Model output discussion - into 2018

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Shame it's such a cr*p model..only gets wheeled out when the so called better performing models don't look so good!

One wonders how the mighty NAVGEM and BOM models are panning out?

[Mark wheeler]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

One wonders how the mighty NAVGEM and BOM models are panning out?

6z

[Penrith Snow]

Some good looking charts considering this time last week we were looking at a New Year dominated by Bartletts!

But please Weather Gods no more Midland snow storms, my relatives in Birmingham have been gloating for weeks about the 5 (yes 5) snowfalls that they have had since early December, surely they can't have another one!

Andy

[tinybill]

sometning for the coldies

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

6z

In that case, Mark - I'll quote the Lone Ranger: 'Tonto, our work here is done'...Cue William Tell Overture!

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, tinybill said:

sometning for the coldies

Something for the mollusks in SE England. 

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by Daniel*

[nick sussex]

Its amazing just how these cold pools with Scandi highs jump around between outputs.

The morning UKMO goes from star at the buffet to the dregs left over after everyones snuffled the salmon!

The Moet et Chandon has been replaced by some cheap nasty sparkling wine which has gone flat.

If models were people they'd need a thick skin, todays Oscar winner becomes tomorrows has been vacationing on day time telly. So is the life of a weather model in the cut and thrust of NW. You're only as good as your last stellar cold run!

So morning hero cast aside , step aside for tonights GEM or GFS.

We await the ECM, day time telly star or Oscar nominee!

[bobbydog]

while we're all focused on the potential snowfall, don't forget to put the bins out on tuesday night.... 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Its amazing just how these cold pools with Scandi highs jump around between outputs.

The morning UKMO goes from star at the buffet to the dregs left over after everyones snuffled the salmon!

The Moet et Chandon has been replaced by some cheap nasty sparkling wine which has gone flat.

If models were people they'd need a thick skin, todays Oscar winner becomes tomorrows has been vacationing on day time telly. So is the life of a weather model in the cut and thrust of NW. You're only as good as your last stellar cold run!

So morning hero cast aside , step aside for tonights GEM or GFS.

We await the ECM, day time telly star or Oscar nominee!

Yes ukmo is a huge disappointment for me this evening/
maybe thats the reason for exeters disappointing update earlier..

By the time the colder uppers sweep south there is little precip around then to add insult to injury it looks like sinking the high ..

GFS/GEM/APREGE look really good tho..

Edited January 1, 2018 by northwestsnow

[high ground birmingham]

13 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Some good looking charts considering this time last week we were looking at a New Year dominated by Bartletts!

But please Weather Gods no more Midland snow storms, my relatives in Birmingham have been gloating for weeks about the 5 (yes 5) snowfalls that they have had since early December, surely they can't have another one!

Andy

Your're right. It has been an incredible December here for snowfall.

Regarding the models, surely that warm air being dragged up from the Meditteranean is a massive worry and I wouldn't bet against it coming off. It will rapidly cut off any cold flow before it reaches the South. 

[Mucka]

GEFS mean slowly dropping. (Central England)

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

while we're all focused on the potential snowfall, don't forget to put the bins out on tuesday night.... 

I just can't get excited about wind and rain, let's just fast forward to the potential cold stuff please!!

[Mokidugway]

5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

while we're all focused on the potential snowfall, don't forget to put the bins out on tuesday night.... 

It's looking rough through the channel and the Irish Sea coastal regions .

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes ukmo is a huge disappointment for me this evening/
maybe thats the reason for exeters disappointing update earlier..

By the time the colder uppers sweep south there is little precip around then to add insult to injury it looks like sinking the high ..

GFS/GEM/APREGE look really good tho..

It will probably change again in the morning!

That's always the issue for any Scandi high scenario chasing the cold pool into the UK.  We've seen a lot of changes this week so I doubt we've seen the last.

 

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes ukmo is a huge disappointment for me this evening/
maybe thats the reason for exeters disappointing update earlier..

But it hadn’t run at that point ???

exeters update merely reflects their modelling  - Scandi ridges are generally tough for models so things can easily change

most models now showing a decent easterly flow now - lets see what ecm makes of it 

[bobbydog]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I just can't get excited about wind and rain, let's just fast forward to the potential cold stuff please!!

oh, i'm not particularly excited about it frosty, it's just in case anyone misses it and wonders why their cat's inside-out...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I just can't get excited about wind and rain, let's just fast forward to the potential cold stuff please!!

too right Frosty, nothing more boring, if mild, then dry please

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

too right Frosty, nothing more boring, if mild, then dry please

not necessarily - if mild - like last night - thunder and lightning and hail lol

oh and looking good for Wales again - snow prospects for Saturday with a cold easterly

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by andymusic

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

oh, i'm not particularly excited about it frosty, it's just in case anyone misses it and wonders why their cat's inside-out...

A few less cats wouldn't be a bad thing, our garden would appreciate less mess!!

Really hope the upcoming cold shown in the models amounts to something significant in terms of potency and longevity.

Edited January 1, 2018 by Frosty.

[Allseasons-Si]

The period from the 6th is growing in confidence now for the poss easterly at just 120 hrs out from the gefs 12z stamps

a look at the de-built over the last few days shows the marked trend from the 6th of the winds turning easterly,the last one is from this morning and look at the trend,i have circled in black where most of the easterly ens are,there are a few that stay in that similar direction afterwoods and it will be interesting to see tonights later on.

a look at pressure rises to our NE towards the 9th

gefs 192 stamps,Olso sea level pressure 06z going for a cluster of 1030-1040mb there

gefs mean at 192,not too shabby is it

Edited January 1, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Summer Sun]

A cold spell looks a pretty good bet but it might not be much more than a few days

[karyo]

Happy new year!

I just properly caught up with the models due to an all nighter. 

Things look more promising now than they did this time yesterday. The only thorn so far is the 12Z UKMO which is a downgrade compared with the 0z output but it is worth noting that the same thing happened yesterday. Overall, the 12z UKMO is still better than yesterday's 12 z which was pretty horrible.

Even taking the best output, I don't think this easterly/northeasterly will be anything long lasting. It will be a nice break from the wind and rain though and with a bit of luck it may offer some breakdown snow when the Atlantic returns next week.

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

gefs mean at 192,not too shabby is it

 

Its not, it is so close to giving a blizzard and massively extending the cold spell, however, it just cant seem to go that extra mile so that theres a battleground the right side of marginal and a whole load more flatliners on the graph right until the end of the run, all we need is a bit more elongation and a dig further south, still though, even a mean ensemble isn't reliable at that range at the moment and the trend is more amplification with each run (albeit minute incremental) so theres still 2-3 days of potential upgrades before we are firmly in operational territory.

Edited January 1, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A cold spell looks a pretty good bet but it might not be much more than a few days

Looks like the op was another Mild outlier for London - much slower in getting the colder air south.

UKMO is niggling at me,i do hope EC doesn't follow it..

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A cold spell looks a pretty good bet but it might not be much more than a few days

I think a lot depends on how low heights set up to the south. Even if the deeper cold lifts out its whether that Med air gets into the circulation. The UK could lose the colder uppers but an east/se sourced flow could still keep the surface cold.