Model output discussion - into 2018

[nick sussex]

Time for another of my Chinese proverbs . 

Not ever mission to space needs to go to Mars , a Moon landing is still good!

Not every cold snap/spell has to incorporate the Thames freezing over and severe cold we shouldn’t forget the last few winters which were dreadful for cold and snow .

In the UK you have to take any cold and snow out there even if it’s not another December  2010 redux.

Hopefully the UK can hit the jackpot at some point during the winter. 

Edited December 30, 2017 by nick sussex

[northwestsnow]

I might be wrong here but i suspect EC 168 brings a brief NE wind, it looks slack so i'm not entirely sure how much precip would be about but for N Britain it looks cold enough for snow to me..

[Matthew.]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Am i the only one who likes the EC?

I think its a lovely run with temps generally average or below (its Jan so average means cold)from 168 onwards - quite an upgrade from the 00z run.

Uppers getting into the -8 territory once again from next late Friday for more of the country so snow will be back for many

Edited December 30, 2017 by Matthew.

[chris55]

It's a fascinating pattern we find ourselves enjoying this winter thus far, although we have not seen any substantial blocking, we have seen numerous cold incursions, with some anonymously snowy scenes for a fair few. And the general flow has been absent of the long fetch southwesterly,  with the emphasis on a southerly jet and accompanying cool/cold conditions, with the odd wedge of northerly heights to aid the balance cool vs cold.

I get the impression many winters of the early/mid 80s panned out this way.

With this in mind I wouldn't bet against this potential 'transient' height rise to our north east actually delivering something more sustained than perhaps we have been accustomed to in the last few decades. 

Certainly makes for some interesting model viewing. 

 

 

 

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I might be wrong here but i suspect EC 168 brings a brief NE wind, it looks slack so i'm not entirely sure how much precip would be about but for N Britain it looks cold enough for snow to me..

Well you only have to look at the surface analysis for T168 that I posted to confirm that. Overall the temp is around average so the showers down the east coast are likely to be of rain.

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by knocker

[Froze were the Days]

26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Time for another of my Chinese proverbs . 

Not ever mission to space needs to go to Mars , a Moon landing is still good!

Not every cold snap/spell has to incorporate the Thames freezing over and severe cold we shouldn’t forget the last few winters which were dreadful for cold and snow .

In the UK you have to take any cold and snow out there even if it’s not another December  2010 redux.

Hopefully the UK can hit the jackpot at some point during the winter. 

Aaaahh glasshopper you speak with tongue that is not forked...

[bluearmy]

Criticism of the ec op is bizarre - irrelevant that it IS the best model with the best verification stats, it's 12z op is broadly in line with its eps anomoly output from the 00z suite (which is in reasonable agreement with the gefs).  I'm scratching my head reading back the previous couple pages  

[Scandinavian High.]

ECM as us in a easterly flow with chance of snow showers in the south east not a big freeze. But Cold enough for some snow I hope we see some upgrades with colder weather from north east or will we lose this trend in the coming days.. or are all models being progressive in pushing high away from north east as they tend to do..

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Criticism of the ec op is bizarre - irrelevant that it IS the best model with the best verification stats, it's 12z op is broadly in line with its eps anomoly output from the 00z suite (which is in reasonable agreement with the gefs).  I'm scratching my head reading back the previous couple pages  

I quite agree and what I find equally bizarre in a model discussion thread is no mention whatsoever of gales, possible severe and quite possible on more than one occasion with a fair whack of rain in western regions in what is a very unsettled run.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think its about what one hopes for, lots hope for cold, when it shows or comes one wants lots of snow and longevity with it.   

I think some of that will be well in it, but longevity being the weak point.....until the next one .

The potential set up coming (both timing and synopsis wise) is to me very encouraging indeed.

 

BFTP

Edited December 30, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nick sussex]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

I quite agree and what I find equally bizarre in a model discussion thread is no mention whatsoever of gales, possible severe and quite possible on more than one occasion with a fair whack of rain in western regions in what is a very unsettled run.

Why is it bizarre? You’ve been on here long enough to know the vast majority of members in winter are looking for weather that’s not bog standard winter fare in the UK.

Rain and gales are common , cold and snow isn’t .

It’s like in the summer folk are looking for heat and some also like thunderstorms . 

I think people are generally drawn to the extremes the weather can produce because of the UKs temperate climate .

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

54 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Am i the only one who likes the EC?

 

I like / love any model that shows cold and the Ecm 12z certainly shows our weather turning very cold towards the end of next week..it's all good as far as I'm concerned...hoping for upgrades in terms of longevity!!☺??????

[brabs69]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Right, so some of us are completely wasting our time posting in this thread in that case.

Well I'm sure I'm not alone in saying I read your analysis with great interest Knocker, I feel I've learnt alot from your posts, so please don't stop. 

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Right, so some of us are completely wasting our time posting in this thread in that case.

I don't think that's the case, but you know that most a chasing snow in here and that's why no comments ref anything else. It's good to have a non cold ramper in here , if you're talking about snow then we know it must be happening! ?, and of course you're one of the knowledgable writers amongst us!!

Edited December 30, 2017 by Ali1977

[knocker]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Why is it bizarre? You’ve been on here long enough to know the vast majority of members in winter are looking for weather that’s not big standard winter fare in the UK.

Rain and gales are common , cold and snow isn’t .

It’s like in the summer folk are looking for heat and some also like thunderstorms . 

I think people are generally drawn to the extremes the weather can produce because of the UKs temperate climate .

 

Then the thread title is incorrect. And it is not a case of bog standard it is a matter of attempting to get a handle on the current evolution of the models without being being nonsensically biased. If that leads to snow and ice fine, if not tough but what goes on in between should not just be ignored. Irrespective if the majority on here wish it to be.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GEM a beauty again....maybe it hasn’t been rolled out as things are looking pretty ok...

BFTP

[Chesil View]

19 minutes ago, knocker said:

I quite agree and what I find equally bizarre in a model discussion thread is no mention whatsoever of gales, possible severe and quite possible on more than one occasion with a fair whack of rain in western regions in what is a very unsettled run.

Perhaps Knocker it,s because they are ten a penny in your average UK winter.  Whereas deep cold and widespread snow are not. Especially in the south.  You are most certainly not wasting your time posting here because your knowledge and experience make your posts a superb honestly given analysis.  However at this time of year I and many others are looking for some genuinely wintry weather not just an extention of Autumnal rain and gales.

Edited December 30, 2017 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Met4Cast]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Then the thread title is incorrect. And it is not a case of bog standard it is a matter of attempting to get a handle on the current evolution of the models without being being nonsensically biased. If that leads to snow and ice fine, if not tough but what goes on in between should not just be ignored. Irrespective if the majority on here wish it to be.

Not everyone (in fact, very, very few) in here has the interest of viewing the models "to work out whats going to happen" from the same scientific point of view. Many of us just want snow, many of us just want to watch the charts evolve as a cold spell approaches. 

Rain is something we see all year round, gets a little boring watching the models to see when a bit of rain and wind is going to move in.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Then the thread title is incorrect. And it is not a case of bog standard it is a matter of attempting to get a handle on the current evolution of the models without being being nonsensically biased. If that leads to snow and ice fine, if not tough but what goes on in between should not just be ignored. Irrespective if the majority on here wish it to be.

Nonsensically biased would be people saying another Dec 2010 was  on the way when it wasn’t or overramping cold prospects which I haven’t seen.

It’s a free thread where people can highlight whatever they like as long as it’s based on the models and ensembles etc.

I personally choose not to highlight wind and rain unless it’s a very strong storm and something noteworthy . 

That’s my choice and you’re free to highlight what you want . I really don’t see the problem .

 

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Perhaps Knocker it,s because they are ten a penny in your average UK winter.  

That presuppose that the evolution of runs that do not produce the Holy grail are meteorologically speaking, of no interest and should not be commented on. I frankly want no part of that.

[chris55]

GEM 168, easterly wind picking up .

[Daniel*]

ECM op is definitely very progressive when you look at GEFS but that doesn’t make it wrong as such. The London ens are pretty decent, mean stays comfortably below 0C 850hPa all the way from 5th. 

Longevity is possible... if you compare 00z EC to 12z it’s day and night so much more twists to come, our most notable easterly cold spells although rare always make theirselves known at very short notice, seen it many times. Any heights to N/NE and the models tend to be overly progressive. 

A very nasty storm appears to be firming up Storm Dylan for the central belt seeing 70-80 mph gusts bad time of year for it anytime is really. A lot of interest is there whatever your fancy, 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

That presuppose that the evolution of runs that do not produce the Holy grail are meteorologically speaking, of no interest and should not be commented on. I frankly want no part of that.

Oh for heavens sake who said they shouldn’t be commented on. And isn’t your last sentence a tad overdramatic. We’re not asking you to join the Moonies or some dreadful cult! 

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Nonsensically biased would be people saying another Dec 2010 was  on the way when it wasn’t or overramping cold prospects which I haven’t seen.

It’s a free thread where people can highlight whatever they like as long as it’s based on the models and ensembles etc.

I personally choose not to highlight wind and rain unless it’s a very strong storm and something noteworthy . 

That’s my choice and you’re free to highlight what you want . I really don’t see the problem .

 

Before we go down that route again I wasn't attempting to tell people what to post merely that I find it very odd that on a weather forum severe gales and heavy rain can be ignored in what is a model discussion thread. Perhaps a better name would be the cold and snow chasing thread, Anyway I'll leave it there.

[nick sussex]

Just now, knocker said:

Before we go down that route again I wasn't attempting to tell people what to post merely that I find it very odd that on a weather forum severe gales and heavy rain can be ignored in what is a model discussion thread. Perhaps a better name would be the cold and snow chasing thread, Anyway I'll leave it there.

Okay . Fine let’s move on before the Mods step in.