pretty sure he is going for a decent cold spell later this month.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Where did all them little snow symbols all go?:sorry:

graphe_ens3-2.gif

Here :cold-emoji:

Diagramme GEFS

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Here :cold-emoji:

Diagramme GEFS

45% snow risk with +3 uppers...

I know the UK often seems to defy weather physics but still...

Nice job :p

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Here :cold-emoji:

Diagramme GEFS

Where is that Ens from? I'm moving there!!!:rofl::D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Another good one for you, Western Alps near Cuneo Italy.:whistling:

graphe_ens3.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow or Heat
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
1 minute ago, snowray said:

Where is that Ens from? I'm moving there!!!:rofl::D

Northeast of Iceland :rofl:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Thats the real reason we don't get much snow in the UK, Altitude, most places where people live are at or near sea level.

Edited by snowray
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Getting better

13F7EAAD-2FEE-4483-8C52-F69DB56034B2.thumb.gif.e87962afa113c5b0a2fbef6a17c904f6.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, karlos1983 said:

Getting better

13F7EAAD-2FEE-4483-8C52-F69DB56034B2.thumb.gif.e87962afa113c5b0a2fbef6a17c904f6.gif

Thing is we keep losing the near term snow symbols but maintain the ones in the D7/8 plus time frame, in other words FI. Ohhh well.:nonono:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
14 minutes ago, snowray said:

Where is that Ens from? I'm moving there!!!:rofl::D

Pyrenees   1576m who needs uppers?

Edited by winterof79
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, snowray said:

Thing is we keep losing the near term snow symbols but maintain the ones in the D7/8 plus time frame, in other words FI. Ohhh well.:nonono:

We need to forget next week delivering snow imo and look further ahead. 144 onwards.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Thats the real reason we don't get much snow in the UK, Altitude, most places where people live are at or near sea level.

They can get tons of snow at sea level in New York City, and its a lot further south than the UK. Its where the UK is located thats the problem, not solely altitude.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Location: Barling, Essex
10 minutes ago, snowray said:

Thats the real reason we don't get much snow in the UK, Altitude, most places where people live are at or near sea level.

The reason is the Atlantic and the weather predominantly coming from the West.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, karlos1983 said:

We need to forget next week delivering snow imo and look further ahead. 144 onwards.

Ohh I'm fully away of that Karlos.

Maybe The almighty ECM will be the "on form" model this evening? Come on ECM, give us your best effort! :laugh:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
7 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

12z ECM coming out soon, I'm sure we will see a complete turn around to a strong easterly. 

Another essential run pahahahahahaa!!!

I'll be watching that GFS trend closely....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
16 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

They can get tons of snow at sea level in New York City, and its a lot further south than the UK. Its where the UK is located thats the problem, not solely altitude.

True, but I'm just making a comparison nearer to home, if we had the plunge of cold air that the USA gets every years I can assure you that it would snow in the UK alright, even at below sea level. -20/-24c uppers around New York remember.

Its just that we would get a lot more in the way of snow events from cold zonality for example, and marginal events would be much less marginal if there was more higher ground, even 100m can make a big difference. Steve M has talked about this before, thats why he's moved to the Kent Alps at about 150m asl from where he lived before at sea level. 

Don't get my wrong, I'd much prefer the NYC style cold plunges and the PV sitting over us, but they are after all very rare in our neck of the woods, small Island surrounded be sea or whatever the scenario.

gfsna-0-6.png

gfsna-1-6.png

Edited by snowray
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...