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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

UKMO looks ok at 120, 144 will be quite telling

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

gfs-5-108.png?12

The Jet is not Curving back, So the Block will get pushed East / South East.

It is worth noting that the Northern arm of the Jet has a more vertical look to it over iceland.

Edited by frosty ground
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

UKMO not as good as this morning's run - not terrible though but not a trend we want to see.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&time=144&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0

A tad more energy in the N arm of the jet for the UKMO.

I suspect that after all this, none of the models will be correct and we'll end up with a middle ground scenario. Unfortunately, a middle ground scenario won't be supportive of the Scandi block that many of us want to see.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

UKMO isn't as good as ECM or GEM but a lot better than GFS. It has also been the most consistent run to run for me so how energy is split on the 144 chart will be interesting

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Day 5 charts

UKMO/GEM/GFS(Eventually)

UW120-21.GIF?03-17   gem-0-120.png?12   

The UKMO is pretty close to the GEM at day 5 which turns out very well again. Worth noting that todays 12z UKMO is better than yesterdays day 6 chart the same model.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

UKMO 144

UKMOPNH12_144_1.png

GFS appears stuck on +108 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

must be meteociel issue, fine on wetterz

GFSOPNH12_138_1.png

depending on ones definition of fine that is :rofl:

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png hgt300.png

At this stage the one key gain is that trough centred over the France-Italy border. This has not been that far east or well defined on previous runs, and serves as a pedestal on which the Scandi High can rest for a bit. It'd not last very long though if the jet raged over the top - but the angle looks alright on the 12z GFS at this stage. Also good to see the N arm after the split aligned close to due north, though a bit west of north is desired.

If it wasn't for all that relatively mild air pumped into Europe ahead of this setup, it'd be a classic bitterly cold easterly with us all looking ahead to a potential battleground scenario with the Atlantic disrupting against the cold airmass.

h850t850eu.png hgt300.png

A few frames later and it's so very poised... but you know what, the angle looks good. As I said before though - a long road to getting some proper cold in due to the earlier more SE angle of the jet through Scandinavia.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, Banbury said:

Thats yesterdays 

no, today is Wednesday! it shows chart for next Tuesday 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Cracking GEM again

GEM.thumb.png.6b4815267864916a7c83881dfa7903a9.png

UKMO is okay but not as good as this mornings run. GFS continuing not to budge.

I do get a horrible feeling this is the beginning of the climbdown.

Edited by Danny*
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

The block holds but is not under cut so we have low to West and high in the east.

The UK gets under the Atlantic influence and the Scandi high gradually gets pushed away. Earlier runs has the high controlling our weather with an easterly flow till the end.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Everyone knew this was going to be a roller-coaster but for now, the 12z NWP output is a considerable downgrade.

UKMO, GEM, ICON all worse than their previous runs. GFS about the same to day 6.

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Everyone knew this was going to be a roller-coaster but for now, the 12z NWP output is a considerable downgrade.

UKMO, GEM, ICON and GFS all worse than heir previous runs.

I'd say the GFS is an improvement but I agree that the other models and in particular the ICON and the UKMO are worse this afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Cracking GEM again

GEM.thumb.png.6b4815267864916a7c83881dfa7903a9.png

It's always day 7/8+ with the GEM, the models are well and truly dangling the carrot at the moment

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Everyone knew this was going to be a roller-coaster but for now, the 12z NWP output is a considerable downgrade.

UKMO, GEM, ICON and GFS all worse than heir previous runs.

gemnh-0-168.png?12 gemnh-0-240.png?12

GEM, really? Might want to check that again?

hgt300.pnghgt300.png

As for GFS, it's not much I know but here we see a  better NNW-angled curve to the jet from N. Europe. Frankly it's a prime undercutting setup and if GFS doesn't go for it properly, well I reckon that's down to model shortfalls more than anything else.

 

Generally I suspect we are chasing a chilly high scenario as a means of riding out the next thrust from the west (as the MJO traverses phases 4-5) by a continued split jet diverting the westerlies to the N and S of us.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

UKMO and GEM are still far better than I expected from this cold spell so I’m still happy, hopefully another robust ECM - a few days ago we weren’t looking at anything as cold as what’s now forecast so people should be happy with that!!

GEM is in fact v good still

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Everyone knew this was going to be a roller-coaster but for now, the 12z NWP output is a considerable downgrade.

UKMO, GEM, ICON all worse than their previous runs. GFS about the same to day 6.

I'm sending out an SOS to Steve murr to tell us everything will be alright!:D:help:

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Hardly crud is it?

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisionsUKMO

gem-0-168.png?12GEM

gfs-0-120.png?12GFS  better block 12z and lower heights to the south

gfs-0-126.png?606z

Edited by winterof79
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