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Model output discussion - into 2018

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Gem has this nailed why can't it  ... its been very  consistent run to run ..:D

IMG_0316.PNG

Such a bueatiful chart *sighs.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

ECM T72

ECM1-72.GIF?02-0      Yesterdays 12: ECM1-96.GIF?12

Edited by SN0WM4N
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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted
5 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECM T72

ECM1-72.GIF?02-0      Yesterdays 12: ECM1-96.GIF?12

I’m going to assume that’s good, seems to be better heights towards Greenland?

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

T96

ECM1-96.GIF?02-0   Yesterdays ECM1-120.GIF?12

Not as good as yesterdays 12z but still good.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Haven't read beyond the last page (just got in) but it seems like plenty of drama has ensued today!!

Thats what makes the winter MOD thread so addictive. 

But going on GEFS, UKMO and what looks to be a solid GEM this potential easterly has legs.

GFS ens show the op to be quite mild within its suite.

 

IMG_3201.thumb.PNG.d670486e4cdbf471c4d312a2cc2a24a5.PNG

Eyes down form ECM

:)

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

GFS still looking the most out of kilter at 96.

gfsnh-0-96.thumb.png.9c0b7ddded8446458c8861d15eef4a80.pngUN96-21.thumb.GIF.db6dd938bfb586cfac83dbf7fae64dcd.GIFgemnh-0-96.thumb.png.77971be727f8c11186c05547d7bbe3c0.pngECH1-96.GIF.thumb.png.699a85f60e6fc419617da754de4d704d.png

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

T96

ECM1-96.GIF?02-0   Yesterdays ECM1-120.GIF?12

Not as good as yesterdays 12z but still good.

In so many ways that’s a downgrade.

1) the shortwave near Iceland flattening the high more.

2) the low over Europe not clearing as much to the south east.

 

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

In so many ways that’s a downgrade.

1) the shortwave near Iceland flattening the high more.

2) the low over Europe not clearing as much to the south east.

 

It also stops pushing the high east..... as per the 120 hours chart.

 

Has anyone been having redirects from the mete website?

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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

T96

ECM1-96.GIF?02-0   Yesterdays ECM1-120.GIF?12

Not as good as yesterdays 12z but still good.

To me looks as though the low over the N West of US is is slightly less deep, and slightly more energy is being leaked towards Iceland where a more definite shortwave has developed.

Additionally the new high is not as intense.

All slightly weakening the cold duration over the UK.
 

Still much better than the GFS though.

 A good spell though not record breaking is on the cards  (models?)

MIA

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

GFS definately the odd one out.

T120

ECM1-120.gif

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Our favourite comparison.

GEMgem-0-120.png?12 ECM ECM1-120.GIF?02-0

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

I think people need to wait until the run has actually come out before jumping on the downgrade bandwagon?

T120 is absolutely fine.

Wait.thumb.gif.272cdba4344847fd4dd3f0c8d2c34122.gif

T144 cold air backing Eastwards across the UK.

144.thumb.gif.359f982ab5bffa5f0b8f7917dad57038.gif

Edited by Danny*
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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

I would say ECM still closest to GEM at 120.

In order of GEM, ECM, UKMO, GFS...

gemnh-0-120.thumb.png.9f990c262d7900551f6eb4269614ba2d.pngECH1-120.GIF.thumb.png.c10d4a69ffafff94e8a4b3570e4513bb.pngUN120-21.thumb.GIF.7ab3482ce97ce5d0add70eba7580eecf.GIFgfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.f37752f7845a9f248205c47ac6f56aab.png

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted (edited)

ECM 12z looking good at 120hrs

image.thumb.png.ba7e38a2ef42b46acd98187679622365.png

and 144hrs

image.thumb.png.3e102dfd03237cf89c506e7aacd9f2e5.png

ECH1-120.GIF.png

gemnh-0-120.png

gfsnh-0-120.png

UN120-21.GIF

image.png

Edited by Purga
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

144

ECM1-144.GIF?02-0

A deep sigh of relief there. That is one of the closest we have come to something decent in a long time.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, Danny* said:

I think people need to wait until the run has actually come out before jumping on the downgrade bandwagon?

T120 is absolutely fine.

Wait.thumb.gif.272cdba4344847fd4dd3f0c8d2c34122.gif

And t144 is quality 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Hell, T144 is about as close to a classic Scandinavian High as you can get!!

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
Just now, That ECM said:

And t144 is quality 

Yup, the ECM champ is running with the GEM!!!!!! Let me get it right this time!:yahoo:

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Ecm is beautifull throughout so far!!youd think if its right the gfs will start to follow it from the 18z tonight and if not then 00z at the most!!

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Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted

Looks like some cold reinforcements coming look north east as a chunk of the vortex pays Sweden could get good this.....

ECBDC747-B4AA-4A86-9BBA-6504F0FCEBF0.gif

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
6 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Heights rising over Italy ? What S Sussex mentioned earlier

Preferably the low heights need to be further east from Iberia but the ECM saves the day because its block is better orientated, no sag on the eastern flank and theres a big difference towards the Pacific between it and the GFS.

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Preferably the low heights need to be further east from Iberia but the ECM saves the day because its block is better orientated, no sag on the eastern flank and theres a big difference towards the Pacific between it and the GFS.

Indeed Nick - guess the evolution is still red on your scale? ?

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