Model output discussion - into 2018

[Man With Beard]

Clusters report: at T192, we have about 55% of members going for a more robust high to the N/NE (clusters 2/3, down from 75% yesterday), and the other 45% going for a weaker, sinking Scandi/Sceuro high (cluster 1 like the op). So slightly down from yesterday. In such circumstances when the odds are close, it is common to see the op run flirting between the two options. Quite possible it will revert to the stronger Scandi high tonight. Of course even if this morning's op is right, the flow remains amplified and northerlies could still follow shortly after.

A point I thought about yesterday - pattern changes sometimes "fail" at the first attempt, but then are followed by further attempts shortly after. Worth bearing in mind here I feel.

[winterof79]

 

Good call that Steve M 

HNY to you all.

 

I love it when you guys start squabbling over who will miss out etc as it usually means someone/somewhere is going to get plastered.....again

[Purga]

The GEFS 6z suite has moved considerably towards a decent old style easterly, there are plenty of members now showing a discrete high at 168 without the jet pushing it away to the SE. Some of them now have a (weak) upper trough caught up in the easterly flow which would give a good snow event to many in the south as well.

PTB 1 is a good example

.

Suite below

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, Purga said:

The GEFS 6z suite has moved considerably towards a decent old style easterly, there are plenty of members now showing a discrete high at 168 without the jet pushing it away to the SE. Some of them now have a (weak) upper trough caught up in the easterly flow which would give a good snow event to many in the south as well.

PTB 1 is a good example

.

Suite below

 

The Suite is 24 hours out of date

[Purga]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The Suite is 24 hours out of date

Apologies SS - 'cache' prob

Current (better) suite below

 

[Man With Beard]

So where is this going...? 

I usuallyy hate fence sitting (as it's an easy place from which to sit and criticise others who have a go ) - but I concede I have to. My experience tells me that with Greenland Highs and Scandi highs, the whole battle for the models is getting them started. They are so easily curtailed at short notice - in this case, the Atlantic could tilt just slightly positive, or the Euro trough could sink too fast (to me this is the real danger this time). If the UKMO can show me a Scandi High at T120, I'll start my climb off the fence - no amount of clusters are going to do it for me, nor one or two wonky op runs.

But once the Scandi High actually goes up, I actually think the big picture gets easier for a while. Then it's all about the "will it won't it" of disturbances clipping the UK from the west or south.

However that's too far ahead for me, so I'm going to get a nice duvet and pillow for my fence top and camp out here another day, if that's ok

[Dennis]

maybe GEM is the chart this winterseason

[Frosty.]

Much colder weather is seemingly on the way according to the latest models..I love saying that, makes a real change from the abysmal mild winters us coldies have endured in recent years!!!!..just enjoy the fact that we have a more level playing field and mild mush isn't dominating as per usual. Happy New Year to all my fellow coldies.

[northwestsnow]

I suspect ukmo 168 would be bitterly cold and snow showers moving into SE England..

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Much colder weather is seemingly on the way according to the latest models..I love saying that, makes a real change from the abysmal mild winters us coldies have endured in recent years!!!!..just enjoy the fact that we have a more level playing field and mild mush isn't dominating as per usual. Happy New Year to all my fellow coldies.

Aye, things are really on the up...I hope! Convective snow is 'on the cards' for parts of Eastern England even...

Happy New Year to you all...And my apologies to Tight Isobar for my comments on Saturday evening. They were entirely uncalled for.

[winterof79]

10 minutes ago, Dennis said:

maybe GEM is the chart this winterseason

Yes it has been a while 

And it just kept coming

Amazing beasts those blocking/deflecting  highs

Edited January 1, 2018 by winterof79

[northwestsnow]

BTW, 6Z was one of the milder options in the period 6th-1oth-

Im confident of upgrades come 12z...'

And i do love a good upgrade!!

[stratty]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I suspect ukmo 168 would be bitterly cold and snow showers moving into SE England..

..........too early to mention the Thames Streamer?! 

[northwestsnow]

FWIW the bbc monthly now talking of very cold weather for the UK and potential for 'significan' snowfall.

An absolutely fascinating period of model watching!!

Even if we see a breakdown i suspect PM attacks will follow in its wake..

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, stratty said:

..........too early to mention the Thames Streamer?! 

I think that statement is banned from this thread lol.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I think that statement is banned from this thread lol.

Nope, thats slider lol.

In all seriousness i dont have the jealousy gene- i'm happy for as many as pos to see snow..

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

In all seriousness i dont have the jealousy gene- i'm happy for as many as pos to see snow..

Here here, I salute your lack of imby'ism..wish there were more like you with that attitude!

Edited January 1, 2018 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Here here, I salute your lack of imby'ism..wish there were more like you with that attitude!

TBF regional threads are the best place for imby type posts..

Its only natural peeps will 'home in' on their regions if snow is on the menu.

Obviously envy is a natural human emotion but i think its only right and proper thats kept in check as in every UK cold spell their will be 'winners' and 'losers', thats the nature of our climate..

[captaincroc]

Can we all make a promise not to tell any friends, families or co-workers until it is absolutely set in stone! As we all know what happens if we do tell them..   I am refraining until mid-week at least!

[Banbury]

6 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Can we all make a promise not to tell any friends, families or co-workers until it is absolutely set in stone! As we all know what happens if we do tell them..   I am refraining until mid-week at least!

Too late ?

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Can we all make a promise not to tell any friends, families or co-workers until it is absolutely set in stone! As we all know what happens if we do tell them..   I am refraining until mid-week at least!

Good thinking, Batman...I still haven't shaken off the embarrassment from January 1974's failed easterly...

I think that Paul McCartney & Wings's Jet was at #2 in the Music Chart!

[lassie23]

10 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Can we all make a promise not to tell any friends, families or co-workers until it is absolutely set in stone! As we all know what happens if we do tell them..   I am refraining until mid-week at least!

lol too late, told everyone to bulk buy and empty the local supermarkets

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Good thinking, Batman...I still haven't shaken off the embarrassment from January 1974's failed easterly...

I think that Paul McCartney & Wings's Jet was at #2 in the Music Chart!

Light weight ,I have had many epic fails since that one.

[Dennis]

lets watch the progress

[Spah1]

A little disappointing Exeter talking about a breakdown from the West and milder air pushing through. 

Doesn’t instill still confidence of a prolonged cold spell from the East.