Model output discussion - into 2018

[Dancerwithwings]

12 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes I got my posts a bit mixed up.

I was just thinking that if ECM sticks to its guns like the GEM has then its going to be a memorably victory for the models. They will be the champs alright.

UKMO says no to extending the cold spell, out at T144 though anything can happen yet of course, the high has not actually sunk yet on that chart.

Yes between 120h & 144h looks like the HP is going in a North/East direction.....Not sinking!!!

Be interesting to see it at 168h

Edited January 2, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[frosty ground]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Well yes. We're at the point of peak land mass cooling and at the time where European cold pools can develop in situ. To see virtually the whole of mainland Europe in positive uppers in early January is remarkable to me. 

Though I guess a lot of us are now seeing things like this as the norm! 

The Winds are from the south, hence the warm uppers, Plus the Foehn effect of the Air passing over he Alps. perfectly normal for with the Wind Direction.

 Southerly winds from Africa
 Still from a southerly direction. 

Perfectly Normal, a;ways has been always will be uless Africa and the Med freeze over,

[Met4Cast]

The GFS doing what it always does and blasting blocking away as if it's not even there, it wont develop like that.

Whether the energy in the Atlantic goes under the block or not as per GEM/ECM is another matter, but the Atlantic certainly wont push in like the GFS has it, too progressive as usual. 

Good to see GEM sticking to it's guns, lets hope the ECM does the same this evening. UKMO 12z not bad either, closer to the ECM at 144 than it is to the GFS.

Edited January 2, 2018 by Danny*

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, frosty ground said:

The Winds are from the south, hence the warm uppers, Plus the Foehn effect of the Air passing over he Alps. perfectly normal for with the Wind Direction.

 Southerly winds from Africa
 Still from a southerly direction. 

Perfectly Normal, a;ways has been always will be uless Africa and the Med freeze over,

The foehn effect is localised. The foehn effect doesn't cause a whole continent to be massively above the norm in terms of upper cold. On the whole, Europe and west Russia have been anomalously warm for weeks. 

[warrenb]

It is as if the GFS gets to 168 and then thinks "I give up" and just keeps the same pattern.

[frosty ground]

Need to see the Jet do this, Nothing wrong with it going over the top as long as  it curves back, not sure any model is showing this thou.

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The foehn effect is localised. The foehn effect doesn't cause a whole continent to be massively above the norm in terms of upper cold. On the whole, Europe and west Russia have been anomalously warm for weeks. 

It takes only a few days for the Continent to cool down, The synoptics in this case draws even miler uppers arss the west of Europe (again on the GFS at least)

[carinthian]

7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

  UKMO run looks fine to me. Certainly looks more longevity for cold than GFS again.  Without full access to their data, possible split in the Atlantic flow on this chart, whereas GFS wants to send most of the energy over the top and basically sink any thoughts of a block to the NE. However, its jet profile not that particularly strong and not fully zonal as well.

C

Another weird run from GFS. The deep low off SW Iceland at 168t just drifts NW well into West Greenland and leaves a rather slack pressure flow over NW Europe. Sort of no mans land but not COL. Not sure what to make of the run again, looks odd to me or still struggling to deal with the UK/ Scandinavian colder scenario to develop  at the end of this week.

C

Edited January 2, 2018 by carinthian

[Daniel*]

UKMO is not far from being very good but it looks doomed to sink not long after, not enough northerly latitude on HP. South East Europe is very mild, there’s the danger - GFS 12z brings a ‘warm’ aloft easterly. 

[Snow Grain]

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the outputs have not shown a true easterly anyway.  I would suggest that the weekend outlook is rather cold, rather dry, then becoming wet and windy from the West by mid next week.  This is, as it stands today, but of course there is the chance of upgrades, but we need to see these soon!

 

[MattTarrant]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO is not far from being very good but it looks doomed to sink not long after, not enough northerly latitude on HP. South East Europe is very mild, there’s the danger - GFS 12z brings a ‘warm’ aloft easterly. 

I must being seeing different charts? It warms up because the winds are not easterly, they veer around to almost southerly! 

[nick sussex]

Still no resolution to the Scandi high and we're now getting to the stage where one model or models are going to look very foolish.

The UKMO is fine in terms of not bringing any milder air in from the Med, although the colder uppers go the surface flow will still be cold.

The GFS on the other hand is much more quicker to push the high east and the issues start from the more developed shortwave near Greenland.

What might seem inconsequential on a global scale is really quite important here and that shortwave remains attached to the upstream trough, the UKMO clears this cleanly eastwards.

Given the UKMO and GEM disagree with the GFS at this lead time then it would be very surprising if the ECM joined the misery club in terms of the GFS.

Just a small thing which might be pertinent here, apparently the ECM and GEM have better data coverage north of the Bering Sea than the GFS. This issue was mentioned a while back by NOAA when they were discussing shortwave activity in that area.

Edited January 2, 2018 by nick sussex

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO is not far from being very good but it looks doomed to sink not long after, not enough northerly latitude on HP. South East Europe is very mild, there’s the danger - GFS 12z brings a ‘warm’ aloft easterly. 

There's an even worse danger, the GFS 12z is about to bring in a 'warm' at surface and aloft Westerly.

[Weathizard]

12 minutes ago, BlazeStorm said:

ECMWF is very interesting. I understand it isn't the go to, but I believe these are early signs. Denies the atlantic entirely, and develops what looks like a merging Scandi and Greenland high?

Have a feeling a prolonged cold spell could follow after this weekend. Recall seeing the models countlessly deny the intense cold we experiend in 2010/2011, which left rivers and lakes up here in North Yorkshire totally frozen over.

Some exciting model watching these next few days.

Not being picky but I swear the models had the cold pattern in 2010 nailed down weeks before, it's one of the only cold spells I've seen where the models have a very good handle on things at such long range.

i don't see anything like that severity from this, REALISTICALLY we need perfect sypnotics to get a SEVERE cold spell out of this and not just a cold snap.

Edited January 2, 2018 by Weathizard

[frosty ground]

So unless you get a Jet Profile like this you can forget about the Cold backing West.

[Chesil View]

Just now, frosty ground said:

But the Jet is Split on the GFS

 yes but even in split jet situations its bias is to put more energy into the northern arm thats why it so often backtracks towards other models in Scandi high set ups

[Banbury]

9 minutes ago, Danny* said:

The GFS doing what it always does and blasting blocking away as if it's not even there, it wont develop like that.

Whether the energy in the Atlantic goes under the block or not as per GEM/ECM is another matter, but the Atlantic certainly wont push in like the GFS has it, too progressive as usual. 

Good to see GEM sticking to it's guns, lets hope the ECM does the same this evening. UKMO 12z not bad either, closer to the ECM at 144 than it is to the GFS.

I agree and the Met update doesn’t suggest that . GEM hasn’t wavered one bit with this ......interesting, be so funny if it trumped them all

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

I must being seeing different charts? It warms up because the winds are not easterly, they veer around to almost southerly! 

That’s right but southerly winds for SE Europe drag up warmer air which curve easterly towards us for a time.

Edited January 2, 2018 by Daniel*

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There's an even worse danger, the GFS 12z is about to bring in a 'warm' at surface and aloft Westerly.

That would follow on from the consensus of the 0z GEFS, Feb

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

 yes but even in split jet situations its bias is to put more energy into the northern arm thats why it so often backtracks towards other models in Scandi high set ups

No issue with energy in the Northern Arm, its about how that Arm behaves and if you can get it curving around a high,

i would suggest this high being forcast is too weak for that to happen, and the ECM and GEM will move towards the GFS as the GFS moves towards the ECM.

Edited January 2, 2018 by frosty ground

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The Winds are from the south, hence the warm uppers, Plus the Foehn effect of the Air passing over he Alps. perfectly normal for with the Wind Direction.

 Southerly winds from Africa
 Still from a southerly direction. 

Perfectly Normal, a;ways has been always will be uless Africa and the Med freeze over,

And HP & Southerly breeze over Greece for a change, The LP over Spain needs to shift in that direction, ideally over Central/Northern Italy.

[frosty ground]

This is the GEM Ensembles, which suggest to me that the Op is not really supported

And further south (London)

Edited January 2, 2018 by frosty ground

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There's an even worse danger, the GFS 12z is about to bring in a 'warm' at surface and aloft Westerly.

Indeed it does brings in a very mild southwesterly from Azores by day 10 I wouldn’t blame those who wrote off the remainder for January if that verified. Good thing there’s so much water to go under the bridge.. 

[Chesil View]

Just now, frosty ground said:

No issue with energy in the Northern Arm, its about how that Arm behaves and if you can get it curving around a high,

i would suggest this high being forcase is to weak for that to happen, and the ECM and GEM will move towards the GFS as the GFS moves towards the ECM.

In which case it will come down to which model moves most towards the others experience suggest it will be the gfs which does the most moving.

[mulzy]

Is there any where we can see the output from MOGREPS?  Last I heard the Met Office is a public institution that you and I finance!

Edited January 2, 2018 by mulzy