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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Oh for heavens sake who said they shouldn’t be commented on. And isn’t your last sentence a tad overdramatic. We’re not asking you to join the Moonies or some dreadful cult! :D

Good grief. You of all people talking about being over dramatic. That's irony redundant.

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

Blimey..... whats going on lol...

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE... 

 

MAY 2018 bring you lots of cold SNOWY  weather..   ?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Okay . Fine let’s move on before the Mods step in.

Nick, I côuldnt understand why people were criticising the ec run as if it was wrong or had made some wierd evolution that was implausible. Surely the point of the thread is to discuss the output. You can say you don't like the evolution from a personal perspective of cold/mild etc but you can't criticise it without providing evidence as to why. 

At the moment the upstream surge of the northern arm is too strong for any ridge to hold - his the jet splits ne/se against it is the issue. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

ECM looks like a dry signal to me, perhaps a few showers along the E/SE but nothing significant, GFS would have more moisture around but doesn't get anywhere near as cold as the ECM, GEM is stunning, best of both worlds.

Short lived Easterly looks likely to me, it's just whether it'll be dry/cold enough for snow that remains to be seen.

(It'll be windy in the North and West at some point too, for what it's worth)

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

From a brief flick, I estimate 75% of ECM ensembles have high pressure close to or over Scandi on the 7th January. Almost all see a brief easterly attempt on the UK. Durations of the easterly vary greatly!!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

AO forecast is interesting it will go negative convincingly so into infancy of 2018 it has been a precursor to cold snaps/spells this winter, possibly recovering thereafter but no strong desire to take it positive.  

383DD58A-7ED2-4AB6-8CF4-A5781B471853.thumb.jpeg.57ccd313383b024f18674cb6d721b234.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
8 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

Blimey..... whats going on lol...

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE... 

 

MAY 2018 bring you lots of cold SNOWY  weather..   ?

At this rate, it will be May 2018 before we get cold and snow again. :rofl:

Anyway... GEM currently holding fast as with earlier runs. ECM having a wobble (from past experiences, normally does in the 6-10 day frame), it's either on to something or go off its head.

GFS is next!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

From a brief flick, I estimate 75% of ECM ensembles have high pressure close to or over Scandi on the 7th January.

That's great news, hopefully a recurring theme for the rest of this winter:drinks::cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

Very interesting model  watching over next few days it really does look set tune cold end next week for how long we don't no yet all eyes to north east for cold.. even Darren Bett is jumping on board with a easterly flow...

IMG_0277.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd
  • Location: Pontypridd
29 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Not everyone (in fact, very, very few) in here has the interest of viewing the models "to work out whats going to happen" from the same scientific point of view. Many of us just want snow, many of us just want to watch the charts evolve as a cold spell approaches. 

Rain is something we see all year round, gets a little boring watching the models to see when a bit of rain and wind is going to move in.

 

Rain is something we see all year round, gets a little boring watching the models to see when a bit of rain and wind is going to move in.

Not if you're going to be directly under a 'bit of rain and wind' and suffered the devastation that flooding can cause. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nick, I côuldnt understand why people were criticising the ec run as if it was wrong or had made some wierd evolution that was implausible. Surely the point of the thread is to discuss the output. You can say you don't like the evolution from a personal perspective of cold/mild etc but you can't criticise it without providing evidence as to why. 

At the moment the upstream surge of the northern arm is too strong for any ridge to hold - his the jet splits ne/se against it is the issue. 

At the moment, perhaps..

I suspect the det is an other milder run in its suite tho..

EC mean at 168 looks wintry at 168 :)

and cold at 192..

And post day 10 i feel the jet will sink back into Europe at allow PM incursions..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Still a fascinating period coming up with the polar jet wavering across the UK.The cold air looks like it is never going to be far away from Scotland through the coming week.

Next week end looks a tricky period to resolve as energy is split off the Atlantic as it comes up against the modest wedge of heights further north.

Currently it looks like the northern arm of the jet will eventually hold sway but as the gef stamps show by day 8 it is a close run thing.

viewimage.pbx?type=ens;date=20171230;tim

By day 10 ECM mean in line with the it's Op. run as the Atlantic looks too strong this time. 

EDH1-240.GIF?30-0

The persistence of that Canadian vortex is the main driver and it still looks like further incursions of polar maritime air from the nw is the more likely rather than any Scandi.high in week 2 at the moment. 

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nick, I côuldnt understand why people were criticising the ec run as if it was wrong or had made some wierd evolution that was implausible. Surely the point of the thread is to discuss the output. You can say you don't like the evolution from a personal perspective of cold/mild etc but you can't criticise it without providing evidence as to why. 

At the moment the upstream surge of the northern arm is too strong for any ridge to hold - his the jet splits ne/se against it is the issue. 

I didn’t say it was wrong I just didn’t like it later on. The ensembles show there’s still a chance low heights will extend a little further east to the south .

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
2 hours ago, knocker said:

Before we go down that route again I wasn't attempting to tell people what to post merely that I find it very odd that on a weather forum severe gales and heavy rain can be ignored in what is a model discussion thread. Perhaps a better name would be the cold and snow chasing thread, Anyway I'll leave it there.

Strong winds out at sea and heavy rain over western hills . I do hear the local residents are seeking shelter .

Supporting charts attached 

 

ukgust.pngNetweather GFS Image

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

From a brief flick, I estimate 75% of ECM ensembles have high pressure close to or over Scandi on the 7th January. Almost all see a brief easterly attempt on the UK. Durations of the easterly vary greatly!!

I don’t know why there is an air of despondency from coldies. For the first time this winter we’re seeing support for HLB certaintly not epic blocking, well it ain’t boring MLB hopefully it isn’t a short lasting easterly but an easterly is all but assured. We’re the closest we’ve been to a proper cold spell this winter, some of you take a breather! 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

Still a fascinating period coming up with the polar jet wavering across the UK.The cold air looks like never been far away from Scotland and next week end looks a tricky period to resolve as energy is split off the Atlantic as it comes up against the modest wedge of heights further north.

Currently it looks like the northern arm of the jet will eventually hold sway but as the gef stamps show by day 8 it is a close run thing.

viewimage.pbx?type=ens;date=20171230;tim

By day 10 ECM mean in line with the it's Op. run as the Atlantic looks too strong this time. 

EDH1-240.GIF?30-0

The persistence of that Canadian vortex is the main driver and it still looks like further incursions of polar maritime air from the nw is the more likely rather than any Scandi.high in week 2 at the moment. 

I just posted about the mean at day 10- i think it looks ripe for PM incursions thereafter ...:)

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Whilst the ECM op is a PITA at 168-192 the 240 chart is a typical feature of Scandi Highs with the Atlantic jet hitting a brick wall & being sent Nothwards - no quick return to westerlies there...

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Whilst the ECM op is a PITA at 168-192 the 240 chart is a typical feature of Scandi Highs with the Atlantic jet hitting a brick wall & being sent Nothwards - no quick return to westerlies there...

Yup-

Wholeheartedly agree- 

I'm drawing a lot of positives from the NWP this evening- when we have heights to our N/NE, we are in the game !!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Again, i think the EC is offering genuine hints of a battleground situation after day 10- the block might not go down without a fight-

Darren Brett pointing to colder weather next weekend and rain and snow around, and then at the end suggesting an easterly...

Interesting!! Wonder if MOGREPS is seeing something nice!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Again, i think the EC is offering genuine hints of a battleground situation after day 10- the block might not go down without a fight-

Darren Brett pointing to colder weather next weekend and rain and snow around, and then at the end suggesting an easterly...

Interesting!! Wonder if MOGREPS is seeing something nice!!!

That's what I noted earlier looking very interesting to north east maybe upgrades to come..

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

just see  a  warning  fro  met office storm  heading winds  now be 80 mph  over  much of the  uk

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