Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ecm showing the way??!!..

Heights are in good situ..and as again..forming for colder incur via cold pooling to the east..

Gfs truly out of kilter..

Though, my money is in an'18z gfs ecm/gem(canadian) variation...

The wrap is eager, for greenland placement...but with weaker stability east of iceland the modeling i think will become even more 'eyecatching'....

Ec leading the way!

ECM0-144.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

T144, ECM, GEM, UKMO, GEFS. 

Spot the odd man out.:crazy:

ECM1-144.gif

gem-0-144.png

UW144-21.gif

gfs-0-144.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
35 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Gem has this nailed why can't it  ... its been very  consistent run to run ..:D

IMG_0316.PNG

I want to believe I really do but ....

Cracking t144 chart by the ecm . Originally the thought was all or nothing first bite but Teits did say it may take two bites and its starting to perhaps look like this might be the case.  Much better heights over the pole and wow to the t168 chart. I believe, I believe.

ECH1-144.GIF?02-0ECH1-168.GIF?02-0

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Those that suggested this run would edge towards the gfs and those that said the ecm would downgrade? This is a two finger answer:D:D seriously tho, it's not about second guessing and ego it's about watching and enjoying. FWIW I'm not suggesting ecm has it right, time will tell eh? Little blob of -12 heading for Mr Murrs house:D

IMG_0281.PNG

IMG_0283.PNG

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Can I mention the R word going forward from day 7 on the ECM or will I face the ban hammer if I do?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Anyone spot the Arctic High ridging to the Scandi?

image.thumb.png.99b7b185aa01b49322459f9bf287ed85.png

A great 192hr - Excellent in fact. :)

image.thumb.png.f46e24907580933066e3f029277f70a1.png

Edited by Purga
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Bank!!! ECM says I’ll see your 00z and raise you the 12z 8)

55C039F7-9331-4A4B-B8A5-2364DC2BF64C.thumb.png.04b3574dadc42160935b01e9d323eae3.png115B9491-B4FA-4025-ABCA-021DEA4400FA.thumb.png.35a6cb1a6e09e6d6d1d0890fd02bf4d4.png

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Just one observation on GFS.

If we look at then ensembles in graph form then it might seem to be a bit of a downgrade, especially re 850 temps.

But if you wade through the ensembles then it is clear they are increasing the strength of the block and slowly seeing the potential for undercut.

A couple of days ago all the models were bringing the Atlantic in after a couple of days, now we are seeing battleground scenarios and even classic undercut with the high getting further North as is required to draw in the colder upper air.

So the big picture is really quite favourable and say that as someone who expected the block to break down within 3 days.

If it does hold on and we start to see undercut modelled more consistently then some nice upgrades should be in the pipeline - I'm still not totally convinced even though I hope it happens.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

:cold:

ECM1-192.gif

ECM0-192.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Those that suggested this run would edge towards the gfs and those that said the ecm would downgrade? This is a two finger answer:D:D seriously tho, it's not about second guessing and ego it's about watching and enjoying. FWIW I'm not suggesting ecm has it right, time will tell eh?

IMG_0281.PNG

Surely 18Z will be the one that backtracks, maybe 00Z though, GFS surely wrong here according to experts

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Holy cow i'm loving where this Ecm run is going, looks even better than the 00z!:cold-emoji::D

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Just now, nick sussex said:

Beta blockers helpline now open! :D

Special discounts for NW members ! Thrilling ECM run so far.

Pmsl gonna be good old ride lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

And a stunning NH view

image.thumb.png.d208f3445feac06545e6408c47eda0a9.png

image.png

Edited by Purga
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Differences start as early as 72 hours on the gfs!!firstly that deeper low which mixes out all the cold before it reaches south and then the shortwave around iceland remains attached to the vortex across the northwest!!need to see less deep low at 72 hours on 18z and also seperation of shortwave around iceland!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Surely 18Z will be the one that backtracks, maybe 00Z though, GFS surely wrong here according to experts

It's looking the less favourite but.......... oh the fun of the chase especially when it's for an easterly. Let's be honest thos it will take all 3 on board and down to t72 before we get really excited and then someone will moan that their area looks dry!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Seems as if we'd all be better-off if we eschewed tonight's Pub Run torture-session!:yahoo:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Did not expect this run - kind of head scratching now !! Still need GFS on board but the pub run may do that !!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...