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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Just now, karlos1983 said:

What a teaser that is @carinthian I especially like the southern threat of snow bit .....(licks lips) sort of ties in with Meto thoughts as well.

Appreciate the update. :)

 

I'm liking the southern threat bit as well Karlos and it does tie in with other things but as ever I 'll believe it when I see it.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I say what I often say in winter IF we have a block around. Timing the end is the devil. It was prior to computer models, we always tried to move the cold block before it actually went. Identical now with the models, in spite of all the changes and tweeks the forecast centres have added over the years.Instead of 48 hours prior to computers, as far as a human can predict on their own using basic meteorology, it is now 4-7 days out at times with the models, due to them being able to predict so much further ahead. If you don't get what I'm saying then 40 years or so ago we would not have had the remotest idea that the cold would be here into the weekend and would still probably be looking into the Atlantic for the next storm wondering when a weather ship might show something odd happening. True-believe me.

Cold air is dense so milder, less dense air has quite a job to shift it, even in our locality. On a larger scale see how long the major winter high over Russia and China takes in the spring to get broken down.

How long it will take is hard to tell but I will be very surprised if milder air has made much progress 7 days from now and not much more surprised if it 2-3 days even further on before it really gets in. As to what happens beyond then that is outside, what do they say (?), my pay grade!

 

:hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, Purga said:

The latest guidance is MOGREPS only goes out to T+168, at that range only 1 of the 36 did not have a easterly or south easterly in place this morning.

Reasonabe outlook for coldies.:)

Where did you get that gold from Purga? 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
13 minutes ago, comet said:

You have to remember nothing is set in stone.

Eh? But, not only are most of the models and the Met on board, but all the building blocks are nearly in place...What could ever go wrong!:D:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Where did you get that gold from Purga? 

It's just been quoted by a reliable man from UKMET Karlos - I'll PM the source if you like? :)

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Posted
  • Location: North Wales 208m asl
  • Weather Preferences: crisp frosty days in Winter
  • Location: North Wales 208m asl
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

Wow that is tempting fate, potentially absolutely anything and everything! :oops:After all we are talking about a potential easterly and I am old enough and been on here long enough to have seen lots go wrong in the past 10 years or more.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Purga said:

It's just been quoted by a reliable man from UKMET Karlos - I'll PM the source if you like? :)

not questioning it, but if there's something worth a read, yes please bud! :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

all the building blocks are nearly in place...What could ever go wrong!:D:cold:

A strong gust of wind from departing storm eleanor could blow the building blocks down but I seriously doubt it:D:santa-emoji:..I'm confidently looking forward to a cold / very cold spell:cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s only the icon but I hope the ukmo and ecm dont follow it too closely at day 5 ........

Quite a change from its earlier output that was holding the block firm.

Very gfsesque! 

Edited by karyo
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s only the icon but I hope the ukmo and ecm dont follow it too closely at day 5 ........

Severe snow storm?

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Remember guys getting a true easterly for our part of the world is as rare as hens teeth. Let’s see if the gfs pulls this one off over the euros.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

Without the strong enough initial ridge to pull the cold in that way, you can see here how a shorter-term sacrifice is needed in order to prevent the ridge from 'sagging' to the SE as per recent GFS runs; the required further-east positioning of the Euro trough means that more in the way of warmer upper-level air is driven into the flow upstream of the UK.

This being why the ECM 00z had that mediocre-to-interesting sequence of charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Another small "correction" from GFS toward ECM will please Steve.

gfsnh-0-108.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png

Sigh... still taking the jet more SE than S over Scandinavia which keeps it away from the likes of the ECM 00z in terms of the cold air being moved down to our east then southeast ready for import later.

It'll be a longer road to getting anything of note even if GFS disrupts the trough sufficiently.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Another small "correction" from GFS toward ECM will please Steve.

gfsnh-0-108.png?12

Yup nerves have just settled down now with that correction towards the euros!!not watch ukmo bodge this up lol!!

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