Model output discussion - into 2018

[booferking]

Best i could find was EPS ENS 4.

Uppers -14 east coast

Country buried. That includes most of Europe to.

Edited January 3, 2018 by booferking

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Best i could find was EPS ENS 4.

Uppers -14 east coast

Country buried. That includes most of Europe to.

I'll take that one please, sir!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Paul White. said:

Lol I’ve been reading this thread since 2004 and what I notice from reading the thread and looking at the charts is the amount of  IMBYizm. For all of the new members if most of the weather models are showing the weather coming from the east like they are showing currently it’s hard not to notice the posters from Ireland and the south west and west Pennines dislike it. They dislike it because they know that most easterlies fail to deliver to there back yard. However if the weather is coming from North or North west then those posters become excited, at the same time some south and eastern contingent complain about all of the snow being wasted on the back of sheep on some northern hill. Don’t even get me started on wishbones lol.

I disagree about the topic from a earlier post describing the GFS as a “GOLD standard model” IB had three letters that he used a few years ago to describe  THAT ECM. 

Not one model is gold standard however I expect the outcome to be a close blend of UKM and ECMWF models for the next 7 to 10 days and all of the models are showing a Temperature decrease to fall below average for the foreseeable will that bring snow? Yes where ? No idea but I hope that to keep harmony within the forum snow is spread evenly throughout the UK 

 

Happy new Year 

 

Nope - my criticism is there isn't the uppers, you only have to look at my username on this forum and Jan1987 on the TW0 forum and my continued criticism of slushfest battlegrounds / PM incursions lately to realise my favourite synoptic is a big convective Easterly, the misconception is that some of these runs would deliver big for the South East where in reality they would deliver a few snow grains, you need low 500mb heights and low uppers for a history making event occurring.

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Paul White. said:

Lol I’ve been reading this thread since 2004 and what I notice from reading the thread and looking at the charts is the amount of  IMBYizm. For all of the new members if most of the weather models are showing the weather coming from the east like they are showing currently it’s hard not to notice the posters from Ireland and the south west and west Pennines dislike it. They dislike it because they know that most easterlies fail to deliver to there back yard. However if the weather is coming from North or North west then those posters become excited, at the same time some south and eastern contingent complain about all of the snow being wasted on the back of sheep on some northern hill. Don’t even get me started on wishbones lol.

I disagree about the topic from a earlier post describing the GFS as a “GOLD standard model” IB had three letters that he used a few years ago to describe  THAT ECM. 

Not one model is gold standard however I expect the outcome to be a close blend of UKM and ECMWF models for the next 7 to 10 days and all of the models are showing a Temperature decrease to fall below average for the foreseeable will that bring snow? Yes where ? No idea but I hope that to keep harmony within the forum snow is spread evenly throughout the UK 

 

Happy new Year 

 

You obviously missed slidergate..... I’ve  not seen any imby posts today to be honest.

[bluearmy]

What’s the sliding high @West is Best?

observation 1: days 7 to 9 we now see a low upper anomoly extend from Russia west to the uk. Up until this mornings run, the area to our east was solidly anomalously high uppers. 

Observation 2: the probability mslp show the high centre solidly Scandinavia days 7/8 and slipping slowly se to become n Ukraine day 10. 

Observation 3: the extended eps are going to be higher clustering more mobile less undercut again. 

observation 4: at day 10 the eps mean 850hpa wind is split far more ne than se. 

Observation 5: not for the first time recently, the control develops a deep cold long fetch easterly 

Edited January 3, 2018 by bluearmy

[stodge]

Evening all

Plenty of angst and anguish on here tonight - not sure why:

ECM 12Z OP T+240 from last evening:

ECM 12Z OP T+216 from tonight:

GEM 12Z OP T+240 from last evening:

GEM 12Z OP T+216 this evening:

GFS 12Z OP T+240 last evening:

GFS 12Z OP T+216 this evening:

Confused ? You will be - as GFS quietens down the Atlantic, ECM springs a dartboard LP of the kind we saw from GFS earlier in the week. GEM tilts the HP from the Azores toward Greenland - retrogression anyone ?

As others have said, getting agitated over intra-run variations is, as Chris Rea once observed "the road to hell".

I've no clue.

 

[Hull snow]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

Best i could find was EPS ENS 4.

Uppers -14 east coast

Country buried. That includes most of Europe to.

Surely the east coast should be buried

[karlos1983]

13 minutes ago, booferking said:

Best i could find was EPS ENS 4.

Uppers -14 east coast

Country buried. That includes most of Europe to.

 

 

Yes please 

[tvh3382]

42 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Folks I wasn't saying it won't be interesting and that we may see some fantastic developments. Merely that the sliding high scenario looks to have been called right by the GFS with the boundary event called by it. We shall see but I don't have any enthusiasm in suggesting it may have called this right.

But the GFS was showing westerlies from early next week but it is going to be late next even IF it does manage to push in. 

 

To say GFS is correct is laughable let alone misleading to new members.

 

43 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Folks I wasn't saying it won't be interesting and that we may see some fantastic developments. Merely that the sliding high scenario looks to have been called right by the GFS with the boundary event called by it. We shall see but I don't have any enthusiasm in suggesting it may have called this right.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All , there is a fight tonight between the to foes ecm and gfs but who makes any sense? None really but I think gfs is the winner?

[NeilN]

If that comes off in two weeks.....wow! 1979 the repeat. Where is my guitar - I'll give us a rendition of Bright Eyes  

[Malcolm Edwards]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes please 

Yes albeit with west cornwall on board too would be nice.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Malcolm Edwards said:

Yes albeit with west cornwall on board too would be nice.

 

It would be lovely to get Camborne in on the act.

Edited January 3, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Malcolm Edwards]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It would be lovely to get Camborne in on the act.

And Marazion 

[Paul Sherman]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nope - my criticism is there isn't the uppers, you only have to look at my username on this forum and Jan1987 on the TW0 forum and my continued criticism of slushfest battlegrounds / PM incursions lately to realise my favourite synoptic is a big convective Easterly, the misconception is that some of these runs would deliver big for the South East where in reality they would deliver a few snow grains, you need low 500mb heights and low uppers for a history making event occurring.

Oh you reckon ?

Lol you really need to look back at events before making such bold statements.

34cm of Level snow from 46 hours of continuous snow with -10 uppers and 1010 500mb heights

[shotski]

Considering what they have at the moment, that is an amazing temp anomaly for the states. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Oh you reckon ?

Lol you really need to look back at events before making such bold statements.

34cm of Level snow from 46 hours of continuous snow with -10 uppers and 1010 500mb heights

520's is low!!! - its much lower than what is being progged now Paul.

EDIT : I also got 6 inches in 2 and a half hours from that cold spell.

Edited January 3, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[kevvo]

6 minutes ago, Malcolm Edwards said:

Yes albeit with west cornwall on board too would be nice.

 

Don't forget Weymouth and Portland. We have snow shields that deny any assault from white stuff.

[damianslaw]

ECM holding firm with the block to the east fighting off the advances of the atlantic but not without a battleground scenario, GFS backtracking with its atlantic onslaught and also showing a battleground scenario as we head through latter part of next week. This is not normal January service, and indeed bears some resemblance to old weather lore which says traditionally the continental cold becomes a much harder beast to tame as we enter the second half of the winter, roughly from mid Jan.

Some of the weather forecasts for the winter seem to be shaping up well at the moment with their talk of knife edge, the UK has certainly been on the boundary between cold and mild, with each playing out at times but never winning the battle, it looks like the cold is back again making for a very interesting season so far, with sudden swings from cold to mild.

The models have a look of late Jan 96/early Feb 96 about them at the moment, though back then we had a colder continent. I remember how the atlantic stalled on the 5/6 Feb was forced back and then the atlantic came back in around the 9/10, but there are signs that this time it may take quite some time, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another slider low scenario with heights ridging NW from the NE thanks to the azores taking up a displaced residency to the west, GFS has some cold uppers from the NW and energy looks like sliding SE.

Lots of interest at present, with the chance of a protracted cold period setting in, something we haven't seen in January properly since 2013.

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All , there is a fight tonight between the to foes ecm and gfs but who makes any sense? None really but I think gfs is the winner?

Which gfs ? Yesterday ? Tuesdays? The 12z ? The 00z ? 

If you chuck out a slightly different run every six hours then at some point it’s going to look close !!  Alternatively, if you drift little by little towards the middle ground which turns out to be close then you fool plenty into thinking thhats what you’ve been showing all along !

 

[Paul Sherman]

But feb

I get what your saying but I am like John Holmes a very old f art indeed and this looks decent, the saying get the cold in first and worry about the snow always is true, the last 7 days of November 2010 was freezing fog and frost with snow pellets, then the snow comes, the same in Feb 1991 the same in Jan 87.

if we had models back then we would not have seen what we can see now, which as I always say is a bad thing. Lets get the HP in, get the ground cooling down, if the flow becomes favourable great, if not lets enjoy a January Scandi High 

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

520's is low!!! - its much lower than what is being progged now Paul.

EDIT : I also got 6 inches in 2 and a half hours from that cold spell.

I was just about to say, the parameters shown there are nothing like what are being shown at present. Thought I was going bonkers for a second!

But I do agree with the sentiment of getting the cold in first!

Edited January 3, 2018 by CreweCold

[The Enforcer]

43 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

I don't know what will happen at T0, but to suggest the GFS has "called this right" is somewhat at odds with the evidence:

GFS 12z T216 31st Dec

GFS 12z T192 1st Jan

GFS 12z T168 2nd Jan

GFS 12z T144 3rd Jan

I'd call that a pretty substantial backtrack. 

Could anyone post a similar comparison for the last four ECM 12z for next Tuesday?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

But feb

I get what your saying but I am like John Holmes a very old f art indeed and this looks decent, the saying get the cold in first and worry about the snow always is true, the last 7 days of November 2010 was freezing fog and frost with snow pellets, then the snow comes, the same in Feb 1991 the same in Jan 87.

if we had models back then we would not have seen what we can see now, which as I always say is a bad thing. Lets get the HP in, get the ground cooling down, if the flow becomes favourable great, if not lets enjoy a January Scandi High 

I'm very much forward thinking and don't buy into this notion that the ensembles are useless at forecasting SOME detail, the reason there is 73 runs (EPS / GEFS) is to take into account probability, until you see a majority clustering in the semi-reliable that have a nicely propped up block with circa -8c to -10c and low heights heading or about to head our way then I will remain cautious.

Not sure JH would be calling a decent snow event this far out, he's very much a 48 hours man when it comes to convective snowfall.

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I was just about to say, the parameters shown there are nothing like what are being shown at present. Thought I was going bonkers for a second!

And they were not shown like that 7 days before the snow started in 2010, oh and guess what the GooFuS was showing the Atlantic blowing away the Block with ease even before the 30th November that year. 

Crikey being the 8th member ever on here in 2003 I really have been on here a long time and I remember things like that, it makes me laugh every time this synoptic is shown