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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Ignoring next weekend/early next week, as I'm fed-up of playing hunt-the-snow-grain...at this point, the trusty GFS seems to have plenty of potential - for a possible Euro-Azores link up - if not a lot else!

h850t850eu.png

But, by the time we get to this, it resembles an O-Level question: draw and name the usual position of the main weather-features that affect the UK's winter:

h850t850eu.png

I couldn't have placed the Icelandic Low & the Azores High any better if I'd tried!:yahoo:

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It isn't as good as this morning i agree.

Surely the block is more robust on th12z thus delaying the undercut I wouldn't say a down grade.:D

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Please refer to Phils post above- it would be dry and cold at the surface.....

Useful for a snow event where frontal systems push up against the surface cold. No use for generating convective snow showers off the North Sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
18 minutes ago, warrenb said:

You were all moaning about uppers last month and lo and behold a lot of you got snow at -2 uppers

That's because we were all 'on our uppers', back then...Now, we've got Snowmageddon to look forward to!:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, winterof79 said:

Surely the block is more robust on th12z thus delaying the undercut I wouldn't say a down grade.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

00Z showed a cut off high north of Scotland- the 12z doesn't, so in that respect i would say its a slight downgrade- it does however  leave open the door for frontal snowfall from 144 onwards.

Its fine margins though so i think this rollercoaster is just beginning-GFS is steadfastly refusing to play ball..

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Ignoring next weekend/early next week, as I'm fed-up of playing hunt-the-snow-grain...at this point, the trusty GFS seems to have plenty of potential - for a possible Euro-Azores link up - if not a lot else!

h850t850eu.png

But, by the time we get to this, it resembles an O-Level question: draw and name the usual position of the main weather-features that affect the UK's winter:

h850t850eu.png

I couldn't have placed the Icelandic Low & the Azores High any better if I'd tried!:yahoo:

 

 

God!...please don't let this happen, only 1 way the weather will go from there and as you put it but in another way through a school test - Zonal!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Surely the block is more robust on th12z thus delaying the undercut I wouldn't say a down grade.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

I agree and this could set up some fun and games as the fronts from the west hit the in situ cold. I think it is very interesting times.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, danm said:

Useful for a snow event where frontal systems push up against the surface cold. No use for generating convective snow showers off the North Sea.

Agreed :)

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Surely the block is more robust on th12z thus delaying the undercut I wouldn't say a down grade.:D

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

That looks absolutely fine to me, energy under the block.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That looks absolutely fine to me, energy under the block.

Thats this mornings-(168).

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

That looks absolutely fine to me, energy under the block.

knowing our luck that UKMO at 168z will fill in situ...

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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m

Whatever your chosen method of predicting the weather, the 'ignore' function is a great way of making the Model Discussion Thread a calmer experience. :)

It will be an interesting ECM shortly. At the moment it seems pretty certain that we will have a few days of cold, hopefully sunny, weather. It looks pretty dry to me but that will be a change to today and tomorrow and the variation in weather is one of the great things about living in the UK. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
3 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Can anyone with a good knowledge clarify when cold uppers ( e.g. < -6) are needed and when they are not needed for decent snow to occur? 

As mentioned in one of my replies above, cold uppers are needed in order to generate snow showers off the North Sea. 

Deep cold uppers are not needed in battleground scenarios where weather fronts push up against a block of surface cold. For example both snow events from December occurred with relatively mild uppers.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, timboy666 said:

you work nights northwestsnow

Fraidso :(

And im starting with this horrid chest infection too - double :(

Hopefully EC will be decent tonight- ive posted the ukmo 120-144 transition below- looks good to me!!

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats this mornings-(168).

So the 12z UKMO at 144h should of looked like this                            instead the output ended up like :whistling:             BIG DIFFERENCE'S :hi:

image.thumb.png.d36033a2e1ec969dce27a57c5f0fc907.png                                                      UW144-21_lxg0.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

ECM will be even better than this mornings.

And the gem will continue with a wintry theme.

An easterly is coming that's the first bit.

Rest will evolve and surprises very likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

So the 12z UKMO at 144h should of looked like this                            instead the output ended up like :whistling:             BIG DIFFERENCE'S :hi:

image.thumb.png.d36033a2e1ec969dce27a57c5f0fc907.png                                                      UW144-21_lxg0.GIF

It’s only been 12 hours since that 168 chart was produced, so I think you’re wrong here. Will need to see tomorrow mornings 144 chart to compare.

Edited by danm
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

So the 12z UKMO at 144h should of looked like this                            instead the output ended up like :whistling:             BIG DIFFERENCE'S :hi:

image.thumb.png.d36033a2e1ec969dce27a57c5f0fc907.png                                                      UW144-21_lxg0.GIF

Differences yes. Downgrades...no 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Just now, danm said:

It’s only been 12 hours since that 168 chart wasn’t produced, so I think you’re wrong here. Will need to see tomorrow mornings 144 chart to compare.

Thanks for highlighting that to me, I wasn't sure :pardon:

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