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Model output discussion - into 2018

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ens trend on uppers is down on the back of pm incursions - it's not blocked! 

The pig is covered in lipstick at the moment ...............

It’s back to chasing slush with a BBC reporter stuck on a hill espousing the next ice age as driving sleet bears down on the poor soul! :D

I’ve looked at all 50 eps and needed to raid the drinks cabinet after !

 

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Who is ready for a crucial set of 18z GFS runs?!

It would be ironic if it turned it around

Oh I am it can’t get anymore crucial it’s so crucial tonight it is make or break :p the almighty godlike GFS will know the answer our oracle and saviour! Praise be...

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It’s back to chasing slush with a BBC reporter stuck on a hill espousing the next ice age as driving sleet bears down on the poor soul! :D

I’ve looked at all 50 eps and needed to raid the drinks cabinet after !

 

That dyer?

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

its a bit like watching the Football tonight is this... Spurs (ECM) the glory model all singing all dancing V West Ham (GFS) just saying I don't think so pal... COYI

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, knocker said:

The modicum of change is sufficient to change the airmass characteristics and see the rise in temp IMHO

gfs_t850a_eur_11.thumb.png.dbe293df61fdbc14f6c6dd4932952753.pnggfs_t850a_eur_15.thumb.png.a050e2a95309ca084f36f4e2a8fc7449.png

Jeez knocker back posting in this thread, the cold is done for:D only joking knocker, enjoy your posts.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Jeez knocker back posting in this thread, the cold is done for:D only joking knocker, enjoy your posts.

No no it is very much a one off guest appearance. :)

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Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted

BBC long range high pressure to north mid week cold coming in from scandi with some snow but also say milder weather trying push right a cross uk at end of week 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That dyer?

Excuse me whilst I pour another whisky ! They’re not all bad but for lovers of crunchy snow only a few survive the mediocrity!

They’re not like blowtorch sw erlies but generally a bit underwhelming.

I’ve seen worse and sometimes the eps can flip as quickly as the op runs. I think we need to give it a few days, enough time to get more drink supplies in!

Edited by nick sussex
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Dennis Accomplished

Dennis

Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Posted (edited)

i say bring back atlantic first next week for new fresh setup - this Scandi High for now isnt working (real coldair in the east is not there) 

Edited by Dennis
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted
10 minutes ago, knocker said:

The modicum of change is sufficient to change the airmass characteristics and see the rise in temp IMHO

gfs_t850a_eur_11.thumb.png.dbe293df61fdbc14f6c6dd4932952753.pnggfs_t850a_eur_15.thumb.png.a050e2a95309ca084f36f4e2a8fc7449.png

much obliged :hi:

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It was obvious what was going to happen on the 144 chart.... 

However the interest for any subsequent development is to the north east (which we can't see) and if the Azores high can link up to the Scandi high.

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dennis said:

i say bring back atlantic first next week for new fresh setup - this Scandi High for now isnt working 

Ah the classic wish for a zonal 'reset' - which in reality ends up with 6 weeks of Atlantic dross.?️

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Excuse me whilst I pour another whisky ! They’re not all bad but for lovers of crunchy snow only a few survive the mediocrity!

They’re not like blowtorch sw erlies but generally a bit underwhelming.

I’ve seen worse and sometimes the eps can flip as quickly as the op runs. I think we need to give it a few days, enough time to get more drink supplies in!

So there must be some with the slushy wet snow then?

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Jason T Seasoned

Jason T

Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
Posted

The 18z gonna turn out a blinder "NOW" for sure...We will be able envisage polar bears walking past our lounge window. It is never easy getting the Cold in, I am sure all will become clearer from more runs over the next few days...

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Dennis Accomplished

Dennis

Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Ah the classic wish for a zonal 'reset' - which in reality ends up with 6 weeks of Atlantic dross.?️

i meant for this - it shows a new and better possibility for cold

76.png

75.png

Edited by Dennis
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comet Enthusiast

comet

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

120 The key is that vertical WAA up towards the pole...

NB : no ones mentioned the Pacific high creeping over the pole in the last few runs...

12B83934-BC9D-40EC-B20B-85796E7EE272.thumb.png.a13cf3104bfd2b0ec6378c05f15597fa.png

All part of the amplification post t144 that I spoke of in a post earlier today. Strat charts show a split vortex developing right up to the 30mb level out to t 300 ish . I do not think that this is being reflected accurately in the h500 charts and we will see a trend for more amplified runs and a much greater chance of sustaining a potent cold spell for several days.

   227

 

 
 
 
 
 

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Dennis said:

i meant for this - it shows a new and better possibility for cold

76.png

A long way to go after  that chart before it would deliver although apparently they (SSW's) do deliver more when the PV is strong rather than when we are already blocked.

 

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Dennis Accomplished

Dennis

Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A long way to go after  that chart would deliver although apparently they (SSW's) do deliver more when the PV is strong rather than when we are already blocked.

we see a high wave2 atm 

756.JPG

Edited by Dennis
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A long way to go after  that chart before it would deliver although apparently they (SSW's) do deliver more when the PV is strong rather than when we are already blocked.

 

 

Yes the trop response is greater when you have  a positive AO.

They did some research on that and I suppose its quite logical. Whether we actually see a major  SSW though is another matter. We live in hope.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Dennis said:

we see a high wave2

Was going to post the wave 2 berlin chart up but it wont let you do it now, yes they aren't bad, it would be feb though now before any SSW would be felt at surface, and that's assuming the SSW models all the way in from now without any put backs and it propagates quickly.

 

 

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted
28 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There is some interest from the GEFS 12z in terms of stronger blocking and undercutting with increasingly cold and even snowy conditions next week onwards as an Ely / SEly flow becomes firmly established so things could yet upgrade on the operationals.:)   

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Yes yes yes frosty,people need to wait until the Easterly is in the reliable time frame before writing it off.Which is about 5 days or less when we are talking about an Easterly .The models always struggle in these set ups,because it’s different to the norm.Maybe by this time tomorrow we will know how potent this Easterly is 

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