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Model output discussion - into 2018

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This ECM could still be rescued but that's not the point - the trend is crap.

I have to admit it’s looking more like a chilly/cold spell only lasting 4/5 days then easing off - cold not established enough for any battleground events going off this morning.

ECM at 144 850s are very poor, this is when front start hitting from the West. I imagine as rain!!!

no wrist slashing here, just posting what we have access too - you can’t polish a t**d!!!

90515139-F2B2-40FC-9D5F-FBFDE697DF88.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Don’t be so quick to judge pretty alike to UKMO not bad at all. Again that polewards movement block is not collapsing! 

202A1670-CAA4-4522-98B5-82048B91CDD4.thumb.png.dbc8b75f68ab92dee5573539905c0ee1.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Very -well done gfs...

A very different looking ec-this morning...

Gfs had this one in the bag! ?

Yesterdays 12z... 

This morns..00z..

Stark difference!!

ECM1-168.gif12z

ECM1-144.gif00z

Edited by tight isobar
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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Very -well done gfs...

A very different looking ec-this morning...

Gfs had this one in the bag! ?

Well apart from the fact that none of this has actually happened yet eh :D

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Sparkiee storm Seasoned

Sparkiee storm

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I have to admit it’s looking more like a chilly/cold spell only lasting 4/5 days then easing off - cold not established enough for any battleground events going off this morning.

ECM at 144 850s are very poor, this is when front start hitting from the West. I imagine as rain!!!

90515139-F2B2-40FC-9D5F-FBFDE697DF88.png

There is a lot more cold out west in the Atlantic than there is over Europe on that chart , I think there would be more chance of wintriness with a cold zonality than what's coming from the east. (obviously from current projections).

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Very -well done gfs...

A very different looking ec-this morning...

Gfs had this one in the bag! ?

I’m sorry I’m baffled by this statement..... pretty odd looking I must say but nowhere like GFS.

62BDEDC1-CC56-4DC5-8F26-3EAEF3D209FC.thumb.png.954b3c1e3678b1f9155b7de4d4c77d28.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Well apart from the fact that none of this has actually yet eh :D

Theres almost solid model agree my friend...

All models aligning to gfs....

Complete op agree...

Thats good enough in my book!!!

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Still a pretty strongScandy block at 168, just not quite feeding those colder winds over us - maybe later on it will!! 2nd bite etc...

8A95B420-0333-42F3-BF5D-A1146D91EC2F.png

Infact the inject of WAA from the Azores could really help this set up.

Edited by Ali1977
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TallPaul Aficionado

TallPaul

Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth
Posted
47 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

The high is sinking as fast as the titanic now - there is nothing to prop it up over the med or Balkans.

Have we not been here a billion times before? Deep trough in the Atlantic, fat saggy high over Europe and us in no man's land inbetween the two.

I think some members need to open their eyes a little and stop the turd polishing.

....but we can still roll it in glitter ???

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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted
Just now, tight isobar said:

Theres almost solid model agree my friend...

All models aligning to gfs....

Complete op agree...

Thats good enough in my book!!!

I’m sorry mate, but did you REALLY expect far Russian stretched Easterlies? Events that don’t happen hardly ever?!

The EC looks so very different, and we aren’t down and out yet. specsavers (or any other optician) is down the road, past the bins on the 3rd right

 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

The trend is that the gfs has moved far more to the ecm than the ecm has moved to the gfs. Well there's a surprise. 

 

If we only could view the gfs we would be talking about upgrades, if we could only see the ecm we would be talking downgrades. It can only be disappointing if you have seen a day 10 chart and thought its nailed it. Thankfully I've been around long enough to know that until all 3 are on the same page it will get modified. Still much to be resolved.

Edited by That ECM
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, Snowmadsam said:

I’m sorry mate, but did you REALLY expect far Russian stretched Easterlies? Events that don’t happen hardly ever?!

The EC looks so very different, and we aren’t down and out yet. specsavers (or any other optician) is down the road, past the bins on the 3rd right

 

I didnt expect nothing of the sort pal!!!

Only as the gfs was the odd 1 out for so long- as most, i thought a tie would develop in line with other output!!

The only ones whom, need specsavers/optitions, are those who fail to see the gfs had this one sorted.

Or so its highly-likely if you fail to note that...then its you my friend who needs ya eyes sorted!!!!

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Blocks not going anywhere on EC 

IMG_3208.thumb.PNG.b249c1ad05da6581f33d78797310606d.PNG

just a shame that the real cold air is isn't in place before this stage.

Many more twists and turns to come I think .

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

One run, many more to come. 

GFS of course usually stands firm till right at the last minute, even at T96 it has and will change its hand.

Juat because the ecm is not as good does not mean to say it's all over. 

You are talking about a very complex and massive atmospheric event going on watching computers try and decipher what will happen.. 

Computers get it wrong to! 

 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
47 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Big ECM coming up, with what’s come out this morning you have to think there would be a slight back track atleast - you never know though. What could be happening is a slight backtrack to a SE flow around 120 then possibly an Easterly reastablishing around 168 - this seems to happen on some GEFS ENS this morning. 

Maybe not 168 but ECMat 192 screams potential with cold now lining up again to our East heading our way. This is a tricky set up to call I have to say, I think whatever anyone is saying now either way, will be wrong by tomorrow....

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

At 192 EC finally cold enough for any encroaching fronts to fall as snow

IMG_3209.thumb.PNG.c488cb4c9582b9bb45999c1013b457a7.PNG

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I have to admit it’s looking more like a chilly/cold spell only lasting 4/5 days then easing off - cold not established enough for any battleground events going off this morning.

ECM at 144 850s are very poor, this is when front start hitting from the West. I imagine as rain!!!

no wrist slashing here, just posting what we have access too - you can’t polish a t**d!!!

90515139-F2B2-40FC-9D5F-FBFDE697DF88.png

It will be cold at the surface without a doubt , I also think ECM could well give snow in the West

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted
10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Theres almost solid model agree my friend...

All models aligning to gfs....

Complete op agree...

Thats good enough in my book!!!

Well let's see what the actual weather does before we  call anything shall we:D.......after all that's the actual decider model

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

That is one rather stark difference between ECM and GFS at day 8 to exemplify:

93EDF0D5-751B-47B7-962C-7DFCEF5AEF7A.thumb.gif.c44c5cd3a9e64ff5e762b1ad4a05a7e8.gifB1794076-D0D4-4002-8816-31FA1B8299D2.thumb.png.6d3c29afbd5b2769ef9170665d31209c.png

The microscale dynamics0+/196 are for the bin....

As the overall pattern looks solid until the point..

 

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Quote

 

Runs are still ok this morning, its a cold theme that's the first thing , I also thing ECM offers snow in from the West.........pretty much similar to the Met update really

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