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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

T144 is good. Strong block in place. Finally managed to attach the image!

IMG_0292.PNG

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

ECM1-144.GIF?03-0

Oh look it's great.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

144 blocked but its saggier and alignment looks flaky for bringing in the same cold uppers as the 0z did.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

144 blocked but its saggier and alignment looks flaky for bringing in the same cold uppers as the 0z did.

Indeed, the ECM and UKMO are at the tipping point tonight whereby any more progression towards GFS would mean the E'ly will not happen. There is no more slack left in the progression.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Think I’ll pass on this Easterly uppers of about 0-2c  :nonono:where are the Easterlies of years gone by with -10hpa or lower invading from the east with  snow showers piling in on the East. Coast

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

144 blocked but its saggier and alignment looks flaky for bringing in the same cold uppers as the 0z did.

Indeed, the ECM and UKMO are at the tipping point tonight whereby any more progression towards GFS would mean the E'ly will not happen. There is no more slack left in the progression.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, CreweCold said:

Indeed, the ECM and UKMO are at the tipping point tonight whereby any more progression towards GFS would mean the E'ly will not happen. There is no more slack left in the progression.

Yes Unfortunately.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

And the good old ecm prevents a mass brawl in the Mod thread. Amen 

B6C71EBE-F332-4214-AE3E-4F6F323A0ABF.thumb.png.c6e72319c84b092a6e69e4a06c1a0319.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Hemispherically speaking 144z is better than the 0z run, far more ridging to the north. In turn the HP might 'back off' to a degree and undercut possibilities.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

certainly looks like the undercut, says 'up yours' GFS

ECM1-144.GIF?03-0

Not dissimilar to the 168 UKMO this morning

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed, the ECM and UKMO are at the tipping point tonight whereby any more progression towards GFS would mean the E'ly will not happen. There is no more slack left in the progression.

Better 168 for potential uppers than I thought though, SE component not as bad as it would be end February, obviously synoptically these runs are all corkers lately, they just don't look like packing a punch.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Marvellous EC !!.

Atlantic kicked into touch.

:)

I thought you were off to work? :D

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Seems to have been after the great runs on the oz runs an outbreak of P-E-T!!!Its commonly known as "pre easterly tension" and affects generally males during winter.chill out folks its only weather fgs!!.Anyway after this mornings euphoria imo the outlook is looking ok for s brief flirtation with a easterly be it transient tostart with.The bigger picture is what happens after the atlantic puts the pressure on to the east.my punt will be a good ridge pushing up threw scan for a time then a push south east of the jet

I don't think the nhp is primed for a major outbreak of cold from the east but as tamara ete have mentioned many options going forward

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