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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich
3 minutes ago, Aaki Khan said:

To be fair i'll take anything in the 'Shades Of Blue' I Have not forgotten the last few winters! A Decent winter this already and long it may last. ??

Yup must agree with this. Who cares which model is correct/wrong?? What they are showing is miles better than the last few winters with barely a frost to mention. 

Some seem to have forgotten this. 

Its going to get cold but how cold who knows at the end of it all??

MNR

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

It appears the GFS can hold its head a little bit higher this morning. Not surprising as it looks like that very deep cold in the US is driving everything at the moment.  

An easterly at this point would always be a bit of a mumdane affair given the temps in Europe. I would say enjoy the cold crisp weather the next few days and then start praying for some SSW event to displace the cold more towards Europe!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The microscale dynamics0+/196 are for the bin....

As the overall pattern looks solid until the point..

 

There’s absolutely nothing solid in the outlook not with these Scandi highs they’re the most fickle of things the models struggle immensely tiny adjustments huge difference.. very unpredictable.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Must say I am kinda happy with this mornings runs GFS only needs a few tweaks and it's there as well as the ECM. UKMO best of the lot.

Rather nice that we're starting to come together for a block to the NE to last a while. And with it being there so far out it possible to get some upgrades. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk

The lack of cold in Europe is a shame, even if we do pull an easterly component there's nothing to tap into without waiting a week or so.

 

Just to have had half of that cold currently in the NE states of America in Europe would have been lovely!

Edited by Bobby93
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Just now, SN0WM4N said:

Must say I am kinda happy with this mornings runs GFS only needs a few tweaks and it's there as well as the ECM. UKMO best of the lot.

Rather nice that we're starting to come together for a block to the NE to last a while. And with it being there so far out it possible to get some upgrades. 

I agree. On these such setups I have seen many short term changes (In favour). Forums r Buzzing. Something tis a brewing this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Pick of the bunch NAVGEM followed by UKMO both very good IMO altogether now...we love you NAVGEM we do oh NAVGEM we love you! These early mornings drive you to madness. :crazy:

GEM nowhere near as good... hey ho more runs needed as always. 

39533EE2-B0F2-43C3-8CEE-ADB063E62A83.thumb.png.dbf4a04bd7ed6bcd8cc48df474b36fcb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Must say I am kinda happy with this mornings runs GFS only needs a few tweaks and it's there as well as the ECM. UKMO best of the lot.

Rather nice that we're starting to come together for a block to the NE to last a while. And with it being there so far out it possible to get some upgrades. 

Yes, I think good charts for the UK this morning. Still in the model range 120t-240t evolution for some type of cold set up likely. Chart below from ECM at day 10 shown upper air colder enough for snow. Plenty of changes yet in the models for this period. Think there is a hint of some trough distruption towards the British Isles and the Scandinavian pushing back again in the Medium longer term.  Certainly towel not thrown in this morning from what I can see.

 C

ECMOPUK00_240_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Lots of bickering over which one has 'won' but we're 10 days out! Hardly within the reliable time frame. Looks more like each converging towards a solution, rather than any having 'called it right.'

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Never could get over confident on possible upcoming cold/easterly spell when the gfs was so adamantly against it and this morning myself and many other posters doubts  have been realised across the big three models.  A blink and you will miss it cold snap although I suppose there will be some surface cold across the country for a couple of days as we go into next week.

When the big three models (that does not include the gem by the way) do not agree then that normally means that there will be a merging or correction across all three models until a middle ground is found. This has happened time and time again and the synoptics being shown now is no exception.  At least I suppose we have a few seasonal days coming up with a few wintry showers and some ice and frost around.

Here's to the next roller coaster ride.

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

One run and the GFS “has this in the bag”? Brilliant, even for this forum ?. 

Even if the GFS 00z run comes to fruition, it is not the same Atlantic onslaught as it was showing only a few days ago, so let’s not forget that convenient truth. It has already moved to the Euro / GEM outputs significantly. 

On the back of today’s output, the swingometer has swung a little away from a prolonged cold spell and it could well be a trend that will be continued, but likewise by this time tomorrow all these perceived losses could’ve been reversed and we could be clamouring over a full deck of great model outputs. Wouldn’t exactly be the first time...

Either way, I’m just very happy to see these sort of chart outputs occur for the beginning of January. All good fun! ?

 

I agree..things have a chance of change..but unlikely.

The issue being it isnt 1-gfs run its been v-consistant with its evolving-evo's.

And now all other mods are aligning to it.

Still cold -given-..

Although the scope for notable cold-and worthy snowfall is fading fast!!!

If surface cold crisp days and servere frosts are your thing then you have cracked it!!

I'll agree that battleground scenarios are our ace card... with perhaps some snow flurrys in the mix here and there!!! In the meantime.

So again its back to watching things unfold.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
11 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

It appears the GFS can hold its head a little bit higher this morning. Not surprising as it looks like that very deep cold in the US is driving everything at the moment.  

An easterly at this point would always be a bit of a mumdane affair given the temps in Europe. I would say enjoy the cold crisp weather the next few days and then start praying for some SSW event to displace the cold more towards Europe!

I don’t think we need a SSW for Europe to cool down, it’s coming. 

In ten days time most of the states will be in double figures and like squeezing a balloon with water in, the cold spills out over Europe. 

8E631CC5-5017-4692-BF9F-FA591C863036.png

42266766-0AD1-40CF-85A5-2E673F21EE27.png

6D6C30D3-F893-44B6-8AEE-3816B8DA5CB6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Gfs 00z looks good in FI when we get some cold zonality and snow at times from a westerly flow!:cold::D

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 minute ago, comet said:

Never could get over confident on possible upcoming cold/easterly spell when the gfs was so adamantly against it and this morning myself and many other posters doubts  have been realised across the big three models.  A blink and you will miss it cold snap although I suppose there will be some surface cold across the country for a couple of days as we go into next week.

When the big three models (that does not include the gem by the way) do not agree then that normally means that there will be a merging or correction across all three models until a middle ground is found. This has happened time and time again and the synoptics being shown now is no exception.  At least I suppose we have a few seasonal days coming up with a few wintry showers and some ice and frost around.

Here's to the next roller coaster ride.

 

In all probability no model is right yet. This is a tad verging on lunacy the rollercoaster isn’t even on the tracks yet the block is yet to form. I don’t see a middle ground option here, well not from what I’m seeing this morning but that’s foolhardy to just go by a morning suite more interesting changes to come no doubt.. 

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Posted
  • Location: North Yorkshire
  • Location: North Yorkshire
1 minute ago, Weather toad said:

I don’t think we need a SSW for Europe to cool down, it’s coming. 

In ten days time most of the states will be in double figures and like squeezing a balloon with water in, the cold spills out over Europe. 

8E631CC5-5017-4692-BF9F-FA591C863036.png

42266766-0AD1-40CF-85A5-2E673F21EE27.png

6D6C30D3-F893-44B6-8AEE-3816B8DA5CB6.png

Excellent post WT,the chatter on here will change over the next 48hrs that's for certain.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Gfs scores ,Ecm crawls back to the Gfs kicking and screaming:oops:

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
7 minutes ago, Weather toad said:

I don’t think we need a SSW for Europe to cool down, it’s coming. 

 

Does seem to be trending that way. Warmest start to January for 10 years here. Bit confused by the weird comments re a cold Europe this morning, or lack thereof. It doesn't make the slight bit of difference to an easterly, as was seen in charts from a few days ago. People look a little too much just at Europe, but the northern hemisphere as a whole should be glanced at. Europe can cool down very quickly with the right setups and it isn't a case that damage has somehow been done by a warmer than usual December/early January.

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Well a lot of back slapping over the gfs this morning. But how can it be correct over something that hasn’t happened yet. I’m sorry but I will withhold putting out the bunting and balloons for the gfs just yet. And stick with what the likes of Steve murr nick Sussex have been telling us over last few days. Still expect few more twist and turns yet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Seriously, if we can't have a proper easterly I would rather see stormy cold zonality with snow at times from a westerly flow such as the Gfs 00z shows..:)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC still looks fascinating to me?

Potential battle ground scenarios on the menu with the block to the NE forcing the jet to split to our west-

One could argue its FI but the charts at 192 onwards suggest plenty of interest as the Atlantic disrupts-

ECMOPEU00_192_34.png

ECMOPEU00_216_34.png

ECMOPEU00_240_34.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Seriously, if we can't have a proper easterly I would rather see stormy cold zonality with snow at times from a westerly flow such as the Gfs 00z shows..:)

Couln't agree more.

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