Model output discussion - into 2018

[shaky]

Control follows the op!!beautiful!!

[blizzard81]

Oh cmon! It's the pub run for pity's sake. 

[Jason M]

The GEFS at days 5 and 6 are actually pretty good. Control is one of the poorer runs though and that range I think much more weight should be given to the opp and control. Anyway, onwards to tomorrow.

[Matthew Gill]

11 minutes ago, booferking said:

Cold zonal from 240hr for 6 days dumpings of snow and 850s that won't make it marginal yes please.

Yes please. Never mind cold from the east I'll take this. Also I posted this model and got it blocked by robomod for some reason.

[Daniel*]

This has been signposted a lot elsewhere but a big warming possible in fact quite likely commencing towards late January has a fair bit of backing, filtering down. Some have been interested in a front loaded winter would be ironic if coldest spell came in February, suppose it’s possible despite La Niña albeit it’s exlected to be pretty weak La Niña phase which is good. This winter is a bit wacky it may be early January but it’s already felt long I do not much in this area so some insight would be nice. As to what these developments could result in, or is it too early?

Edited January 4, 2018 by Daniel*

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

To be fair 

isn’t this exactly what Steve m said would happen two days ago

 could be a great call IMO 

lets hope the pendulum will swing more and build for the collies come the 0z

And the Alsatians and Rotweillers and Pit Bull's as well.

[frosty ground]

10 minutes ago, Danny* said:

So after days of trashing the GFS for not showing good charts, it's suddenly the best model out there because it's showing an improvement? Interesting.

18z is a step back in the right direction but it's still not brilliant, a lot of energy still going into the Northern arm.

I must of missed the post declaribg the GFS the best model.....

[Man With Beard]

Evening all, 12Zs tomorrow is crunch time for me. Can't believe there's no chance the Atlantic low won't disrupt more and go under:

[Weathizard]

Scandi high much stronger on the mean... let's hope the GFS is on to something.

After the ECM being the hero how did I know we'd be saying that now 

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

The GEFS at days 5 and 6 are actually pretty good. Control is one of the poorer runs though and that range I think much more weight should be given to the opp and control. Anyway, onwards to tomorrow.

Wow if the control is the worse one then the other ensembles must look delicious!!!

[Mucka]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

It’s back to chasing slush with a BBC reporter stuck on a hill espousing the next ice age as driving sleet bears down on the poor soul! 

I’ve looked at all 50 eps and needed to raid the drinks cabinet after !

 

I'm surprised just how bad ECM ensembles are, no cold there except for a weakish signal for it to turn colder toward mid month

But on the up side things are more finely balanced than that chart shows.

I doubt we will see a quick reversal that brings anything like P20 (Door still just ajar)

But I actually feel more confident about the chances of cold in the run up to mid month than the Easterly we are now seemingly missing out upon as upstream signals seem more favourable for any blocking to get further North and West.

[stewfox]

46 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Why do we all get so hung up over each and every run? There’s loads of time and runs for things to change for the better or worse! It’s all about getting the theme/trend whatever you want to call it, bigger picture not every run etc. There will be so many more changes let’s just enjoy the ride

But if you get a better run nearer a reliable time frame it can cause excitement

Free tea and coffee for the GFS 0Z crowd who see it come up next morning 

 

[snowbob]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And the Alsatians and Rotweillers and Pit Bull's as well.

Ha ha qaulity

Yep did notice Corrected accordingly 

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Oh cmon! It's the pub run for pity's sake. 

I'm sure I've heard it's got the best verification stats of all the models.......

Anywhoo, the Control is absolutely on the same page as the Op. 

Op at 144        Control at 144 

'IF' we get a day of upgrades tomorrow, this site will be buzzing again.  If not, at least it's Friday!

 

[Snowmadsam]

Ok ok it's the pub run, but again the question is...WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?!

Tune into ECMenders tomorrow at 3:30-4:30, 5:00-6:00, 6:00-7:00, 9:30-10:30, 15:30-16:30, 17:00 -18:00, 18:00-19:00, 21:30-22:30 

Now if that isn't a duff duff I don't know what is....

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

But on the up side things are more finely balanced than that chart shows.

I

They are still an upgrade on the 0z

 

Edited January 4, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[shaky]

Someone take a look at the navgem aswell please!!scandianavian high in all its glory??!!what a treat tonight!!by the morning runs we should have a beasterly!!!

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Ok ok it's the pub run, but again the question is...WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?!

Tune into ECMenders tomorrow at 3:30-4:30, 5:00-6:00, 6:00-7:00, 9:30-10:30, 15:30-16:30, 17:00 -18:00, 18:00-19:00, 21:30-22:30 

Now if that isn't a duff duff I don't know what is....

Duff duff . . .

The only duff thing here is these bloody models!

[Scandinavian High.]

Steve murr said there would be upgrades .

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Oh cmon! It's the pub run for pity's sake. 

Does it matter? The extra 6 hours makes all the difference. 

Quite seriously GFS 18z has never seemed to be that keen so at least finally something to rouse the coldies. We need more improvements but after a dismal start to the day I’m feeling slightly more cheery. 

[Longtimelurker]

4 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Kudos to the teleconnect gurus, they trumped the models.

Here's hoping they're right for later in the month. 

Remember what they were saying in early December and remember last winter early doors, you yourself were predicting copious snow with the Teleconnections then that never materialised and once this started showing in the models alot of the Teleconnections crew started altering their predictions. So many blinkers

[BlazeStorm]

GFS showing the storm that's currently hammering the East coast of the US getting blocked and shunted north. Would expect a storm of this magnitude to have some huge influence on our side of the pond. If this is blocked any further (which is plausible) then it will allow heights to build north and north east of the UK. The 'Beasterly' is still on guys.

EDIT: All up in the air beyond this point.

Edited January 4, 2018 by BlazeStorm
Chart

[Brucie]

One of the recurring themes so far this winter has been for the Azores high to be displaced further in the Atlantic and to ridge up towards Greenland when opportunity arises.  This is undoubtedly because of a weather pattern much more susceptible to amplification than recent winters (could low solar activity be partly to do with this??).  Because of this, I cannot see a flat W-E jetstream take hold across the Atlantic any time soon.  Now with the Siberian/Russian/Scandi high in play, this will add extra notion to my (hopeful) idea that the Azores high can ridge up to Greenland and eventually (within the next 10 days?) assist in backing the anticyclone Westwards.  I expect we would have colder air to tap into by then.  Remember, it more often than not takes more than one attempt to bring in a cold E'ly.

This has been a very different winter so far for several years.  It's almost unheard of in recent years to have had multiple snow events in England and Wales before the start of January.

David, Northallerton

[joggs]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Does it matter? The extra 6 hours makes all the difference. 

Quite seriously GFS 18z has never seemed to be that keen so at least finally something to rouse the coldies. We need more improvements but after a dismal start to the day I’m feeling slightly more cheery. 

But less input into it's starting point.

[The Enforcer]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Dumping coming up here.

Uppers easily cold enough for a slider.

Hmmm, conditions suitable for significant snow under the current best case scenario (GFS) still seem to be just over a week away. If my memory serves me well, this time last week, they were just over a week away under the then best case scenario (GEM). I suppose it's better than being two weeks away.

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Better aligned more of a southwesterly push to of the very cold air into Eastern Europe.

This is the key timeframe to watch as each run comes out. In order to break the aforementioned 7 day hoodoo, we really need to see incremental changes in the form of the green over the UK getting replaced by blues and the darker blues continuing to edge further from Eastern into Central Europe. All of which is realistically possible.

Edited January 4, 2018 by The Enforcer