Model output discussion - into 2018

[SMU]

For those interested in means forecasting then ‘mean’ changes across timelines is a valuable tool to use as it shows how SUBTLE shifts over a run can manifest in important changes.

Its been well documented that when the GFS follows the euro ( UKMO today for instance ) it doesn’t usually jump ship but gradually transitions over a few runs- ( almost like it doesn’t want us to notice )

The 06z mean V 00z Mean 132/138 is a classic example of subtle shifts that unless scrutinised under the microscope get missed.

so side by side no change ??

* look at pressure over Iceland - up by 5 DAM

* look at the shape of the low over England because of the Extra pressure over Iceland the top end of the low is less circular ( almost squashed oval ) indicating more forcing southwards 

* look at the depth of the cold coming through Scandi - heights around 5-10 DAM which a better vortex lobe...

 

Summary- 06z Ensembles will edge to UKMO ..

Expect a good set...

[DIS1970]

Thanks for that, i don't think i'll post anything again, as finding the correct words is difficult, so i think i will just watch from a distance. Been trying to recover for 10 years, and 3 from the op, so it's unlikely. Forget about that, this is a weather forum, so i won't interfere again.

Edited December 31, 2017 by DIS1970

[OfficialKevWX]

This 6z looks to be better for more cold to come after the initial ‘easterly’ 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, DIS1970 said:

Thanks for that, i don't think i'll post anything again, as finding the correct words is difficult, so i think i will just watch from a distance. 

Very best wishes in your recovery

Some things are far more important than the weather!

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Thanks for that, i don't think i'll post anything again, as finding the correct words is difficult, so i think i will just watch from a distance. 

Nooooo keep posting its good to interact 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

For those interested in means forecasting then ‘mean’ changes across timelines is a valuable tool to use as it shows how SUBTLE shifts over a run can manifest in important changes.

Its been well documented that when the GFS follows the euro ( UKMO today for instance ) it doesn’t usually jump ship but gradually transitions over a few runs- ( almost like it doesn’t want us to notice )

The 06z mean V 00z Mean 132/138 is a classic example of subtle shifts that unless scrutinised under the microscope get missed.

so side by side no change ??

* look at pressure over Iceland - up by 5 DAM

* look at the shape of the low over England because of the Extra pressure over Iceland the top end of the low is less circular ( almost squashed oval ) indicating more forcing southwards 

* look at the depth of the cold coming through Scandi - heights around 5-10 DAM which a better vortex lobe...

 

Summary- 06z Ensembles will edge to UKMO ..

Expect a good set...

Hmmmmm- hope your right steve but im not convinced.

They be out soon..

[Banbury]

GFS control doesn’t keep an Easterly for long.  It rushes in a chilly NWly 

[Banbury]

Certainly some cold options in the ENS including a couple of cracking Easterlies

[comet]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Continental europe has a tendancy to quickly go 'cold/deep cold.(this time of year)

Thats exactly why chewing on modeled upper air temps, and cold pooling at this range is all very much speculative.

The overall signal remains very possitive in terms of potential cold..

And dont be suprised at-all to begin the note of deeper 850s showing up as things progress!!!

 

Yes I am very well aware of that, just commenting on the op runs and what they are showing not what they may or may not show in a few days time.

[comet]

15 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Thanks for that, i don't think i'll post anything again, as finding the correct words is difficult, so i think i will just watch from a distance. Been trying to recover for 10 years, and 3 from the op, so it's unlikely. Forget about that, this is a weather forum, so i won't interfere again.

There was nothing at all wrong with your post. I knew exactly what you were referring to as I suspect many other posters did. Some on here just like to be pedantic.

[offerman]

Most peculiar 

 

i just been blocked by  BOT on this thread.

i only asked why IF doesn’t post in here any more in answer to an earlier poster who said it was s Shame he didn’t .

Dont understabd why I blocked. Fair question and I didn’t use any foul language!! 

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Keep seeing the term battleground pop up on here whilst I know what this is .. Atlantic trying to Move into cold air ... has there been any years where a battleground has led to a sustained event ? Of the snow / cold persuasion 

Feb 1996.

 

historical event. There’s many more - Jan 82, March 13 & so on

 

[Weather-history]

13 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Keep seeing the term battleground pop up on here whilst I know what this is .. Atlantic trying to Move into cold air ... has there been any years where a battleground has led to a sustained event ? Of the snow / cold persuasion 

Late January 1940, one of the great snowstorms and ice storms to the south of UK

[tight isobar]

33 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

For those interested in means forecasting then ‘mean’ changes across timelines is a valuable tool to use as it shows how SUBTLE shifts over a run can manifest in important changes.

Its been well documented that when the GFS follows the euro ( UKMO today for instance ) it doesn’t usually jump ship but gradually transitions over a few runs- ( almost like it doesn’t want us to notice )

The 06z mean V 00z Mean 132/138 is a classic example of subtle shifts that unless scrutinised under the microscope get missed.

so side by side no change ??

* look at pressure over Iceland - up by 5 DAM

* look at the shape of the low over England because of the Extra pressure over Iceland the top end of the low is less circular ( almost squashed oval ) indicating more forcing southwards 

* look at the depth of the cold coming through Scandi - heights around 5-10 DAM which a better vortex lobe...

 

Summary- 06z Ensembles will edge to UKMO ..

Expect a good set...

Heres the london 6z ...

Sorry a tad blurry...'screenshot'

[northwestsnow]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Heres the london 6z ...

Sorry a tad blurry...'screenshot'

Look a bit lame to me hand on heart.

Need one of the colder members to gather support if its going to be anything other than well, not much.

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Dont like 6Z steve-

Its noticeably less cold fri/sat as the colder uppers take an age to move south..

Well I suppose you could just bank on northwesterly flow instead.

Anyway smile on my face seeing the Scandinavia heights building nicely.

I've seen weaker blocks cause absolute chaos.

 

[Rollo]

I think there we a few back in 1947 at the start of that infamous Jan / Feb. Cannot think of many or any since.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Weather toad said:

I think it’s peep peeps brother from a boy from space. If your old enough to remember that. 

Just to young but wouldn't be interested in stuff like that - I was 3 in 1980.

[John88B]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Late January 1940, one of the great snowstorms and ice storms to the south of UK

The Jan 82 battleground situation created a two day blizzard over S Wales, the South West and West country with deep, deep snow and intense cold for days after.

[Weather-history]

Why are people looking at FI with this scenario? It is clear that it is an evolving situation. Take a look at the 06z runs over the last few days for the same timeframe.

[tight isobar]

Just now, Weather-history said:

Why are people looking at FI with this scenario? It is clear that it is an evolving situation. Take a look at the 06z runs over the last few days for the same timeframe.

Exactly...evolving!!!

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, DIS1970 said:

Sorry, for that quote , it's just that i am recovering from a brain tumour, so my memory and typing speed is very poor, so again sorry, i'll try to put in better quality sentences in future.

Sorry you've been ill but there was nothing wrong with the way you phrased your post. you were probably posting what quite a few were thinking.  Point being that nothing particularly wintry has even appeared yet so those disappointed were probably taking too much notice of the wrong posts - again! 

Btw - not a good extended gefs for coldies. Worst I've seen for a fair while for anyone wanting a decent wintry outbreak. If could be that changes to the pattern pre day 8 make everything post day 8 fairly redundant- let's hope so! 

Edited December 31, 2017 by bluearmy

[offerman]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Sorry you've been ill but there was nothing wrong with the way you phrased your post. you were probably posting what quite a few were thinking.  Point being that nothing particularly wintry has even appeared yet so those disappointed were probably taking too much notice of the wrong posts - again! 

Btw - not a good gefs for coldies. Worst I've seen for a fair while for anyone wanting a decent wintry outbreak. If could be that changes to the pattern pre day 8 make everything post day 8 fairly redundant- let's hope so! 

Your first paragraph was spot on , it’s what I’ve been banging on about too. Too many rose tinted glasses posts yet no strong cold charts and what were originally were too far out and yet again all gets watered down . 

 

 

[johnholmes]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Why are people looking at FI with this scenario? It is clear that it is an evolving situation. Take a look at the 06z runs over the last few days for the same timeframe.

Very good post illustrating what I suggest to folk, stick with one model and see how it changes or not rather than watching every frame of every run WHEN in distant time scales, say beyond T+144h. Below that the fine to compare each model as they slowly zero in on T+00.

It does work, honest.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Sorry you've been ill but there was nothing wrong with the way you phrased your post. you were probably posting what quite a few were thinking.  Point being that nothing particularly wintry has even appeared yet so those disappointed were probably taking too much notice of the wrong posts - again! 

Btw - not a good gefs for coldies. Worst I've seen for a fair while for anyone wanting a decent wintry outbreak. If could be that changes to the pattern pre day 8 make everything post day 8 fairly redundant- let's hope so! 

Yep- i said about the same Blue.

I assume you are referencing GEFS?