Model output discussion - into 2018

[Scandinavian High.]

Now watch the 18z go for a colder out come later 

[blizzard81]

And to rub salt into the wounds, the US starts to go into the freezer again at day 10. Bet the ecm gets that correct. 

[Jason M]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM just killed Bambi.

From hero to public enemy number one!

You can trace the descent of recent runs to the insurance policy that it originally had upstream with the amplifying shortwave which latched onto the PV and helped pull some of the energy away from the north and west. With that gone and the flatter pattern upstream the insurance policy just got ripped to shreds .

Now it’s sinking without trace and the new Bambi hero is the UKMO which is the best of an underwhelming bunch!

Bambi got resuscitated at 192, but ECM then killed Bambi again using a cruise missile just to make sure!!! 

[Ali1977]

Think that’s me giving up on this one - I’ll enjoy a few frosts and some dry days and maybe in a few days something better might crop up. 

[nick sussex]

You can always rely on the ECM to not let you down gently but slap you in the face and then steal your Lapland tickets at the same time. 

Some ugly looking output towards day ten. Notice now that there are some colder uppers to the east the pattern is too far east.

Todays trend has been flatter since this morning , whether this stops tomorrow we’ll have to see.

There’s still a chance we might see some better trough disruption , still just about enough time to salvage something but today’s trends haven’t been good.

[Bristawl Si]

20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM just killed Bambi.

From hero to public enemy number one!

You can trace the descent of recent runs to the insurance policy that it originally had upstream with the amplifying shortwave which latched onto the PV and helped pull some of the energy away from the north and west. With that gone and the flatter pattern upstream the insurance policy just got ripped to shreds .

Now it’s sinking without trace and the new Bambi hero is the UKMO which is the best of an underwhelming bunch!

So is this sequel starring the ECM called "Return of That Ecm"? Or "That ECM 2"?

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Wish an Easterly.. -

Im gonna come back at 7pm tomorrow.

all have a good 24 hours.

Thought he was looking at undercuts to be honest

[mother nature rocks]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Wish an Easterly.. -

Im gonna come back at 7pm tomorrow.

all have a good 24 hours.

Come on Steve... please don’t leave me and other part time posters in here in this mad house ?

The input you provide is very much appreciated!!!

[mulzy]

9 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

So is this sequel starring the ECM called "Return of That Ecm"? Or "That ECM 2"?

"That ECM" was in a different league - that was painful!!!

This was the sequel that flopped at the box office!

Edited January 4, 2018 by mulzy

[blizzard81]

The worrying thing about the ecm is that the op consistently went for a scandi block retrogressing west towards northern Scotland over several consecutive runs. Some respond by saying look at the ens means. However, the ops are run at higher resolution so you would expect them to have the edge by quite some distance. This just hasn't been the case with the ecm this week. It reminds me of what the gfs used to do in the bad old days. 

[Chesil View]

Sadly in reality almost as soon as the ECM op showed what looked like great synoptics a day or so back We were able to start picking holes in it. Barring one day the uppers were never really cold.

All the real action seemed to be in the 7-10 day period etc etc.

As others have said so much needs to go right to to get these scandi high beasterlies to come off.  Thats why they are so rare.

Personally I never like it when it starts off aligned west/east. Much better a sw /ne orientation over Scandi for two reasons firstly you are more likely to pull in colder uppers more quickly and secondly if the high sags a bit you still get an easterly. More wriggle room if you like.

The main saving grace from all this is that it is only the first week of Jan and I personally think this is only the first skirmish between coldeast and the Atlantic in a battle that may well have different outcomes down the line.

 

[swfc]

So here we are!!!.gfs is rubbish,euros are spot on? Background signals dont work!!.guess what the weather trumped you all!!

[Penrith Snow]

US in the freezer, ghost easterlies from ECM, mid latitude highs alternating with raging zonality, its the same every winter, our winters are stuck in a never ending groundhog day!

Absolutely appalling and if someone mentions the word Slider once more I swear I will...............

Andy

[MattStoke]

Well that's the evolution of this pattern completely nailed. Until it changes on the next run, of course.

[Sweatyman]

15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

And to rub salt into the wounds, the US starts to go into the freezer again at day 10. Bet the ecm gets that correct. 

When yesterday it was showing +10 850s for then. What a bloody joke

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Well that's the evolution of this pattern completely nailed. Until it changes on the next run, of course.

There is a VERY small chance of this happening. However most know that once the majority of models revert from blocked to mobile, they hardly ever revert back again. 

[Daniel*]

26 minutes ago, Mucka said:

This forum is a like a Shakespearean tragedy.

Just recently there have been calls to end GFS, to euthenize the ECM and now Bambi has been slaughtered!

This made me seriously laugh to extent my cuppa had a spillage. Humour is a fantastic coping mechanism.  

This is so out of kilter to all what I have seen, the very good and the very bad on ECM day 7 seriously cannot see a southwesterly flow anytime soon, a matter of being too progressive methinks. We’re none the wiser this evening with UKMO & NAVGEM, holding the coldie torch it burns bright amongst the endless darkness..

[Paul]

Way too much moaning and bantering going on in here tonight, this thread should be for discussion of the output only, not emotional reactions to it. 

Please head to the banter thread to moan, ramp, react emotionally, or just have a laugh or joke about the output:

 

[mother nature rocks]

1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

When yesterday it was showing +10 850s for then. What a bloody joke

It is looking like a big warm up(thaw) will occur in US after another 10 days or so. Less cold, less Jet coming off esb so you never know what is around the corner for us. 

If ECM was warm(yesterday) now showing cold(today) then surely this must be an eye opener to models struggling.  IMO of course.

MNR

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

This made me seriously laugh to extent my cuppa had a spillage. Humour is a fantastic coping mechanism.  

This is so out of kilter to all what I have seen, the very good and the very bad on ECM day 7 seriously cannot see a southwesterly flow anytime soon, a matter of being too progressive methinks. We’re none the wiser this evening with UKMO & NAVGEM, holding the coldie torch it burns bright amongst the endless darkness..

I was getting a little twinge of positivity there and then you mentioned NAVGEM lol

 

[Dean E]

This forum has always been a great place to be, but once a model changes its output, some members go into complete meltdown.

As @CreweCold mentioned, the EC is top of the shop in the 7-10 day range IMO. Just take a look a verification charts from winters past. EC has changed its output in the last 24 hours, which is was to be expected moving out of that 7-10 day window.

GFS has never been on the same page as the EC during this upcoming period, but that's what the beauty of the GFS! It's another model to add to the pack. The UKMO, GEM ect. are all great performing models also, but again add to the great mass of information we have avaliable.

The problem in here (same most winters, but appears the be a lot worse this winter) is that some posters jump on every model run, believing its the 'end of the world' when the desired pattern dissapears. That's what models do, they basically attempt to predict the future. While studying my degree, one of my lecturers said 'Models are never right' and it was probably the best piece of advice he gave me during that time.

As many have said this evening, trends are the single most important factor to use with forecasting. There are background signals, whether you believe in them or not, that have plenty of support that you can use. (Tamara and Glacier Point to name a few use these to aid with their predictions).

As we continue, I think we all need to just take a break and continue to comment on the trends moving forward. This really is one of a kind forum, so please be nice to each other, otherwise there's no point?

Edited January 4, 2018 by Dean E

[A.J]

10 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Netweather members 

biggest consumers of razor blades , ropes and railway track invaders 

model fatigued ! 

no, just a few hystericals     ....some of us are actually normal people who don't get tied up Iin every isobar kink at T50000....(I should say 'fairly normal people....lol)

Another fascinating day of model watching with some wonderful analytical posts from several posters, some of which I understood, some of which went "woooosh, right over my head!"....keep up the great work!   ...and here's to the 18z run & the overnight's...Will, it be 'Model Wars - Revenge of the GFS or Model Wars' - 'The Last ECM?'...staay tuned

[Scandinavian High.]

Can't post pictures at the minute but gfs ensembles are a big upgrade with blocking to the north east with lows going under with big snow  events  there could be a surprise 18 z later..

[Sweatyman]

Feeling it's gonna be a lovely cold 18z as it's been a pig of a model day???

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

Can't post pictures at the minute but gfs ensembles are a big upgrade with blocking to the north east with lows going under with big snow  events  there could be a surprise 18 z later..

I feel it Abbie??