Model output discussion - into 2018

[Ali1977]

BOOOOOOM 192 is an amazing chart....happy happy forum 

[Daniel*]

ECM looking rather a close match to GEM:

[shaky]

What a morning!!looking forward to the 06gfs now!!!gem ukmo and ecm not backing down at all!!

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM looking rather a close match to GEM:

Better I’d say, further north and GEM starts collapsing - not sure ECM will. Less snow showers in SW but sort term pain for long term gain etc 

Edited January 3, 2018 by Ali1977

[Daniel*]

ECM wants to play with something new Azores ridge doing a link up reinforcing the block dry but very cold. 

[Tony Beets]

2 hours ago, snowray said:

Wow. Lots of snow on the GEM beast from the east, yes please!

Looks like a good old Humber streamer!

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

You couldnt draw more identical charts if you wanted to!!ecm with the stronger high and looks better to undercut further west!!

It's just how we see things. For me at 144 ecm is lower than ukmo and although the ecm goes on to be very good IF it was lower again on the next run this would allow more energy to go over the top or at least more difficult to undercut.and therefore the later frames would look very different. This is why I prefer the ukmo as I see less risk. Been burnt to many times and I would prefer the less risky option. 

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Better I’d say, further north and GEM starts collapsing - not sure ECM will

Worse if snow is what you are after. But perhaps better for longevity. 

That is one formidable block on EC count it won’t be going anywhere in a hurry!!

Edited January 3, 2018 by Daniel*

[radiohead]

A very cold Day 10.

[Daniel*]

Can’t be unhappy with that can you? Very very cold final few frames from EC.

[West is Best]

The ECM continues the cold-fest. It feels like a long time since we've seen charts like this:

However, the transition from the Scandi slipping high to the retrograding Shetland high looks a bit nail biting:

Exciting times though! 

[Chesil View]

Just to add a touch of realism here. 

The synoptics look great but still a fur coat and no knickers job for me.

The really cold uppers don,t arrive till 192 which is a lifetime in weather forecasting.

One positive point is better block orientation at 240 than the 12z

Edited January 3, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[West is Best]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

What a morning!!looking forward to the 06gfs now!!!gem ukmo and ecm not backing down at all!!

I'm not sure UKMO can be counted 'in' can it? It only goes to T144 and it's the 48 hours past that which are critical. Will the high move north as per GEM & ECM to unlock a vicious easterly or slide into Poland as per GFS?

[mulzy]

ECM - broadscale very similar to previous runs.  No point fussing over the minor shifts in the orientation of the high or uppers at this stage.  The block isn’t going anywhere.

Edited January 3, 2018 by mulzy

[West is Best]

It's worth bearing in mind by the way that a week ago we were apparently locked into endless Atlantic zonality. It just shows you how quickly things can change, for good or ill. 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Just to add a touch of realism here. 

The synoptics look great but still a fur coat and no knickers job for me.

The really cold uppers don,t arrive till 192 which is a lifetime in weather forecasting.

It takes very little to get that much colder air in earlier a slight adjustment makes a huge difference it’s very much unresolved the surface will be cold I’m fairly certain this will be the coldest spell of the winter (so far). 

It’s best we do not see run after run of perfection you can’t expect that then we’d get overly complacent. 

[January Snowstorm]

After looking at the comments this morning I thought we were locked into bitter cold by Saturday. Instead I see the cold uppers being pushed further and further out now arriving middle of next week. Are we not chasing cold in la la land aka FI

[Seasonality]

Well then! This is more like it, and a theme shown several runs on the trot. The warm air over Europe well and truly gone, colder air stabbing westward. A good solid block in the right location. Lovely to look at but keeping my enthusiasm 'on ice' until the output gets much closer to t+0hrs! 

[northwestsnow]

Well its GEM/UKMO/ ECM against GFS-

My mind was made up before EC came out and the EC just confirms it..!!

Seems its GFS against the world now, surely GFS is wrong here- 

I cant wait up for the meto update as i have worked all night but surely to Goodness Exter have to change their stance today?

[Weathizard]

Well if the GFS and ALL it's ensemble suite is wrong it's reputation is going to take a very big hit in here. The ensembles are pretty much unanimous.. odd.

[carinthian]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well its GEM/UKMO/ ECM against GFS-

My mind was made up before EC came out and the EC just confirms it..!!

Seems its GFS against the world now, surely GFS is wrong here- 

I cant wait up for the meto update as i have worked all night but surely to Goodness Exter have to change their stance today?

GFS would seem like that. It has support of some sorts with the US Navy model outputs. Clearly post 144t  these two models seem to be struggling to evolve the increasing cold  block over NW Europe this weekend. Endless progressive runs now  to advance some form of trough distruption towards UK from a more zonal type but the prognosis does not look right me in the period 144-210t.  GFS certainly grinding this one out going down screaming and shouting . If it wins out will be like goal of the decade !

C

[jvenge]

ECM Control similar to Op. Quite a beautiful long haul easterly actually. 

Mean seems to have shifted a bit from the 12z yesterday. Someone will likely confirm later, but guessing the atlantic cluster is noticeably smaller.

[Ali1977]

9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Well if the GFS and ALL it's ensemble suite is wrong it's reputation is going to take a very big hit in here. The ensembles are pretty much unanimous.. odd.

This is still a worry for me....GFS is a good model and shouldn’t be dismissed 

[northwestsnow]

49 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Just to add a touch of realism here. 

The synoptics look great but still a fur coat and no knickers job for me.

The really cold uppers don,t arrive till 192 which is a lifetime in weather forecasting.

One positive point is better block orientation at 240 than the 12z

EC is frigid - 850s dont look inspiring 120-168 but it will be bitterly cold with the high parked to the north of scotland..

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Well if the GFS and ALL it's ensemble suite is wrong it's reputation 

GFS doesn' have a reputation.  We only use it because it runs four times a day and is free.