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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes karlos the 144 was better than i expected :)

Be interesting to see GEM at 144- i dont think ukmo is anywhere near as good unfortunatley..

Looks like the initial Easterly won't amount to much in my area at least, but if we get a subsequent split jet with enough energy South, then the eventual follow-up could be a stonker (best guess somewhere around Jan 13th/14th)

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEM the pick again - a stonker.

Colder too

gem-1-198.png?00

gem-1-192.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes karlos the 144 was better than i expected :)

Be interesting to see GEM at 144- i dont think ukmo is anywhere near as good unfortunatley..

Not dissimilar.

IMG_0280.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Before anyone looses their minds over the UKMO T144 it should be noted that it is still trying to send energy under and up against the block compared to the GFS which by this point has the block receding into Europe. GFS seems to be the most progressive (massive shocker)

I would say UKMO is mid-ground solution at this point in time.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

gfs-0-144.png?12

GEM Best case.

ECM is 2nd bite to a longer lasting spell

UKMO is perhaps 2nd bite with a larger risk involved than ECM

GFS has it's sledgehammer equipped and is pounding that block back into Europe.

 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So glad I didn't make one of my rash 'it's going to snow this weekend' predictions.:D

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

So the gfs which has known northern arm of jet bias has the high less north than the other models surprise surprise

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

So the gfs which has known northern arm of jet bias has the high less north than the other models surprise surprise

But the Jet is Split on the GFS
gfs-5-144.png?12

Edited by frosty ground
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

So as the GFS ignites for another run 

if you looking for more sustained deeper cold then the shortwave @108 going through Scandi needs to come SW not SE

503C659F-4023-4862-8922-FDF3BA6C6D09.thumb.png.7327c515e69a75fdb1432a95be04d35c.png

New years resolution Steve ?..Your  phones nearly charged ? Or more runs needed to confirm ?

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I know 850s are not everything but we are importing some quite high 850s on gfs- cold at the surface and sun tan cream 2000feet up?:)

It's actually quite remarkable how far N the warm uppers spread into Europe given the time of year. 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Looking for the GEM to be more accurate than the GFS is like hoping for West Brom to take points off Arsenal.

Yes it can actually happen but it might need the ECM as a referee! :)

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

So as the GFS ignites for another run 

if you looking for more sustained deeper cold then the shortwave @108 going through Scandi needs to come SW not SE

503C659F-4023-4862-8922-FDF3BA6C6D09.thumb.png.7327c515e69a75fdb1432a95be04d35c.png

But that's not going to happen as the Jet will simply push it South East, the Jet is not curving back (at least on the GFS)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
10 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

That winning line is along way off yet......Hope your bloody right though :)

Edit...Don't you mean the GEM because that's the chart you showing ?

Yes I got my posts a bit mixed up.:doh:

I was just thinking that if ECM sticks to its guns like the GEM has then its going to be a memorably victory for the models. They will be the champs alright.

UKMO says no to extending the cold spell, out at T144 though anything can happen of course, the high has not actually sunk yet on that chart.

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

It is enough to drive you to drink.....CHEERS Ill have a GEM Mare with tonic

gem-0-228.png?12

gem-1-234.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 minute ago, snowray said:

Yes I got my posts a bit mixed up.:doh:

I was just thinking that if ECM sticks to its guns like the GEM has then its going to be a memorably victory for the models. They will be the champs alright.

UKMO says no to extending the cold spell, out at T144 though anything can happen yet of course, the high has not actually sunk yet on that chart.

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Very uncertain what would happen from there.  Can’t see the Atlantic breaking through quickly though...

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, warrenb said:

I just can't make head nor tail of where the GFS is going. It has a high that is basically vertical

Agree -gfs is of mass confusion...

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, frosty ground said:

Is it? :cc_confused:

Well yes. We're at the point of peak land mass cooling and at the time where European cold pools can develop in situ. To see virtually the whole of mainland Europe in positive uppers in early January is remarkable to me. 

Though I guess a lot of us are now seeing things like this as the norm! 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I know 850s are not everything but we are importing some quite high 850s on gfs- cold at the surface and sun tan cream 2000feet up?:)

With the gfs giving surface temperatures of 4-7c in the south one would struggle to even call it surface cold. The GFS transfers the high east so quickly the initial NE blast this coming weekend simply grinds to a halt across the Midlands before less cold air pushes in from the sputh east which through this period remains fairly mild.

Lets hope it is handling the split jet badly and we can get cold air more entrenched across Europe.

GEM superb as per the last few runs.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Very uncertain what would happen from there.  Can’t see the Atlantic breaking through quickly though...

Yes I make you right there. GFS way, way to progressive I'd say, in fact the 12z has been known to be the most progressive of runs but this is taking the proverbial.:laugh:

gfs-0-174.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Hands up of you hate GFS!!

Image result for HANDS UP GIF

Sorry mods sometimes you got to inject a little humour when things go...well...............wrong.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

UKMO run looks fine to me. Certainly looks more longevity for cold than GFS again.  Without full access to their data, possible split in the Atlantic flow on this chart, whereas GFS wants to send most of the energy over the top and basically sink any thoughts of a block to the NE. However, its jet profile not that particularly strong and not fully zonal as well.

C

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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ECMWF is very interesting. I understand it isn't the go to, but I believe these are early signs. Denies the atlantic entirely, and develops what looks like a merging Scandi and Greenland high?

Have a feeling a prolonged cold spell could follow after this weekend. Recall seeing the models countlessly deny the intense cold we experiend in 2010/2011, which left rivers and lakes up here in North Yorkshire totally frozen over.

Some exciting model watching these next few days.

Screenshot_20180102-161332.png

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