Model output discussion - into 2018

[carinthian]

3 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Well the weather to start the New Year is certainly not boring for many . Wind, rain gales , snow and very mild for some in parts  of Euroland apart from Scotland ( the new cold ). More snow here in the Eastern Alps and temp at -3c so the mildest air passed further to the north and east of us. Plenty of fresh snow also in the Italian Dolomites this weekend past. Now to the models, great winter charts at 144t from ECM and GEM ( chart below at 240T from GEM). Looks again like UKMO will build the high NE from its position at 144t also, which is a bit of a confidence boost.Then of course GFS , not really holding any sort of cold block for long and has been consistent with this modelling for several runs now. Lets hope for a major flip for its out put post 144t ( for us many cold lover anyway). Interesting fax chart on Saturday for you lot in the North of England , looks snowy along that slow moving front. Another great week of chart watching, especially for British Isles.

C

Strange looking run from 06 GFS run this morning, especially for period 144-240t . Pressure pattern looks wrong over NW Europe. Almost Col like synoptics for the whole of this period . Still has nothing to do with ECM/GEM output but looks like now going through default period and think 12z run will show a correction in the 144t-240t period. One thing  to note is the jet dives south on much of this run well to the west of the British Isles and keeps you lot on the colder side of the Polar Trough. But overall I would not take to much notice of this latest run. Watch the 12z for changes.

 C

[Polar Maritime]

So the GFS again stamping out a very cold end to the week as winds turn Easterly. Sub-zero frost possibly touching -14c in the Highlands and ice days for the UK as temps hover around freezing, With snow showers possible and a bitter wind chill. Winter proper on our doorstep with plenty of fine detail for the weekend yet to be ironed out.. 

 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is cold zonality in FI with a very cold north westerly towards the end probably burying NW Britain..

It can’t even get the earlier time frame correct,it’s backtracking already,so why are you  talking about it’s fl output.Thats probably even more incorrect.

[Daniel*]

I very much doubt the Met Office pay much attention, rather no attention to American model. 

 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

It can’t even get the earlier time frame correct,it’s backtracking already,so why are you  talking about it’s fl output.Thats probably even more incorrect.

The clues in the title of the thread

[offerman]

 Well I am looking forward to the upcoming two day cold spell Saturday into Sunday here in South West before turning milder on Monday according to GFS but if I can get some snow out of one of the two days or both that would be a bonus . 

[Northern Sky]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

It can’t even get the earlier time frame correct,it’s backtracking already,so why are you  talking about it’s fl output.Thats probably even more incorrect.

The latter frames of the GFS have been churning out cold zonality run after run for days now. I'd love it to be true because it could produce some exciting weather for my location but it's always restricted to low res and never gets any nearer.

Something to take note of however as something must be driving that recurring theme. Certainly better than the usual default to mild SWlys.

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

1 minute ago, offerman said:

 Well I am looking forward to the upcoming two day cold spell Saturday into Sunday here in South West before turning milder on Monday according to GFS but if I can get some snow out of one of the two days or both that would be a bonus . 

Same in South Wales but rain moving in off the Atlantic into very cold air is the best setup for snow in our areas, NE or E winds often mean dry, clear & cold weather both are better than rain & gales anyway! 

[Methuselah]

However fast or slow the Scandi block slips away, I gave up trying make sense of the 06Z at about this point: after which, the run could have gone off in any number of directions...?

Though, I suspect a return to some kind of 'zonality' will be the eventual outcome...When isn't it?

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

However fast or slow the Scandi block slips away, I gave up trying make sense of the 06Z at about this point: after which, the run could have gone off in any number of directions...?

Though, I suspect a return to some kind of 'zonality' will be the eventual outcome...When isn't it?

And that rain bumping into very cold air initially could bring a better chance of snow to western areas  

[TEITS]

What encourages me is even if the GFS is right (unlikely) we still see a cold outlook.

Seems despite the uncertainity the models are going to give us plenty to discuss and looks primed towards cold rather than mild. Lets be honest most of the fun is the thrill of the chase.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hi guys...

 No charts - as Knocker has shown them in the US thread...

But isn't all this dependent upon the 'cyclone' now being forecast for the NE of the USA for Thursday/Friday.

It depends upon how deep this becomes, weaker and it will move out into the Atlantic, Stronger and it is forecast to recurve back into the NE of the USA. Enabling the 'Bahamas' or as we call it the Azores to move in and take control of the North Atlantic before it moves into Scandy.

ECM takes the deeper option, GFS the weaker  form.

Can we not just listen to what happens in the US?

MIA

Edited January 2, 2018 by Midlands Ice Age

[comet]

Maybe it was the ukmo t144 chart that threw  me ( should have known better) but the small incremental changes from the 06z gfs run with the ridge developing further north and then again post t144 with a slowly improving and slightly more amplified heights over the pole it does appear as if the ECM may well be on the ball here. Really looking forward to the afternoon and evening runs, now that my concerns about the high sinking may have been unwarranted. Great stuff.

[frosty ground]

GFS Control Run is showing a correction West of the block also.

[carinthian]

32 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

So the GFS again stamping out a very cold end to the week as winds turn Easterly. Sub-zero frost possibly touching -14c in the Highlands and ice days for the UK as temps hover around freezing, With snow showers possible and a bitter wind chill. Winter proper on our doorstep with plenty of fine detail for the weekend yet to be ironed out.. 

 

 

 

You will be pleased to know PM that our Advanced Snow Forecasting Service shows 10cm of fresh snowfall in your location at 12noon Sat 6th Jan. The portal service providers for our resort use their own model and not GFS. The fine mesh model produces very accurate results in our location with-in 48 hour period, almost to door step accuracy. However, it also provides outer perimeter results for further a field and this is yours ! Hope it works out correctly, but only a guide out at this range. Also shows 25-30 cm in parts of Northern Pennines.

C

Edited January 2, 2018 by carinthian

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

You will be pleased to know PM that our Advanced Snow Forecasting Service shows 10cm of fresh snowfall in your location at 12noon Sat 6th Jan. The portal service providers for our resort use their own model and not GFS. The fine mesh model produces very accurate results in our location with-in 48 hour period, almost to door step accuracy. However, it also provides outer perimeter results for further a field and this is yours ! Hope it works out correctly, but only a guide out at this range. Also shows 25-30 cm in parts of Northern Pennines.

C

Carinthian does that model look more like the ecm and ukmo at the same time frame?

[Tim Bland]

Metoffice long range reads more like the GFS than ECM or GEM unfortunately. If I was in Northern England, Scotland or on High ground I would be hoping GFS is right with its cold Zonality. Which output you want Depends if you are after Mainly dry but bitterly cold or Marginal heavy snow events. My money is on a middle ground between GFS and ECM where the easterly lasts until midweek and the Atlantic comes back in end of the week. I’m hopeful for some transient snow though before cold zonalty sets in

[stewfox]

19 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Hi guys...

 No charts - as Knocker has shown them in the US thread...

But isn't all this dependent upon the 'cyclone' now being forecast for the NE of the USA for Thursday/Friday.

 

Yes picked that up re Knockers post in the 'short term thread'. would be interesting one to watch. I still prefer one thread as a man I don't like multi tasking 

[carinthian]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Carinthian does that model look more like the ecm and ukmo at the same time frame?

We have daily snow prediction forecasts. However, part of the service provides direct contact with a duty forecaster. I will try and get an in depth analysis from them later today and specify UK interests.  Usually they tend to side with ECM thinking but have their own forecasting model. Regarding GFS they tend to think GFS model picks up a trend better than most to end a certain weather pattern rather than evolve a pattern. So hopefully, ECM wins out on this one. Will get back with an update when I finally manage to get in touch with them , that's if they have turned up for work !

[ThamesStreamer]

23 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Hi guys...

 No charts - as Knocker has shown them in the US thread...

But isn't all this dependent upon the 'cyclone' now being forecast for the NE of the USA for Thursday/Friday.

It depends upon how deep this becomes, weaker and it will move out into the Atlantic, Stronger and it is forecast to recurve back into the NE of the USA. Enabling the 'Bahamas' or as we call it the Azores to move in and take control of the North Atlantic before it moves into Scandy.

ECM takes the deeper option, GFS the weaker  form.

Can we not just listen to what happens in the US?

MIA

Which scenario do we want?

[Ali1977]

There are only around 4/5 GEFS ENS that follow something akin to the ECM - not bad but was hoping for a bigger switch to get some confidence. Not sure what will happen during the next few runs, I’d have to still side more GFS but only as that’s what the METO seem to be leaning to at the minute. By day 12 we only have 1 ENS showing something glaring the continent !!!

Edited January 2, 2018 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

Can we just wait an hour for the updated meto to come out 

the forecast for next week said becoming milder in the west as the week progresses but uncertain as to timing  - would you predict anything different ???

[ThamesStreamer]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There are only around 4/5 GEFS ENS that follow something akin to the ECM - not bad but was hoping for a bigger switch to get some confidence. Not sure what will happen during the next few runs, I’d have to still side more GFS but only as that’s what the METO seem to be leaning to at the minute. By day 12 we only have 1 ENS showing something glaring the continent !!!

Why have so many people said that the METO is closer to the ECM then? :-/

[ArHu3]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There are only around 4/5 GEFS ENS that follow something akin to the ECM - not bad but was hoping for a bigger switch to get some confidence. Not sure what will happen during the next few runs, I’d have to still side more GFS but only as that’s what the METO seem to be leaning to at the minute. By day 12 we only have 1 ENS showing something glaring the continent !!!

In the dutch  plumes there is a big difference between the operational and control, where operational goes for east/northeast the control goes for west, south and southwest by day 8th, so hopefully this is an issue of the lower resolution of the gefs

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, ThamesStreamer said:

Why have so many people said that the METO is closer to the ECM then? :-/

As blue mentions above, breakdown from west but unsure if timing - no breakdown on the ECM is there!! Updated METO may change