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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is still a worry for me....GFS is a good model and shouldn’t be dismissed 

In 2010, GFS was the model which kept trying to show the breakdown coming in, for weeks it tried. ...

 

I think it just has too much of a SW wind Atlantic flow bias in situations like this.

Edited by matty40s
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is still a worry for me....GFS is a good model and shouldn’t be dismissed 

Dont worry Ali, jus think Benny hill music when looking at GFS..

Image result for BENNY HILL GIF

PS the guy in the glasses is GFS..

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds

I agree. We should all be cautious. Every year one model stays away from the others when they're showing awesome charts. And the party pooper always seems to be correct. I would need to see a shift on the 6z to be comfortable. However I would have expected the shift on the 0z. 

MO update overnight is unchanged. Again a shift from that surely this afternoon 

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

I personally don't think that GFS is wrong it's been fairly consistent for some time in fact several days now .

GFS showed the Weak Scandinavian high before ECM and UKMO .

And has been consistent in lasting around 72hrs before been replaced by a more milder and blustery NWW direction....

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I'm very happy, the initial cold surge from the north later this week is in the bag with showers turning increasingly to snow and widespread frosts..then next week we have our best chance for years of seeing a prolonged easterly!..if you're a coldie, the potential is huge..enjoy the ride, I am!:drinks::cold::santa-emoji:

Yes agree. I can’t see it falling apart now with UKMO supporting the ecm. A different winter this time you can tell

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Posted
  • Location: North Yorkshire
  • Location: North Yorkshire
1 minute ago, matty40s said:

In 2010, GFS was the model which kept trying to show the breakdown coming in, for weeks it tried. ...

Spot on! I tweeted the same a couple of days ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Chatham, Medway, Kent - 197ft/60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Chatham, Medway, Kent - 197ft/60m ASL
10 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I personally don't think that GFS is wrong it's been fairly consistent for some time in fact several days now .

GFS showed the Weak Scandinavian high before ECM and UKMO .

And has been consistent in lasting around 72hrs before been replaced by a more milder and blustery NWW direction....

It hasn’t been any more consistent than ECMWF and GEM though.....just consistently in another direction.

Edited by ThamesStreamer
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Enough already GFS!

Quite unbelievable to see this earlier continued disagreement however the GFS has moved towards the others if you look at its T168hrs chart the ridge extending north and that ridge from the other side of the Pacific are similar.

The UKMO remains on board and that's the one which normally plays difficult in these set ups.

Even with the GFS dragging its heels it stills disrupts the trough to the west.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is still a worry for me....GFS is a good model and shouldn’t be dismissed 

Just checked the date isn't April 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS doesn' have a reputation.  We only use it because it runs four times a day and is free.

Of course it does, it's among the models with the best verification stats and thus if every single one of its ensemble suite is wrong that's a big hit for historically one of the top 2 models with the most data and money pumped into it.

I certainly won't be dismissing it just because they don't show what we wish as that is foolish, Sod's law says the occasion it calls it right will be to our detriment haha

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Of course it does, it's among the models with the best verification stats and thus if every single one of its ensemble suite is wrong that's a big hit for historically one of the top 2 models with the most data and money pumped into it.

I certainly won't be dismissing it just because they don't show what we wish is foolish.

Take note of the RAMP, it’s defo not 01 Apr

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Just checked the date isn't April 1st

Its no worse than the GEM and therefore the current solution shown is no less likely to verify

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The trend is definitely the coldies friend, upgrades all round since yesterday, special mention for the Ecm which in my opinion has a better handle on European blocking patterns. I think most of the uk will become very cold next week..in a nutshell...bad news for sidney!:D :cold-emoji:

imageproxy.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
1 minute ago, ThamesStreamer said:

It hasn’t been any more consistent than ECMWF and GFS though.....just consistently in another direction.

True. I'd personally like GFS to be wrong.

But with GFS showing the cold spell long before ECM and ukmo and almost identical runs for several days now upto T+168hrs. I suppose I'm going against the grain for many on here.

But it is was it is.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its no worse than the GEM and therefore the current solution shown is no less likely to verify

But its up against EC/UKMO

Which makes it very isolated- 

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its no worse than the GEM and therefore the current solution shown is no less likely to verify

Is that what this so called great model has become, no worse than the Gem ???

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

But its up against EC/UKMO

Which makes it very isolated- 

Ensembles aren't backing these fanciful op solutions though in any quantity, its still the outsider solution.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
10 minutes ago, Dennis said:

weekend is setup for cold air

54.png

That's heights in meters at which snow can settle.. isn't it? - not temperature. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Ramp said:

Is that what this so called great model has become, no worse than the Gem ???

But its ok to trot out the GEM when it shows what you want but not the GFS when it shows what you don't want.

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Just now, D.V.R said:

That's heights in meters at which snow can settle.. isn't it? - not temperature. 

its not 2m temps true - its where the zero degrees lvl is

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