Model output discussion - into 2018

[The Eagle]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well when EC collapses the block this morning i will unreservdly eat humble pie!!!

Don't eat it all. A good bit needs to go around.

[MR EXTREMES]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO is very good in my opinion on the face of it, it may not look good.

Consistent with taking +ve heights to NE poleward that’s important sustains the longevity of the block and subtle hints of the Atlantic disrupting se against the block. In no man’s land at 144 but 168 will be interesting to see! 

Absolutely we don't want heights to far east or sinking into southeast Europe.

But still there's been a trend this season with se diving low pressure.

As long as the Azores stays either subdued or stays out to our west or Northwest we should be ok.

 Certainly not worrying about the GFS if ukmo and ECM look alike at t74 perhaps t96 then that's more likely the correct trend.

GFS wants to blow away Scandinavia block just like that,

Much more drama to come but I still believe winter will slowly take hold over the next ten days or so.

 

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Morning folks - the 0z GEFS are better though so the trending is not all one way...

Are they out yet mulzy?

Edited January 4, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Banbury]

17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO is very good in my opinion on the face of it, it may not look good.

Consistent with taking +ve heights to NE poleward that’s important sustains the longevity of the block and subtle hints of the Atlantic disrupting se against the block. In no man’s land at 144 but 168 will be interesting to see! 

Agreed and not far off the GFS control 

[northwestsnow]

Must admit i'm a bit out out of my depth trying to decipher what ukmo144 would show- i'd stab at the flow being SE off the continent but i may be wrong there-

[snowfish1]

8 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Don't eat it all. A good bit needs to go around.

Do you think a lot will be tucking into a slice or will GFS edge more in line??

[Banbury]

15 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Morning folks - the 0z GEFS are better though so the trending is not all one way...

Going through them up to 240 there are some decent runs IMO 

[Snowman.]

The models are slowly coming together. And as said the other day no one model had it nailed. The GFS was/is way to progressive today it's starting to get it but as soon as it hits low res all is lost.

GEM went for a classic straight styled easterly which is on the other end of the spectrum that the GFS is on.

So what happened? They formed a mid ground of the block holding against the Atlantic but not aligning itself well enough to advert colder ups. All can still change with the UKMO being the only model to have something move SE of the high heading west.

If anything the block is too strong which also shuts out Atlantic inroads to are needed to prop the block up. 

ECM should give us a good feel of where we are at.

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Are they out yet mulzy?

They’re coming out and there are still a fair few showing a much colder pattern out to 240 ish. All at 240 below

[mulzy]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Are they out yet mulzy?

Yep NWS - quite a mixture by day 8 including quite a few ECMesque solutions.  No need to feel bad this morning - we are still very much in the game.

Crucial ECM run coming up though...

Edited January 4, 2018 by mulzy

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Must admit i'm a bit out out of my depth trying to decipher what ukmo144 would show- i'd stab at the flow being SE off the continent but i may be wrong there-

You mean 168? I’d agree veering more easterly in time. Stage looks set for a lengthy cold spell. 

[tight isobar]

Just a quick one, until the ecm drops out.

There could be a 'massive' hats off to the gfs coming up!??. All mods have most certainly reverted via 00z suites more in line with the american model!!!

Still a cold snap modeled...but again a packing together of the gfs combination/evolution.

Need to compare ec-before any more firming!.

Edited January 4, 2018 by tight isobar

[Banbury]

11 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yep NWS - quite a mixture by day 8 including quite a few ECMesque solutions.  No need to feel bad this morning - we are still very much in the game.

Crucial ECM run coming up though...

Totally , still all ok this morning 

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Just a quick one, until the ecm drops out.

There could be a 'massive' hats off to the gfs coming up!??. All mods have most certainly reverted via 00z suites more in line with the american model!!!

Still a cold snap modeled...but again a packing together of the gfs combination/evolution.

Need to compare ec-before any more firming!.

I can see why you think that but totally disagree . GFS for days showed the Atlantic bombing in with chilly NWlies, that’s not being shown now . I’d call it a score draw BUT it’s still not resolved just yet 

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You mean 168? I’d agree veering more easterly in time. Stage looks set for a lengthy cold spell. 

I meant 144

The issue here is europe being so mild...

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

The high is sinking as fast as the titanic now - there is nothing to prop it up over the med or Balkans.

Have we not been here a billion times before? Deep trough in the Atlantic, fat saggy high over Europe and us in no man's land inbetween the two.

I think some members need to open their eyes a little and stop the turd polishing.

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I can see why you think that but totally disagree . GFS for days showed the Atlantic bombing in with chilly NWlies, that’s not being shown now . I’d call it a score draw BUT it’s still not resolved just yet 

'Again' lets await the ecm ooz.

However we are quickly veering via mods-to a south easterly draw...with a firm direct easterly incursion being quickly diluted now (so it seems)..

And upper air-850s  diluting further with cause!!..

And cold incur being modified and shorter lived...

Snaps ukmo/gem!!!

With the heights less dense-and sinking overall....

 

[Ali1977]

Big ECM coming up, with what’s come out this morning you have to think there would be a slight back track atleast - you never know though. What could be happening is a slight backtrack to a SE flow around 120 then possibly an Easterly reastablishing around 168 - this seems to happen on some GEFS ENS this morning. 

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Big ECM coming up, with what’s come out this morning you have to think there would be a slight back track atleast - you never know though. What could be happening is a slight backtrack to a SE flow around 120 then possibly an Easterly reastablishing around 168 - this seems to happen on some GEFS ENS this morning. 

The issue being @120 once a S/E flow is established, everthing flops..so a 168 more defined easterly could be mythiical modeling!

So in short we need the ecm to align and tighten heights-then exact the flow...

Otherwise i fear a 2/4 snap- with non- worthy of mention-as things never really get going!!!

As other allude...very big ec-run this morning!!!!

Edited January 4, 2018 by tight isobar

[Weather-history]

GFS mean looks blocked at 180 hrs. Problem for me, is that we could end with a nothing pattern. No deep cold air to access, a lot of cloud and a static pattern that chews up most of the rest of January. 

 

[Ali1977]

DIdnt someone say all of MOGREPS ENS apart from 1 go for an Easterly at 168 - if so let’s not forget that.

[northwestsnow]

Im afraid EC looks to be backing off too

96 seems to show a more active northern arm.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im afraid EC looks to be backing off too

96 seems to show a more active northern arm.

Seems that way, but a little early to be sure . 120 again not looking great, 144 is the big one though. Can the low over Spain pull East a little and drag down a slider type scenario helping reinstate the block. Still plenty of heights in Scandy just not a great orientation!!

Edited January 4, 2018 by Ali1977

[swfc]

Hmmm not to many comments about gfs this morning being a joke then so far?

Still time for change obv but a slightly less pronounced look to things imo.obv the closer time range does remove the more over cooked scenarios but the nhp isnt for me primed for anything extreme cold wise.that said the atlantic may provide fun and games if it pushes westwards 

Edited January 4, 2018 by swfc

[feb1991blizzard]

This ECM could still be rescued but that's not the point - the trend is crap.