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Model output discussion - into 2018

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
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Posted

Whilst the 18z goes off on a road to somewhere, have a look at the eps from days 10 to 8 and see how the scandi ridge has firmed up into something not far short of an omega block whilst the centre of th block has backed west from the Baltic states to central scandi. It should be noted that the flow across the top is a tad flatter by day 8 rather than becoming more amplified. Also a little more jet has gone over the top which could well assist in recurving cold uppers back west underneath.  The upper trough undercutting from the Atlantic has sharpened up and backed west a bit,  uppers/anomalies and mean jet. 

IMG_0730.thumb.PNG.19429cf4bc53b684dac5ecf213011a7a.PNG IMG_0731.thumb.PNG.004cd8344c00aeacff7f57ecebf1365a.PNG IMG_0732.thumb.PNG.46df3d84050100183a89b8e2aebaeb28.PNG

 

IMG_0733.thumb.PNG.63d43954f2665442702c1b4f14076d74.PNG IMG_0734.thumb.PNG.2cedd270c24e8081cd517e4ea6b9cd37.PNG IMG_0735.thumb.PNG.f5bfc7602d8512975f405a918193dd4f.PNG

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, snowice said:

Meteociel stuck102

Not on Wetz it’s not 

FC2E6D83-6839-4389-B9B4-FE0A5007A7F2.thumb.png.b8893f8adc42bcefcbf97f7fc2794645.png

Which is unfortunate 

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, clactongaz said:

Well if it is coming from the Moscow area it's only 3c tonight . Not cold for them

 

 

Don’t worry the continent will be cooling down rapidly into next week. And when there at 360 people in the model thread on a wet Wednesday night something’s brewing. :cold:

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Lowestoft Weather Enthusiast

Lowestoft Weather

Posted
  • Location: Lowestoft Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Lowestoft Suffolk UK
Posted

This could go down as the warmest mid-Winter easterly on record. We won't get sleet on Chilterns with those mild uppers. Cloudy, damp and cold sums up these charts.

 

a.jpg

aa.jpg

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted

Not looking as good as the 12z if you ask me...not sure why the optimism around this particular run?

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted
1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Not looking as good as the 12z if you ask me...not sure why the optimism around this particular run?

Agreed! By 150 hours the Scandi high is pushed further east compared to the earlier run.

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted

One major problem appears to be this annoying short wave that goes from our south, up the west side of the high pressure, instead of underneath it.

 

 

254F77CA-34EE-4932-A15F-EE4705E6DC2D.jpeg

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted

Ty Karlos. Good work !

Have done an edit on the image, and the classic way IMO to use this one is to have a look at the old adage get the cold in first.

Wetterzentrael charts hold the romance here ( purely aligned by colour scheme), but no matter. This chart displays what the flow can truly become vs a cursory glance at the output.

Another lens to look at things through when examining the cold potential. Not that anyone on here would be doing that..

Capture.PNG

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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Agreed! By 150 hours the Scandi high is pushed further east compared to the earlier run.

It's a disturbance in the flow to the south west of the main 'winter cyclone' that GFS creates and develops far earlier than other models that causes problems down the line. Given it's now at 54h when it starts to do that, we needn't wait long for any correction to happen. Should have already been resolved but that area is often the last to be so.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst the 18z goes off on a road to somewhere, have a look at the eps from days 10 to 8 and see how the scandi ridge has firmed up into something not far short of an omega block whilst the centre of th block has backed west from the Baltic states to central scandi. It should be noted that the flow across the top is a tad flatter by day 8 rather than becoming more amplified. Also a little more jet has gone over the top which could well assist in recurving cold uppers back west underneath.  The upper trough undercutting from the Atlantic has sharpened up and backed west a bit,  uppers/anomalies and mean jet. 

IMG_0730.thumb.PNG.19429cf4bc53b684dac5ecf213011a7a.PNG IMG_0731.thumb.PNG.004cd8344c00aeacff7f57ecebf1365a.PNG IMG_0732.thumb.PNG.46df3d84050100183a89b8e2aebaeb28.PNG

 

IMG_0733.thumb.PNG.63d43954f2665442702c1b4f14076d74.PNG IMG_0734.thumb.PNG.2cedd270c24e8081cd517e4ea6b9cd37.PNG IMG_0735.thumb.PNG.f5bfc7602d8512975f405a918193dd4f.PNG

Beautiful.

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
Just now, Djdazzle said:

The deafening silence says it all! I know it’s one run, but this is a step away from the Euros.

2 steps forward and 1 back, that's the GFS for you.

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mbrothers Aficionado

mbrothers

Posted
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
Posted
18 minutes ago, clactongaz said:

Well if it is coming from the Moscow area it's only 3c tonight . Not cold for them

 

 

its not coming tonight

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
1 hour ago, Weather toad said:

I think your absolutely spot on. 

I remember watching that forecast on YouTube. 

I remember watching it when it was broadcast. Geez I'm get old.

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

Well I'm firmly in the gfs camp here

It simply refuses to budge and I have to think it must be on to something.

We'll know in the morning but IF it's right it will be some victory

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igloo Enthusiast

igloo

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

The deafening silence says it all! I know it’s one run, but this is a step away from the Euros.

the GFS should either get a crown or a retirement date after this episode is finally played out its simply not moving one bit

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Weather toad said:

I think your absolutely spot on. 

I remember watching that forecast on YouTube. 

I remember watching it when it happened, and the 1825 one and the countryfile the sunday before.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Well I'm firmly in the gfs camp here

It simply refuses to budge and I have to think it must be on to something.

We'll know in the morning but IF it's right it will be some victory

ECM GEM not budging either! 

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well I'm firmly in the gfs camp here

It simply refuses to budge and I have to think it must be on to something.

We'll know in the morning but IF it's right it will be some victory

So just to be clear what camp is that in as it moves location every 6 hours - pretty much like the Scandi high on its output-

GFS V pretty much every other model tonight - even it’s partner the NAVGEM has undercut on the 12z.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well I'm firmly in the gfs camp here

It simply refuses to budge and I have to think it must be on to something.

We'll know in the morning but IF it's right it will be some victory

Fair play JS...

:)

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Matthew. Seasoned

Matthew.

Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well I'm firmly in the gfs camp here

It simply refuses to budge and I have to think it must be on to something.

We'll know in the morning but IF it's right it will be some victory

I think the same was said last night January:D I think the GFS will slowly come on board in the next couple of days

Edited by Matthew.
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