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Model output discussion - into 2018

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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West is Best Seasoned

West is Best

Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Dean E said:

This forum has always been a great place to be, but once a model changes its output, some members go into complete meltdown.

Wise words throughout your post. I guess the problem also revolves around expectations. When we see rubbish model outputs then we get justifiably excited about changes ahead. When, on the other hand, we are offered the prospects of a mouth-watering deep freeze, only to have that cruelly dashed, we get a tad fed up.

This is an exchange I had just yesterday morning, which feels like a lifetime in model watching ;) 

5a4e827ea3326_ScreenShot2018-01-04at19_36_53.thumb.png.aa8639c1a3ca350de5d242cace84cd20.png

We are going to have a bracing weekend and things may yet turn colder afterwards. I'm still encouraged, especially by the return of ensemble scatter in the GFS.

Edited by West is Best
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has high pressure over the UK and dry for most

ukm2.2018011112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4bfd8a6d5b8a5c5049bcc74d8b202cbf.png

Azores nosing in. Similar to ecm - unfortunately. 

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
24 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I was getting a little twinge of positivity there and then you mentioned NAVGEM lol

 

Mighty NAVGEM it’s my new favourite model. :crazy:

;)

Some quite good news 180 mean from GFS ensembles shows OP as too progressive.

37CDDF58-C446-4FB8-B9AA-21366E33F651.thumb.png.a46504519d9983aaf2d2e565cfe61bab.png V 6A2C4C78-C92C-448E-854E-07C7833F091B.thumb.png.894e8b5770346e5bc7b63c1952dd714c.png

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

Sadly,  the EPS following the Det run with a much more progressive outlook - as ever the clusters will reveal all but this is trending the wrong way now...

Edited by mulzy
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, mulzy said:

Sadly,  The EPS following the Det run with a much more progressive outlook - as ever the clusters will reveal all but this is trending the wrong way now...

What ensemble mean temperature anomaly is it in the extended range please?

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Sadly,  the EPS following the Det run with a much more progressive outlook - as ever the clusters will reveal all but this is trending the wrong way now...

That's weird as I was about to post a much more upbeat assessment of the ecm mean. The alignment of the block to the east is much better in the 8 to 10 day range compared to this morning's mean and yesterday's 12z mean. These previous means saw the block sinking south east. 

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snowstorm27x Enthusiast

snowstorm27x

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice, thunderstorms
  • Location: Oldbury
Posted

Not to disappointed in what looks likely another Easterly fail there was never true cold to tap into. Still looks like a battleground scenario could bring some snowfall with a few minor tweaks. We need to get the cold uppers into Europe then hope we can get a true easterly later on. Still see plenty of PM incursions and cold Zonality can still deliver for most. Still 7 weeks of Drama to come hope you all get some snow.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's weird as I was about to post a much more upbeat assessment of the ecm mean. The alignment of the block to the east is much better in the 8 to 10 day range compared to this morning's mean and yesterday's 12z mean. These previous means saw the block sinking south east. 

I’m hoping you’re correct on this one, however I think it’s dead and buried before day 8..

Edited by Ali1977
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's weird as I was about to post a much more upbeat assessment of the ecm mean. The alignment of the block to the east is much better in the 8 to 10 day range compared to this morning's mean and yesterday's 12z mean. These previous means saw the block sinking south east. 

Agreed with a mean like this it’s hard to tell the direction of travel. I bet there is a good cluster, however certaintly not to be the biggest but there is certaintly hope to see better things. 

24F29AC6-801F-4A4C-8519-93AD60D30AE0.thumb.png.f5e3230e8e8a67665094f2fb892f9f5c.png9B255C5C-19F7-4736-810B-058FA5E5D4AE.thumb.png.35411826364f9bf5f6e1e08bb8339a39.png

Edited by Daniel*
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Looking at the latest models I can't see anything particularly wintry on the way, yes a colder weekend coming up but still reaching 7c 45f in the S / SE and then next week it becomes a bit milder at times, especially in the South but still with some rather cold weather at times as we sit between atlantic lows trying to push in but making only erratic progress due to the cold block further east. The GEFS 12z mean indicates a more zonal westerly pattern becoming established beyond next week with spells of wet and windy weather but also cold enough at times for hill snow in the north and overnight frosts / ice during any short-lived quieter interludes.:)

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What ensemble mean temperature anomaly is it in the extended range please?

Average I would say - strong westerly flow in extended range - sure some PM influence at times. 

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.d80e91a359efd978239f9005eb3733bb.png

Edited by winterof79
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted (edited)

Quick question, so hopefully a simple answer....re. 12z GFS, it looks odd T60 - T84 with the mixing out of T850's..... A 10 degree plus rise in the T850's within the Scandi HP  despite only a modicum of change both in positioning and orientation, what's the simple reason for this....inversion?...cheers

Edited by ajpoolshark
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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

image.thumb.png.d80e91a359efd978239f9005eb3733bb.png

old 0z run

KNMI_expertpluim_De_Bilt_Temperatuur_201801041200.png

Edited by ArHu3
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's the 00z ensembles 

whoops:drunk-emoji:

 

Edited by winterof79
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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted
1 hour ago, mulzy said:

"That ECM" was in a different league - that was painful!!!

This was the sequel that flopped at the box office!

 

The Phantom Menace of an Easterly this one ?

However what doesn't get mentioned a lot is after THAT ECM came Jan and March 2013, this seems to be forgotten and delivered for many.

 

I tell you what though,  there's a few posters found Crewe's nipple jar tonight ???

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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted

Who is ready for a crucial set of 18z GFS runs?!

It would be ironic if it turned it around

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

There is some interest from the GEFS 12z in terms of stronger blocking and undercutting with increasingly cold and even snowy conditions next week onwards as an Ely / SEly flow becomes firmly established so things could yet upgrade on the operationals.:)   

8_168_850tmp.png

8_168_2mtmpmax.png

8_192_850tmp.png

8_192_2mtmpmax.png

8_264_2mtmpmax.png

8_264_850tmp.png

8_288_850tmp.png

8_336_850tmp.png

8_336_2mtmpmax.png

8_384_850tmp.png

8_384_2mtmpmax.png

9_216_2mtmpmax.png

9_216_850tmp.png

20_264_2mtmpmax.png

20_264_850tmp.png

20_336_2mtmpmax.png

Edited by Frosty.
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
37 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Quick question, so hopefully a simple answer....re. 12z GFS, it looks odd T60 - T84 with the mixing out of T850's..... A 10 degree plus rise in the T850's within the Scandi HP  despite only a modicum of change both in positioning and orientation, what's the simple reason for this....inversion?...cheers

The modicum of change is sufficient to change the airmass characteristics and see the rise in temp IMHO

gfs_t850a_eur_11.thumb.png.dbe293df61fdbc14f6c6dd4932952753.pnggfs_t850a_eur_15.thumb.png.a050e2a95309ca084f36f4e2a8fc7449.png

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