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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
16 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Yup and @comet we got even more cold than that forecast just a few hundred km east of your location, I would hardly call it a failed easterly, even if the cold did not get imby (but it did ?) 

I did not realise you were Dutch. It was a failed easterly as far as the UK was concerned I remember met forecasts calling for deep cold and significant snowfall in the east of the country at first then becoming more widespread and affecting western regions as well. Unfortunately for the UK in general it did not materialise.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Been looking at the ECM ensemble members and we're seeing the typical divergence with this kind of set up.

Either energy over the top or underneath. The mean value isn't really telling the true picture because of the vastly different outcomes depending on where that energy goes.

The members vary from excellent to good to downright ugly in terms of outcomes.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
12 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

ICOOPEU00_180_1.png

 

By 10 am this morning I predict ICON to be the world's premier model (replacing GEM from yesterday).

 

What the icon does is bring a shortwave north across into the low countries but then sort of joins up with one near russia and then helps funnel that cold even further west!!i think thats what we might need to keep the interest going!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Worth noting the GFS operational is very much at the milder end and this is both for the UK and much further east into Europe. Even an outlier in terms of 2m temps later in the run.

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

Just to get away from the 'will it, won't it' easterly discussion for a second, the main models all suggest that the PV will remain split apart for the next week at least with little sign of getting particularly organised.   This bodes well for continuing chances for variable conditions to happen in our part of the hemisphere some of which are likely to include cold incursions.  This is far from the last chance saloon as far as winter weather is concerned for the UK this winter.....

UKMO   image.thumb.gif.808d237d3ce356dd14f3780d43d239a7.gif

ECM      image.thumb.png.561468868155161f6d4cad7842b8f5cc.png

GFS       image.thumb.png.5774769aba27f0192868744973b1cdf5.png

GEM      image.thumb.png.cfbb3f72be30f4b0009d316b384cb836.png

Compare the above with 19 January 2017 and it's easy to see how much more interesting the current conditions are than last year (and previous years come to that). 

image.thumb.png.b9a99803240178bac97437c89147d43e.png

We are unlikely to get a 1962/63 type winter, that's clear, but it's so much better than the last three or four years so keep watching this space for exciting conditions yet to come!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Ec mean isn't pretty from day 9 onwards- 

I'd be lying if i didn't say i was disappointed by the 00z runs- i'm sure most would agree.

Still time for upgrades- although thats mainly in hope rather than expectation..

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Want to know if things have taken a step backwards? LOMP tells you it has:D:D Lack Of Murr Posts:D

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

I've never really bought into this, albeit I did get briefly tempted yesterday morning when the models seemed to want to converge around something colder. That said, its probably worth just waiting for the 12Z runs this afternoon before calling it. 

I tend to want to see more than one set of runs with agreement from the big three before I get too excited as otherwise we get a blended solution which is rarely good enough. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Been looking at the ECM ensemble members and we're seeing the typical divergence with this kind of set up.

Either energy over the top or underneath. The mean value isn't really telling the true picture because of the vastly different outcomes depending on where that energy goes.

The members vary from excellent to good to downright ugly in terms of outcomes.

The output of the ops days 6/7 today look very much like the mean has last few days nick ....  I have said this before but sometimes the solution ends up being a blend of the clusters - the mean !!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Want to know if things have taken a step backwards? LOMP tells you it has:D:D Lack Of Murr Posts:D

Probably charging his phone battery, he'll be back:D

Anyway, there is still plenty of cold interest, cold weekend coming up with frosts and some wintry showers in the east with a high windchill factor and then next week looks rather cold complicated with scope for some wintry ppn, frosts and ice.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Just now, tvh3382 said:

 

Come on. The GFS is not king, neither are any of the models.   GFS has moved towards ECM, ECM has moved towards the GFS with GFS moving more towards ECM than the other way round.

Cant post charts as zi am on phone but if you look at GFS  for next Tuesday from two days ago and today for the same time you will see that the GFS will be.the bigger difference.

The METO has been middle ground and this is looking more likely.  Come back in 7 days and see if you can say GFS is king. I don’t think so.

i am surprised at sime of the more experienced members who are claiming GFS has been right all along.

 

SIMPLY NOT TRUE AND MISLEADING TO SLL THE NEW MEMBERS,

Remember the cold spell has not arrived yet so who knows how long it will last.

Probably the most accurate description of the current model 'dispute' which hasn't yet been resolved btw

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
34 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'll deny it.

The GFS didn't even want to give us a block in the first place because it always overestimates the Northern arm of the jet, always, always, always.

And of course the Atlantic will always win at some point and the GFS will be correct by default.

Good morning. Debate is always good imo. I will have a look back but I'm pretty sure the gfs has been showing a block but one that really doesn't affect the UK for long due to the forcing from the Atlantic. A little like what the ecm op shows this morning ☺️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast

After Monday high resolution oper and low resolution control start diverging in wind direction in the de Bilt plume, so still a lot of uncertainty in what happens after that

Screenshot_20180104-093832.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

Model carnage (maybe that's too strong) again - but it's not exactly unexpected.  Over the last few days as things have evolved, we've been seeing the GFS sending a bit more energy south relative to what it had, and the ECM sending more energy north relative to what it had - basically the bias of both models is exposed for all to see. 

However, let me throw out a darts analogy (not often you get that in the model thread!), if you throw at triple 20 and hit just slightly too low, on your next dart you adjust - maybe you get a bit closer. Then you throw again, this time you've adjusted too much and end up above the wire. On your next dart you adjust back the other way, and finally you hit it.  In short the models are still adjusting - especially at the 144+ time range.  What often happens during the downgrades is that the models over adjust one way, and then re-adjust back somewhat a few runs later.

So  for the next 10 days probably no -10 uppers from the East with convective snow, but we only need to adjust very slightly (in terms of more southern jet energy) to create a very snowy battleground.

Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EXT eps are not great either.

Think its reasonable to say we need a shift back on the 12zs,I'm not entirely sure Exeter will change their update today but unless we see a trend to more undercutting very soon i think tomorrows update might remove the word snow from the text.

We'll see...

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
23 minutes ago, tvh3382 said:

 

Come on. The GFS is not king, neither are any of the models.   GFS has moved towards ECM, ECM has moved towards the GFS with GFS moving more towards ECM than the other way round.

Cant post charts as zi am on phone but if you look at GFS  for next Tuesday from two days ago and today for the same time you will see that the GFS will be.the bigger difference.

The METO has been middle ground and this is looking more likely.  Come back in 7 days and see if you can say GFS is king. I don’t think so.

i am surprised at sime of the more experienced members who are claiming GFS has been right all along.

 

SIMPLY NOT TRUE AND MISLEADING TO SLL THE NEW MEMBERS,

Remember the cold spell has not arrived yet so who knows how long it will last.

Mate im only talking about-both 0/196 hrs...and the fact like it or not that others mods ukmo-gem- and certainly ecm have leaned toward gfs

I think some have blinkers on this morning!?

Not to say there arent opportunity for some intresting developments, but between given timeframes 'again' 0/196 hrs..im confident of agree!!! 

Iv'e never flagged up any further out than above suggested!!...

Im leaving this one here now...moving on.

Certainly no missleading of any sorts..just what sits in front of view!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Good morning. Debate is always good imo. I will have a look back but I'm pretty sure the gfs has been showing a block but one that really doesn't affect the UK for long due to the forcing from the Atlantic. A little like what the ecm op shows this morning ☺️ 

It went from a W air flow to SW to S in three days each time the block is stronger and more resilient to the Atlantic till today where it manages to stop it. Still plenty of time for that to push even further west and have us a little surprise or two.

According the NW folk it is impossible for all models to be wrong and there must be one winner.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

And don't forget, after a nailed-on dip in temperatures this weekend there are still a number of members within GFS ensembles (and the other models) offering significant potential for the longer term. Pert 5 would be fun in Skeggy :D

tempresult_zoq9.giftempresult_kjy1.giftempresult_jro7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

To me, next week still looks interesting regarding potential cold if we take all the 00z output and put it in a blender, there is a risk of battleground snow, some wintry showers, frosts and ice..all to play for!:):cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

mind- ..

An' interesting set off ooz london ens!!!!

Screenshot_2018-01-04-09-03-10.pngaberdeen -above also..

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EXT eps are not great either.

Think its reasonable to say we need a shift back on the 12zs,I'm not entirely sure Exeter will change their update today but unless we see a trend to more undercutting very soon i think tomorrows update might remove the word snow from the text.

We'll see...

The met update coming on side is always the kiss of death ?

 

The gfs has moved over more to the ecm than vice Versa however the ecm moving is what affects us more I'm afraid.

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