Model output discussion - into 2018

[Dancerwithwings]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM finishes with a long fetch straight Easterly into the UK -temps around 0c...

Could draw in some very cold air from Russia eventually.

[Frosty.]

Seriously, after a run like that there is only one thing left to do..holy cow, quick, to the ensembles robin!!???

Edited January 1, 2018 by Frosty.

[Singularity]

Seemingly the counter-Nina tendencies are making themselves known in the model output for later next week. 

One has to be realistic though; the main easterly is still about a week out and it'd only take a relatively small adjustment back toward more of a GLAAM dive to make a mess of things. 

It has undeniably been a good turn of the year for trends though .

[northwestsnow]

Well the EC snow charts are a bit ridiculous with little or no lying snow south of Birmingham!!

Pennines and Scotland the big winners- strangely little lying snow east of the pennines.

I think thats rubbish personally with -8 uppers..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well the EC snow charts are a bit ridiculous with little or no lying snow south of Birmingham!!

Pennines and Scotland the big winners- strangely little lying snow east of the pennines.

I think thats rubbish personally with -8 uppers..

Way off! SE especially south east of London are best placed off this EC 12Z

[Tim Bland]

15 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

ECM looking fantastic for uk very cold and snow.  south east England looks to me it could get burried .

 

 

Just to add a bit of realism to the thread. 12z ECM has less than 1cm of snow for most away from Scotland and the North East. I wonder if this output takes into a account shower activity spreading in from the North Sea though? 

I much prefer GEM as the slider delivers for most around day 9-10 where as ECM has it going into Northern France. Still lots of time for changes though 

 

[Chesil View]

Fantastic Ecm tonight. Of course it won't look like that come the time.........................................because it will have upgraded even more. lol

[nytram43]

9 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Could draw in some very cold air from Russia eventually.

It's a balmy 1 deg C in Moscow at the moment and no sign of getting colder for the next five days.

[nick sussex]

13 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Seemingly the counter-Nina tendencies are making themselves known in the model output for later next week.

One has to be realistic though; the main easterly is still about a week out and it'd only take a relatively small adjustment back toward more of a GLAAM dive to make a mess of things.

It has undeniably been a good turn of the year for trends though .

NOAA seem to think the MJO will dampen down the normal atmospheric response to La Nina and think once it reaches the Indian Ocean it will have an impact on the pattern over the USA.

The phase 2 composites do look a reasonable match for the current NWP. I suppose its really what happens to the upstream troughing in terms of how much trough disruption we see.

PS that's off the last update I'm still waiting for the new one which is normally out on Mondays but not sure if it will come out seeing as its New Years Day.

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

I just want us to fast forward through the wet and windy cr*p and get to next weekend already!!..hope the upgrades continue, the Ecm 12z turns into lovely stuff.

[Dean E]

1 minute ago, nytram43 said:

It's a balmy 1 deg C in Moscow at the moment and no sign of getting colder for the next five days.

Any supporting charts for this?

Landmasses can freeze over in the matter of hours/days. So I wouldn't worry about one area being too warm right now.

[Frost HoIIow]

4 minutes ago, nytram43 said:

It's a balmy 1 deg C in Moscow at the moment and no sign of getting colder for the next five days.

Is that summer sun or knocker?

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Dean E said:

Any supporting charts for this?

Landmasses can freeze over in the matter of hours/days. So I wouldn't worry about one area being too warm right now.

YES.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/524901

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, nytram43 said:

It's a balmy 1 deg C in Moscow at the moment and no sign of getting colder for the next five days.

luckily it is due to be colder in 10 days, when it matters.... 

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Just to add a bit of realism to the thread. 12z ECM has less than 1cm of snow for most away from Scotland and the North East. I wonder if this output takes into a account shower activity spreading in from the North Sea though? 

I much prefer GEM as the slider delivers for most around day 9-10 where as ECM has it going into Northern France. Still lots of time for changes though 

 

All models are terrible at convective precipitation ECM is clearly not picking up on it, not until much closer to the time we’ll be able to assess how much and where is it concentrated. 

[claret047]

48 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Oh My , please , please Happen . Please . 

Hello Mark,

You wont be back at work if this materialises. I believe with that frigid airflow over a relatively warm North Sea we will be rewarded with a large dumping of snow. It certainly to my untutored eyes looks primed for it.

Kind Regards

Dave

[Man With Beard]

The EC op has jumped clusters this evening - the 00Z was like this morning's cluster 1, but the 12Z is more like this morning's cluster 3. This is happening a lot in a knife-edge situations I have found:

      

[Dean E]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

YES.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/524901

Thanks.

Again, won't take long for that forecast to change with temperatures nose diving (either one way or another) given Moscow's locale and the current model output.

Edited January 1, 2018 by Dean E

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

YES.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/524901

minus 9ºc in moscow by next week...

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

All models are terrible at convective precipitation ECM is clearly not picking up on it, not until much closer to the time we’ll be able to assess how much and where is it concentrated. 

Agreed...

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, nytram43 said:

It's a balmy 1 deg C in Moscow at the moment and no sign of getting colder for the next five days.

Talk about sticking a pin in it!

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

minus 9ºc in moscow by next week...

True but a) that's a forecast, b) most importantly, the upper air is more important as that's what we are trying to import to ignite the convection.

[phil nw.]

ECM if that verified would certainly prolong the cold.Even with the less cold uppers shown in the later frames a flow from the continent would keep the uk well below average.

Often with these Scandi.blocks the modeling of them changes as we go forward as the split of the jet becomes clearer so if we got as far as days 9 on with a similar pattern we could see a better orientation to advect colder uppers from further east,but i speculate here.

It looks fairly clear with the agreement amongst the op.runs that Friday on through the week end will get colder from the north as the low drops south and leaves us in that cold ne/e flow with the ridge to the north.

Early next week looks like the next period to focus on as the high eases east and the next low shows it's hand to the nw.This will test the resilience of any blocking.

Comparing gfs and ecm at T192-day 8

we can clearly see that the ecm run is undercutting the next Atlantic attack whereas gfs eventually pushes through sweeping away the high to the east.That's why i say if the ecm run proves correct then day 9 onwards could turn out even better.

So day 7 seems the key date,maybe even day 6 if things become more progressive -a look at the jet stream stamps at T192hrs

underlines the difficulty with a split jet,we can see the number of different outcomes possible on those.A little less energy going se and more  further north against the block then things look more like the later GFS(Atlantic wins this time).

Clearly we need the ecm to be have the right evolution beyond day 6 to prolong the cold spell.

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by phil nw.

[bobbydog]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

True but a) that's a forecast, b) most importantly, the upper air is more important as that's what we are trying to import to ignite the convection.

agreed. point being, it will get colder. also, if the EC is correct, the long draw will come from further away than moscow, which will consequently get colder still-

[Luke Best]

9 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

 

 

 

GFS spawns a Super Typhoon in the northern Atlantic.    Er, no!

(Edit - I've deleted phil nw's text to shorten my post.  For the record, I'm laughing at the GFS' output - not phil nw's excellent post.  Apologies if my post reads wrong & out of context...)

Edited January 1, 2018 by Luke Best