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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Why doesnt the CFS Just retire , its that awkward bloke at weddings who nobody seems to have invited and everyone wants to leave 

I agree. It's even less use than a bacon sarnie at a bar mitzva!:D

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, SteveB said:

That's the way it should be in Winter, Greece bathing in warmth rather than us!

Yes we are surely well overdue an old school type of January!

144z.:cold:

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, snowray said:

Yes we are surely well overdue an old school type of January!

144z.:cold:

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

Ay, Kent in feet of snow, snow limit probably around St Albans, snow moving SSW, from Lincolnshire area

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

ECM looking more like the GEM, so full marks to that model, if these charts come close to verifying of course. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Warm seas unstable airflow/-8 uppers-

PLEASE EC be on the ball here!!

You watch if this gets into the 48hour mark how much the models upgrade the snow showers off the north sea!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, Kent in feet of snow, snow limit probably around St Albans, snow moving SSW, from Lincolnshire area

Well you might be right but i'd suggest snow much more widely than that!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, mulzy said:

ECM day 6 is decent - just worried about the high sinking as per the 0z run...

Its a sensational run for the SE of England- it will still be bitter by tues..

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Things getting 'real' via ec 12..

Depth-of alingnment flagging..

The open to placement is on..850s screaming in...

ECM0-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM day 6 is decent - just worried about the high sinking as per the 0z run...

We have much more substantial low heights to our south compared to this mornings run.

ECM1-144.GIF?01-0 vs ECM1-168.GIF?01-12

The high should trasfer across the north of the country with a cold ENE flow across the south with winds falling light over Scotland and Northern England with harsh frosts.

Lets see how the easterly develops.

Day 7 - Pretty good

ECM1-168.GIF?01-0

850s of -8C still in the south though the amount of convection may become limited with rising heights. The incoming Atlantic low looks in a pretty good shape to undercut the high.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

ECM day 6 is decent - just worried about the high sinking as per the 0z run...

Probably need to see WAA a smidgen more vertical on western limb of the block to enable it to sustain. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Well you might be right but i'd suggest snow much more widely than that!

we need the high further NE, need a ENE or E flow, not NNE

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

:bomb:

2714C9BE-D84D-47EC-9AE4-FE7B68DAD4C2.thumb.png.cbdeb0915d1516a2d26ec543fcf3fb65.png

It's going to get mental in here:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Oh My , please , please Happen . Please . :cold:

9840D2E2-B755-4723-9197-BC91B2B5CF79.png

9082A460-29F2-4BBF-806D-3E96B6CF2AAF.jpeg

2A71DD37-BDC2-41F8-ABA3-FAF54D24C2A3.png

28050094-DDA3-4CDF-ABCB-694731F2805C.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, ShortWaveHell said:

At 168 the ecm goes towards the 00z mean  and doesn’t become a stupid outlier from the same suite 

EC is sensational this evening!!

I'm really happy for the brothers and sisters in the SE of England...(its looking really really good for you guys).

Now lets all hope and pray UKMO is still drunk !!!

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