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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Yes GEM rock solid.

gem-1-186.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GEM is even better this morning than it was last night

gem-0-180.png?00

That is a real beaut, especially for the SE if it came off.

GFS 00z marginally better than 18z but is it a trend?

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Wow. Lots of snow on the GEM beast from the east, yes please!:yahoo:

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gem-2-198.png

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gem-2-216.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMOs on the bus @96 @ 120 ! ( just a smidge warmer through 120 ) but the flows flat so no warmer @144

 

Pretty good consistency with yesterday's 00z too. fingers crossed.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Never seen the GEM show -12c uppers over the SE, usually it underestimates the cold by a few degrees.

gem-1-228.png

gem-0-240.png

gem-2-240.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

UKMO says yes at 144. 

Phew.

E09603FC-47FD-4E0B-A38E-A77F847AF23D.thumb.gif.de0e4c4dbcbb0a31cfaca5ee6dddce13.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

the GFS is gradualy getting there but at the rate it's going it will be a week late the UKMO and GEM look identical at 144h this mornings ECM will finally seal it either way

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, CreweCold said:

UKMO at 144 is a peach. Would love to see days 7+

LOL, were you not in the GFS camp last night???

cmon now crewe dont be shy!!

:D

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

GFS scandi is all over the place, its like a jelly on a plate, i swear it just never learns the strengths of a good block till last minute.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, igloo said:

the GFS is gradualy getting there but at the rate it's going it will be a week late the UKMO and GEM look identical at 144h this mornings ECM will finally seal it either way

Its trash, does anyone care what it says?

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL, were you not in the GFS camp last night???

cmon now crewe dont be shy!!

:D

The GFS could still be proven correct. 

Golden rule where easterlys are concerned- never count your chickens until we're within 72 hrs.

Years of model viewing has made me learn the hard way!

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, CreweCold said:

The GFS could still be proven correct. 

Golden rule where easterlys are concerned- never count your chickens until we're within 72 hrs.

ROFL...

Believe me, its wrong...its garbage.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

The GFS could still be proven correct. 

Golden rule where easterlys are concerned- never count your chickens until we're within 72 hrs.

Yes let’s Semi dismiss the GFS - but keep an eye on it expecting it to inch round each run

its moving per prediction 12z > 18z > 00z In pidgeon steps....

All we need is a decent ECM

At least the cold has now hit T72....

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes let’s Semi dismiss the GFS - but keep an eye on it expecting it to inch round each run

its moving per prediction 12z > 18z > 00z In pidgeon steps....

All we need is a decent ECM

At least the cold has now hit T72....

Fair post Steve.

I appreciate that you understand that easterlys are finely balanced beasts. The UKMO and GEM runs are extremely encouraging but we still cannot dismiss the GFS idea because the model may simply have a better handle on the split jet flow on this occasion. We have been stung many times over.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Fair post Steve.

I appreciate that you understand that easterlys are finely balanced beasts. The UKMO and GEM runs are extremely encouraging but we still cannot dismiss the GFS idea because the model may simply have a better handle on the split jet flow on this occasion. We have been stung many times over.

Yep agree - I will run some commentary on it 00z into 06z

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep agree - I will run some commentary on it 00z into 06z

I don't.

Its an absolutely garbage model- trash can.

Ive just forced myself to watch the 00z GFS and its laughable- it hasn't got a clue- there should be Benny Hill music playing in the background..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Beginning to look like the nay sayers / manic depressives are going to be very very wrong lol.

Going to be some very happy campers this morning!!!

Hm your demeanour flips as much as my cat. :D 

My profile pic isn’t of my cat though - very good start to the day from what I can see posted above. Happy days.

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GFS mean @180 now showing a larger package of energy moving SE with around 75% showing the undercut - 

Again steady progression is the order of the day 1 step nearer to a closed low to the SW

00z V 18z mean -

0D41F4F0-EE41-49A7-938E-A2D989BCE200.thumb.png.e41d156450f8502fae2f3feb938a4899.png1CCBDE73-2DE2-44AF-A0E5-A51A03C573F8.thumb.png.a4eb5431408c86e27da98e4d53f16059.png 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

I was surprised to see such consistency from the GEM, it may be right or wrong but a model with consistency is good if you ask me and should be taken seriously. I think we are now looking at atleast 6-7 days of cold air, with frosts and some snow showers around.  Probably the best cold spell for 4 years so that’s not to bad after 2 good snow events for some in Dec.  Could be some pretty severe frosts in places, especially if snow cover although I’m not sure there will be too much of that away from east coasts maybe.

if this next ECM has another great run I’ll be a tad surprised however, but I’m keeping fingers crossed. GFS was a slight shift for the better too.

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