Model output discussion - into 2018

[cheshire snow]

Not much Mild showing on the 06GFS In fact it is quite a cool run with some over night frost,and apart from the odd occasion that the Atlantic comes through Looking quite Dry.

and as per @prolongedSnowLover the block does look slightly stronger on this run.

C.S

Edited January 5, 2018 by cheshire snow

[Snowman.]

GFS now has what I've been asking for! A shortwave going under the high heading west. 

[pureasthedriven]

21 minutes ago, wintermaster said:

Thats stange because i live in Crawley and we had Lying snow in Jan last year.

Horley is the micro-climate from hell! 

[nick sussex]

The key timeframe is when we see the trough approach and what happens to shortwave energy.

The models always make a drama over this . If that shortwave actually cleared se and didn’t hang around and attach to the main trough then the outcome would have likely got this thread buzzing !

In that instance a lot more energy goes se wards and the trough tilt would have been more negative .

The actual high lobe will sink se and  won’t effect us but it’s the ridge extension  to the north that’s more important.

Enough here to make sure coldies turn up for the 12hrs.

I don’t think we can manage a miracle but it’s really the angle of the approachng trough that could still change and then we’d see where that could lead.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

If folk ‘believe’ the ECM now as they ‘believed’ it the other day....how come it is now suddenly incredibly accurate?  Plenty of running in this....but this isn’t the main course.  The Atlantic will win out.....later....but what will that bring?  Lots more changing around ahead, ECM way too quick imo.  No beast but no 2 day collapse either

 

BFTP  

[carinthian]

15 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Maybe this is what they had in mind. Might as well stop there at 144t.  Upper 850mb temp profile also shows widely below 0C temp isotherms on Thursdays chart. Lots still be resolved yet and still hope for fans of colder weather but hopefully less wind and rain for you guys.

C

Think this is a upgrade latest run from GFS for lovers of colder weather anyway but probably best look no further that 144t. However, from what I see not a mild run.

C

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Think this is a upgrade latest run from GFS for lovers of colder weather anyway but probably best look no further that 144t. However, from what I see not a mild run.

C

Got an update from your service yet mate!!give us something to cheer about!!

[nick sussex]

The one thing we can rule out is an easterly of any note in the next ten days however what we’re trying to do is get the jet angle se . 

We still need heights to the ne to help do that, it’s possible we could see any milder mush period shortened or even shelved altogether if we get a more favorable upstream  trough approach .

 

[Frosty.]

I can't see anything mild next week on the 6z,  temps struggling to average at best and early next week looks mainly dry followed by occasional bands of rain ☔which weaken as they push east, a risk of some snow on higher ground in the north and some overnight frosts / ice during the dry spells.

[winterof79]

23 minutes ago, karyo said:

At least the 6z re-introduces some continental air and this time the uppers are just below 0. Better than the ECM for sure but still not be right.

Hence why the professionals still show the risk of snow/snow events and why we should all concentrate a little more on 5 days at most. Trends thereafter like a building arctic high and dissolving PV over Canada

Edited January 5, 2018 by winterof79

[Johnp]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The upshot of all this nonsense with the ECM anyway is that its chewed up most of January and we are going to require the services of S.S.W but that needs to hurry up if its going to happen because of lag times involved.

It's the fifth of January.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just to add, down the line when the Atlantic gets through I think we will see unusually cold uppers (for Atlantic weather) associated, something to watch for.  Nick S makes a good point along with C

 

BFTP

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

It's the fifth of January.

Indeed, not even half way through winter yet.. but I see where Feb is coming from in regard to SSW, we don't want one to late or we risk it being a bit of waste. However we don't necessarily need any SSW, especially given the lack of solar activity etc etc, but it would be helpful!

Edited January 5, 2018 by karlos1983

[kumquat]

.....waiting for TEITS drawing of seagulls be like......

Interesting high pressure at Pole and smashed vortex increasingly being modelled for near future.... 6z gfs 240 hrs

[frosty ground]

The 06z Run with lots of cold air over northern Scandi.

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Indeed, not even half way through winter yet.. but I see where Feb is coming from in regard to SSW, we don't want one to late or we risk it being a bit of waste. However we don't necessarily need any SSW, especially given the lack of solar activity etc etc. 

I see where you are coming from but I would say mid Wales and the midlands to name a couple of regions have done well without any help from an SSW .

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, kumquat said:

.....waiting for TEITS drawing of seagulls be like......

Interesting high pressure at Pole and smashed vortex increasingly being modelled for near future.... 6z gfs 240 hrs

He's working on it 

Edited January 5, 2018 by karlos1983

[carinthian]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Got an update from your service yet mate!!give us something to cheer about!!

Spoke to them this morning. There short term range of charts had a low forming off the SW of England by Thursday and temperature profile was below the anomaly average for much of the British Isles. Will get another update from the shift forecaster ( she) who speaks good English and get more thoughts on there longer term prognosis and snow model results, which by the way have produced some remarkable accurate results for the resort yesterday.

 C

[TEITS]

3 minutes ago, kumquat said:

.....waiting for TEITS drawing of seagulls be like......

Interesting high pressure at Pole and smashed vortex increasingly being modelled for near future.... 6z gfs 240 hrs

If im going to have the Tut taken out of me then I won't bother.

Suffice to say the mistake everyone is making is they are ignoring the fact the UKMO at +144 is very different to every model at that timeframe. The +144 like last night is a text book classic of an impending 1980s type E,ly. Just wait and watch how the high to the N will extend SW with its associated cold pool whilst at the same time any atlantic intrusion heads SE. The date of arrival for a classic 1980s E,ly is around 15th Jan!

[Methuselah]

This morning's GFS06Z looks quite interesting, not in that there's any sign of a raging 1987esque Beast from The East - because clearly there isn't! - but in that we spend almost the entire run on the cold side of the 0C 850hPa isotherm...And, as we all know, snow events can and do happen with Uppers of around only -3C/-4C??

So, IMHO, all is far from lost!

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, TEITS said:

If im going to have the Tut taken out of me then I won't bother.

Suffice to say the mistake everyone is making is they are ignoring the fact the UKMO at +144 is very different to every model at that timeframe. The +144 like last night is a text book classic of an impending 1980s type E,ly. Just wait and watch how the high to the N will extend SW with its associated cold pool whilst at the same time any atlantic intrusion heads SE. The date of arrival for a classic 1980s E,ly is around 15th Jan!

There are a number of developing dynamics that are shouting a quick change in modeling.

Some very interesting synoptics rearing.

Going to await 12z suites before further divulge/analysis.

I look forwards to your own analysis teits.

See you all for 12z...

Edited January 5, 2018 by tight isobar

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, TEITS said:

If im going to have the Tut taken out of me then I won't bother.

Suffice to say the mistake everyone is making is they are ignoring the fact the UKMO at +144 is very different to every model at that timeframe. The +144 like last night is a text book classic of an impending 1980s type E,ly. Just wait and watch how the high to the N will extend SW with its associated cold pool whilst at the same time any atlantic intrusion heads SE. The date of arrival for a classic 1980s E,ly is around 15th Jan!

I don't think anything was meant TEITS mate.

Here is a link to British snowfalls.It you can be bothered  check out how many "MID JAN" events there have been even in average winters.....enjoy folks

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

Edited January 5, 2018 by winterof79

[Day 10]

15 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Not much Mild showing on the 06GFS In fact it is quite a cool run with some over night frost,and apart from the odd occasion that the Atlantic comes through Looking quite Dry.

and as per @prolongedSnowLover the block does look slightly stronger on this run.

C.S

Yes agree CS.

I think as we sit here today there are still subtle differences at 72/96 with for me the GFS now looking the better output with the block that bit further north and a bit more robust.

Apart from the ECM the block isn't really getting flattened or shunted back and is holding it's ground in one form or another, so the longer it does so then hopefully we can get that magic undercut somewhere along the line. I still don't think it's as simple as the block being pushed away or flattened, but as ever we'll see.

I do think we are still in the game and patience is needed.

 

[kumquat]

3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

If im going to have the Tut taken out of me then I won't bother.

Suffice to say the mistake everyone is making is they are ignoring the fact the UKMO at +144 is very different to every model at that timeframe. The +144 like last night is a text book classic of an impending 1980s type E,ly. Just wait and watch how the high to the N will extend SW with its associated cold pool whilst at the same time any atlantic intrusion heads SE. The date of arrival for a classic 1980s E,ly is around 15th Jan!

Apologies if that came off like that, TEITS. Was genuinely excited to see what was coming. I love it when old hands ( I mean that affectionately!) like yourself puts pen to paper to show us your thoughts.

[karlos1983]

Just now, kumquat said:

Apologies if that came off like that, TEITS. Was genuinely excited to see what was coming. I love it when old hands ( I mean that affectionately!) like yourself puts pen to paper to show us your thoughts.

Ditto