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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Well if this ecm beasterly fails.  The member known as That ECM will have to change his name to Those two ECM,s

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Posted
  • Location: Near Reading - 100m asl
  • Location: Near Reading - 100m asl

Just been taking a look at forecast temperatures for Poland and Ukraine - they are currently, and forecast to be, comfortably above zero. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A very good run from the ECM but room for improvement in the early stages in terms of depth of cold.

In terms of the initial depth of cold the UKMO is better. Still an issue with low heights not getting further se and being too Iberian based.

In the cold light of day I give it 8/10.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nail biting stuff mate..

Prayer mats out for GEM/EC ...

Gripping stuff - we DESPERATELY need Exeter to change tone ..soon.

Not reall nws. The update says moving  erratically east which suggests to me that they are not convinced in that outcome

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Nail biting stuff mate..

Prayer mats out for GEM/EC ...

Gripping stuff - we DESPERATELY need Exeter to change tone ..soon.

Probably pertinent to point out that even if the GFS is wrong and we get a UKMO middle ground scenario, it probably won't be enough to tee us up nicely for an ECM type evolution. It's pretty much all or nothing WRT the easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Just a word of warning, despite the coldish uppers, there would be very little precipitation with that Easterly, you need lower 500mb heights for it to be a classic.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Wow wow wow, stunning run.  Lovely uppers at 192, feeling absolutely frigid with the easterly flow.  

ECU0-192.GIF?02-0

What's great is that at 240, there's further chances a plenty!  As Tight Isobar brilliantly put it, the freezer door truly is padlocked with a bit of super glue for good measure.  C'mon 18z, time to join the party.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

A classic easterly on ECM one for the archives if it pulled off, ice days for most powdery snow showers widely in E/SE lovely. Perfect time of the year for it we coldies have been through a lot just once eh? :) 

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just a word of warning, despite the coldish uppers, there would be very little precipitation with that Easterly, you need lower 500mb heights for it to be a classic.

Yes it's by no means a classic, but it would be ten times better than the crud we've had in recent years.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

So we have storm, stacks of rain, another storm and then a plunge of bitter cold air with N, ywith snow, snow showers and if ECM has it right.......an easterly lock out at t216.   Beeb will probably say 7 c for London on the weekend, but that will change.

I’m not convinced of an easterly lockout, but I do think we have 7 day cold spell with a battle to follow between Atlantic and big block over Scandi.  What is in the mix imo are sliders under the block.  Let this targeted period in the ‘rhythm of winter’ come forth

ECM is just one hell of a run

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
2 minutes ago, o0herbie said:

Just been taking a look at forecast temperatures for Poland and Ukraine - they are currently, and forecast to be, comfortably above zero. 

5a4bd7bb42ca3_ScreenShot2018-01-02at19_03_49.thumb.png.a814625cbbc1906585c2e791370aa491.png

The cold we tap into comes from much further north. They can keep their warmth while we bathe in cold swathes of ice days :D 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

That was one of the best runs I think we have seen for a good few years. The synoptics are virtually a classic and although uppers could and should be better at this time of year they are not to shabby either. I must say in support of the ecm run that it has been steadfast and in fact seems to be upgrading the cold and longevity of cold spell with every run.

Excellent stuff.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 144> 168 & into 192 is about as classic as you can get tonight...

Synoptically yes. However we need much colder uppers if we are to experience a proper classic on the ground. 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Well if this ecm beasterly fails.  The member known as That ECM will have to change his name to Those two ECM,s

Though this run is ace, “that ECM” still has a mythical quality that will be hard to beat...

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Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
20 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It's looking the less favourite but.......... oh the fun of the chase especially when it's for an easterly. Let's be honest thos it will take all 3 on board and down to t72 before we get really excited and then someone will moan that their area looks dry!!

And that someone will be me...easterlies are no good for here ..snowise.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
2 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

Does this chart show the a scandi high linking up with a high in the Atlantic and if so what would the outcome be??Screenshot_20180102-190406.thumb.png.fb16eb9278baa95df1d0891571d33e6f.png

Potential retrogression then if we're lucky the high will be off to Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Though this run is ace, “that ECM” still has a mythical quality that will be hard to beat...

There was that ECM or GFS early January last year I think it had -16C minima in London it was the most bitingly cold run I’ve ever seen a real beast from the east bit like 1987.  :blink2:

Typically every year without fail we get at least one run that is out this world... 9/10 goes bad. 

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Synoptically yes. However we need much colder uppers if we are to experience a proper classic on the ground. 

In 2012/13 EC overestimated the uppers a lot, but that was of course a long time ago and we haven't had proper cold spells since, so no idea if this still is the case

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
8 minutes ago, smhouston said:

A lot of people writing of the GFS...do so at your peril. We've been here time and time again, where there is always one model on it's own and things end up being watered down towards that model.

Situations like this, you have to be getting them within T48 to even start feeling confident. As things stand, things are still in FI

Nice viewing, but that's all so far

Yes agreed. EC & GEM closest and go on to be crackers but as you rightly state huge caution needed as UKMO & GFS are starting to go on their own paths from 72/96. UKMO still not bad and GFS the least liked option on the table.

ECH1-96.GIF.thumb.png.78fb1049fbf359784cdfeb318bba242f.pnggemnh-0-96.thumb.png.ccb6025d7ec245549fa39d4899fbe111.pngUN96-21.thumb.GIF.3eed3abd9a4268d30fe6487015c0494b.GIFgfsnh-0-96.thumb.png.14d587116b8b1542b6cd0a6f3c16f4c2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well, it's an upgrade on the 00z Ecm..miles better than the Gfs so if I was offered this on a plate I would gratefully accept it!!!..the first Easterly of the winter could be on the way!!!:cold-emoji::)...getting interesting now isn't it coldies...:smile:☺??

168_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

192_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

192_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp850.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850.png

240_mslp850uk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just a word of warning, despite the coldish uppers, there would be very little precipitation with that Easterly, you need lower 500mb heights for it to be a classic.

Indeed, but in almost all easterlies, get the cold in first and then look toward a widespread snow event. Much my preferred pattern, just a pain they only crop up every other decade (ish), or so it seems of late anyway!

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Interesting t240 on ECM, Block to come under pressure, no bad thing for snow potential

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

It's worth remembering that Easterlies rarely ever arrive with very cold uppers piling in from the outset.

Whilst I too would urge copious amounts of caution at this stage, to pick any sort of (major) fault with this run would just be plain wrong.

Obviously some places would do better than others in the UK (as in every cold spell) but take away any IMBYism and this is a seriously good run. A proper classic 80s setup, just getting it forecast on an ECM Op this close in is a very rare thing indeed.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
4 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

And that someone will be me...easterlies are no good for here ..snowise.

Feb 96? 1ft 1/2, for showers i agree but bone dry and cold will do, lets just get it here first mate?

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