Model output discussion - into 2018

[karlos1983]

Some nice purbs flicking through. What a way to end today’s rather disappointing output. ?

1 or 2 options on the table lol

Edited January 4, 2018 by karlos1983

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Some nice purbs flicking through. What a way to end today’s rather disappointing output. ?

Sums up model watching in a nutshell doesn't it?

The models had turned and the tide was against us, but just as all hope was lost... along came the GFS 18z. Classic netweather coldchasing.

[alexisj9]

30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Evening all, 12Zs tomorrow is crunch time for me. Can't believe there's no chance the Atlantic low won't disrupt more and go under:

Of course it will, you can see it's going that way. No chance t will just fill in situ from where it is.

[shaky]

Anyone ready to post the ensembles yet!!850temps!!

[beefy201]

Rather disappointed to see the slaying that Siberian icy blast took from a member this morning he actually is a well informed young man who knows a lot when it comes to model analysis. Me an older foggie is constantly amazed at the knee jerk reaction to day to day model changes , my time analysing both professional and other wise teaches me to look learn and listen ..... sorry just needed to get that off my chest ?

[Chris101]

Hey guys, i don't profess to being anywhere near as knowledgeable as many on here but i have twenty years behind me and always happy to learn more. I might add that i have probably learnt more from the many names on here from cold spells that haven't happened than the ones that have, so although i love a good snowfall i'm always just fine if it doesn't.

Ok enough of that, i'm at a point now where i'm confident of a scandi high, i also know that scandi highs are beasts if they can get themselves together and until that high builds and the models start getting good data on it i'll stay of the firm belief that no model can tell us how big and what she will do.

If as tonights GFS seems to think we can get the heights to stay there like a rock for a good lengthy timeframe, and thats a strong possibility, then i know it will be very hard for some of you but i'm more than happy to watch it for a week or more because i do know the longer it stays there it can move anywhere with 24 hours notice, and if by 192 it is still there it wont be exactly where the 18z says.

We watch and we wait. 

[northwestsnow]

Where do you start???

GFS said no,no and no again.

EC said yes , yes and yes again, and now says, well, no.

UKMO said yes, then no.

And now GFS says yes.

There has been some fabulous posts over the last few days, really enjoyable reading.Im sorry if i upset anyone with my dry humour, it was not intended.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring but i am ABSOLUTELY not going to comment on any output as to be frank, i have no idea which model has the best handle on this now.

It would be amazing if we saw big upgrades tomorrow - but i think im that exhausted with it all i don't think i would have either the enthusiasm or belief to ramp, possibly ever again in my whole life.

So, with that in mind i think i will silently cheer on from the sidelines any model promoting cold outcomes.

Fingers crossed guys.

 

[bobbydog]

i always use the Velux model. it has 100% verification stats. 

[Chris101]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Where do you start???

GFS said no,no and no again.

EC said yes , yes and yes again, and now says, well, no.

UKMO said yes, then no.

And now GFS says yes.

There has been some fabulous posts over the last few days, really enjoyable reading.Im sorry if i upset anyone with my dry humour, it was not intended.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring but i am ABSOLUTELY not going to comment on any output as to be frank, i have no idea which model has the best handle on this now.

It would be amazing if we saw big upgrades tomorrow - but i think im that exhausted with it all i don't think i would have either the enthusiasm or belief to ramp, possibly ever again in my whole life.

So, with that in mind i think i will silently cheer on from the sidelines any model promoting cold outcomes.

Fingers crossed guys.

 

Haha like i say you might have to watch this move and tilt for a week or so, if it can get cut off at any point even better.

Stay strong and stock up on coffee

[tight isobar]

56 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anyone ready to post the ensembles yet!!850temps!!

 

56 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anyone ready to post the ensembles yet!!850temps!!

 

[tight isobar]

A few tweaks-noted..via evenings formats...

So the 00z need to be checked over.

Lets see where we are, while having our weetabix?!

[A Frayed Knot]

So where do we go from here ?

Um ?

The USA (North East) are well down on temps ' even Florida has Snow (lol) and that is a very warm and even hot place all year round .

Africa is colder than us here in the UK .

Russia is warm at the moment but will be going into the Freezer very soon .

USA then go's from cold to warm effect within a few days .

Then do the cold air arrive here .. it could do? also i say  ' Never stick to computer models ' stick to Human Output .

The very best ' Fax charts are accurate .

Enjoy the cold snap that is watered down ' what a laugh , its a coming and its going to be BRUTAL .

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 

 

 

[snowfish1]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Where do you start???

GFS said no,no and no again.

EC said yes , yes and yes again, and now says, well, no.

UKMO said yes, then no.

And now GFS says yes.

There has been some fabulous posts over the last few days, really enjoyable reading.Im sorry if i upset anyone with my dry humour, it was not intended.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring but i am ABSOLUTELY not going to comment on any output as to be frank, i have no idea which model has the best handle on this now.

It would be amazing if we saw big upgrades tomorrow - but i think im that exhausted with it all i don't think i would have either the enthusiasm or belief to ramp, possibly ever again in my whole life.

So, with that in mind i think i will silently cheer on from the sidelines any model promoting cold outcomes.

Fingers crossed guys.

 

I'd say you are one of the more "balanced posters" the bickering and point scoring sadly does nothing for this (otherwise) brilliant forum. Each has something to bring to the table. Old, young, novice, learned. Keep posting! 

[Daniel*]

Good morning fellow nutters,

UKMO T+144 a bit of a new development a good one, low heights slipping under the block cushioning the ridge from slipping away in Central Europe mly be crucial.  

[Daniel*]

If you compare UKMO with GFS at D6 you can see the stark difference. See the pressure difference across Central / Eastern Europe I’m quite sure I read up to day 8 is agreed upon poppycock! Absolutely not.

Funny how +ve heights aren’t as strong to NE but should be OK. I would expect cold to funnel its way looking at UKMO by no means a beast, but colder air I suspect it will be v cold on surface by how slack it is.

[jvenge]

GEM toys with heights, but doesn't really get there and the position isn't the best if it did. What's the saying, hero to zero?

GFS does get there, but its positioning just isn't useful and it quickly fades.

 

Edited January 5, 2018 by jvenge

[jvenge]

Out into the unreliable the GFS returns to zonal, all be it the colder variety. If the GFS is to believed, the UK's best chance of something wintry is to look west, not east.

Edited January 5, 2018 by jvenge

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, jvenge said:

Out into the unreliable the GFS returns to zonal, all be it the colder variety. If the GFS is to believed, the UK's best chance of something wintry is to look west, not east.

Agreed, was going to risk being ridiculed by saying the last two gfs runs have shown the vortex finally moving east into Scandinavia from Greenland allowing something more interesting to develop. We seem to be constantly craving height rises to the north east which when it does happen leaves the uk in no mans land for weeks on end,  where from personal experience were better off with the opposite. Hopefully gfs has this aspect correct.

Edited January 5, 2018 by KTtom

[West is Best]

Good points above Jvenge and KTtom. A few years back we were stuck with a high that had slid from Scandinavia into north Germany / Baltic regions. It took an age to shift and was almost as bad as a Bartlett High for preventing any real cold to develop. That's probably why some of us had our hearts in our mouths when GEM and ECM suggested this one was going to retrograde to Shetland, thus unlocking a true easterly. Given that now seems unlikely we're probably better off with a reload. GFS seems to hint at something of that ilk.

As an aside, it could be argued that the heaviest UK snowfall comes from the west anyway. Boundary snow events from warm and occluded westerlies abutting into a cold block have historically produced big snowfalls in Britain.

[warrenb]

You don't want to look at where the ECM is going

[snowice]

In the bin

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, warrenb said:

You don't want to look at where the ECM is going

Why wheres it going??.looks about the same as yesterday so far

Edited January 5, 2018 by swfc

[Johnp]

14 minutes ago, warrenb said:

You don't want to look at where the ECM is going

Yes, completely imploded by the look of things!

[shaky]

Apart from the rubbish ecm gfs lookks really good this morning and ukmo continues from its 12z run!!not a bad start!!arpege looks fantastic out to 102 hours!!even better than the ukmo and gfs i think for the same timeframe!!stronger scandi high and further west and also dew points still widely around -2!!

[warrenb]

Yes the ECM is dreadful with a blink and miss it high then flattening out to zonal