Model output discussion - into 2018

[koeleboe]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Anyone got the UKMO 168...

 

GFS 18z broken again past 120  ( the actual run not meteociel ...)

Here you go

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm in the in between camp - no big convective Easterly but potential battlegrounds and maybe a slower breakdown than expected and certainly a lot slower than the GFS.

[TallPaul]

1 hour ago, Hot & Sunny said:

Certainly looking chilly over the coming week. Temperature's then recover to near normal with a nice southerly developing in a weeks time. Temperature's in doubles digits across the south. 

 

How dare you try to derail the (upcoming) cold/snowfest anticipation...go back inside your nearly complete igloo...shame on you ??

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, koeleboe said:

Here you go

Not as good as the 0z.

[northwestsnow]

Yep...thats the benny hill music playing again in the background on 18z GFS..

[Chris.]

This it?

 

 

Looks like I was beaten though wondering which image was the right one. haha

[nick sussex]

The GFS delivers the double problem, still dragging its heels with the shortwave to the north and then flattens out the upstream pattern at the key timeframe which brings the PV much closer.

One you can get away with both stacks the odds against any decent undercut.

We'll see in the morning but the GFS seems determined to wring as much drama out of this as possible.

 

[london-snow]

I agree a lot with steve's thoughts and analysis as it has been proven time & time again that the GFS cannot handle easterlies well. 

Another point i may make is that the first push of cold weather is virtually nailed on its into early mind next week when disagreements start. That's near a week away peeps especially when we are talking about small details having big effects things such as the positioning and orientation of the HP & shortwaves galore. 

 

Take one one step at a time, Don't hang on every run & sanity will be sparred.

[swfc]

Lot of comments on the gfs again today being basically a waste of space.Is there any point on commenting or following the run then???.Imo its feasible but id be looking somewhere in between .

[Wilxy]

You have all been rick rolled by the GFS 18Z!

[shaky]

Gfs is being really stubborn here!!i swear its worse than its 12z ouput aswell!!it has to backdown by the morning otherwise i just dont see how the euros could be correct!!best thing is the gfs comes out first before the ukmo and ecm so if the gfs does not back down then i see the euros following on!!

[Duane S.]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well I'm firmly in the gfs camp here

It simply refuses to budge and I have to think it must be on to something.

We'll know in the morning but IF it's right it will be some victory

‘On something’ more like...

I would agree that it would indeed be a memorable victory, should it be proved correct (and no doubt what counts as a ‘victory’ will end up being errr subjective here in itself) but - despite some trying to have us believe GFS stands for Gold ‘king Standard, you could count the times it comes out on top of GFS v a Euro combo standoff and still have plenty of fingers to spare.

It’s evolution still cannot be totally discounted at this stage though of course.

[Frostbite1980]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep...thats the benny hill music playing again in the background on 18z GFS..

NWS why do you keep insisting that the GFS is so wrong? The event hasn’t passed yet so has not verified and as it is sticking to its guns like other models I wouldn’t be so sure it is wrong. Do you know something we don’t? And if it does verify will your opinion change? 

Im not looking for altercation however there is far too much GFS must be wrong it’s unreal....

[Mucka]

I thought this was the season of the /turkey, not the Ostrich? 

GEM,ECM,UKMO,GFS 24h 12z like for like comparisons yesterday/today (Reality V perception)

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, s4lancia said:

‘On something’ more like...

I would agree that it would indeed be a memorable victory, should it be proved correct (and no doubt what counts as a ‘victory’ will end up being errr subjective here in itself) but - despite some trying to have us believe GFS stands for Gold ‘king Standard, you could count the times it comes out on top of GFS v a Euro combo standoff and still have plenty of fingers to spare.

It’s evolution still cannot be totally discounted at this stage though of course.

Personally, I've seldom seen any one NWP product wholly correct over any other; merely an ultimate blended solution. The despondency from some I think stems from the realisation that a blended solution in this instance will not deliver the desired conditions. In fact, a blended solution could see us languish in no-mans land before an Atlantic visit.

[nick sussex]

Don't worry folks the love child of the ECM the ICON has improved from its 12hrs run!

 

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Lot of comments on the gfs again today being basically a waste of space.Is there any point on commenting or following the run then???.Imo its feasible but id be looking somewhere in between .

The gfs if often rubbished not too sure why. In my view its as good as the others if not better. I do take the view though that it might be weak on picking out Easterlys 

One last comment from me. I have never in all my years on here heard so much talk about the GEM. Has it this week been promoted to a top 3 slot? Upto this week it rarely got a mention yet lately we're getting constant updates ?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

NWS why do you keep insisting that the GFS is so wrong? The event hasn’t passed yet so has not verified and as it is sticking to its guns like other models I wouldn’t be so sure it is wrong. Do you know something we don’t? And if it does verify will your opinion change? 

Im not looking for altercation however there is far too much GFS must be wrong it’s unreal....

Its a pile of junk.

And no im not saying that because its poor for cold.

I have watched NWP for years...

In fact i dont even know why i look at it.

[Chris101]

Dare i say that Icelandic sw from 48-96 going over the top is a big spanner on the GFS, ECM makes hardly anything of it in that whole 48 hours.

[Spah1]

Beeb graphics looking similar to UKMO output. 

Nothing like GFS. 

[Britneyfan]

I don’t think met office use the GFS tbh 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

Beeb graphics looking similar to UKMO output. 

Nothing like GFS. 

Thats likely because like myself they rate Gfs as a poor model.

 

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs is being really stubborn here!!i swear its worse than its 12z ouput aswell!!it has to backdown by the morning otherwise i just dont see how the euros could be correct!!best thing is the gfs comes out first before the ukmo and ecm so if the gfs does not back down then i see the euros following on!!

Keep the faith mate.

All will be well..

[bluearmy]

Looking at the gfs day 8 and thinking about the eps mean anomoly countdown charts I put up earlier, the gfs isn't so far away in broad terms but it's so messy. the eps is made up of 50 runs at pretty well the same resolution as the gfs. no question that at day 8 the eps mean should be a better guide than gfs op. it won't take much for gfs to get to the other output and similarly, a.middle ground solution closer to the euros/gem should be fairly reachable. I'm not of the opinion (as Aaron) that a blend is bound to be a poor result. Some of the consistent models have to fidget a bit tomorrow - surely!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats likely because like myself they rate Gfs as a poor model.

 

Lol until it shows Easterlies for weeks from Kamchatka 

Just jesting

BFTP

Edited January 3, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST