Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[Mucka]

Hello everybody.

Been absent for some time with holiday then ill health so missed a lot of the fun.

Just skim read the last couple of pages and see the potential change to drier conditions in 2nd week of Jan has been duly noted.

Pressure rise close to or just East of UK is a growing signal so chance of an Easterly type flow setting up or if not at least enough of a pressure rise to create the slider scenario.

Been a good winter so far for snow and after a briefer milder blip that looks set to continue well into January at least, even if there is no prolonged cold spell yet in the forecast.

Belated Merry Xmas and Happy New Year all.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Might want to check the update date and time that's the reason I haven't posted it

Yes, I just assumed because someone gave the link that it had updated, I knew you would have posted it as and when.

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Maybe, or maybe not.

If we look at the blue area over N America temps are massively below average by maybe 10 / 12 degrees, whereas Moscow at the moment is actually above freezing against a normal max of around -6 to -9c. In fact the BBC site shows Moscow as above zero for 8 of the next 9 days with the max on the 9th day as 0c. Given that and the fact that the N American cold spell is expected to have longevity I think that chart is pretty nailed on regardless of what happens in weeks 3 and 4 (which nobody knows) simply because the departure from normal in weeks 1 and 2 are so extreme over much of Europe and NE America.

These charts always show a lot more red than blue though as the background warming continues (oops controversial). The problem if anything is that the base line for comparison (ie expected normal temps) is becoming rapidly outdated. 

 

 

 

I did say at the microlevel. Take a look at Sakhalin for instance as an example. 

[SMU]

36 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Here you go Steve:

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Cheers —

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM ensembles the op is a milder outlier for London for a time and the further east se you go the bigger the outlier it becomes suggesting the op has the low heights too far west allowing the milder Med flow into that region.

We really need the op to get with the programmer and stop this milder nonsense!

[tight isobar]

Torque friction- accumulating in angular momentum..is in part by now overiden, via momentum gain of topography!..

This being 'again' a teleconect that has /will not have little impact on our, pm oceanic; goverend' climatical range.

 

The mjo forcing/impactual begins a run into drive for 'indeed' that contiued -angular prognosis. And clumaticale infer now can 'surely' in part be disregarded; as mjo phasing, loops to impact.

Pacific forcing. Along with russian penn- warm thermos..continues to tug and pull; and have nw-euro/uk  in a contest of  indrive/or indeed /overdrive of sync.

But now the gain of the arguements via- geograohical/ meteorlogical is relaxing' and giving waves an ample punch as the pole is on the ropes.. mlb's would of usual be inpartial to us(uk)but the given stats' are swinging well in our favour.

'Further' with the mjo pex-and momentum in situ..its as ripe as it gets for morph of shallow, warming heights guto merge...so its completly feasibly evolutionary...for a continuation, of suitabke synoptics via mld AT blocks-configaring, into deep cold spillage to a quadrant; of nw europe....

And again i'll shout...operationals are the big boys atm..dragging there supporting data/format behind them!!!..

I dont by any outer torque ramifications for uk basis...other than butterfly effect to bigger land mass,...

La-nina issues are of small part also imo.

Oceanic imediate are of frontal..so again operatianal and ens for the part in question are the drivers...

 

Edited December 29, 2017 by tight isobar

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looking at the ECM ensembles the op is a milder outlier for London for a time and the further east se you go the bigger the outlier it becomes suggesting the op has the low heights too far west allowing the milder Med flow into that region.

We really need the op to get with the programmer and stop this milder nonsense!

In other words....IT'S GONNA SNOW!!!!! Alleluia, alleluia, alleluia...

[Duane S.]

Just caught up. A decent day of chart outputs by the looks of it. Not spectacular but not trending the 'wrong' way, which is the main thing. Nice that we are not talking about far FI here as well. The 5th/6th of January as the trigger date has been showing consistently now for quite a few days. That's a good sign.

I like that there remain some 'pragmatic' runs in the mix as well at this stage. Keeps us grounded. And also reflects the situation perfectly. On a knife edge. Could still go either way.

As in a block of sorts to the NE that brings the cold to our shores or the Atlantic wins through before the block has time to assert itself. Unfortunately there is also a third option here as well, the dreaded no mans land. Yuk.

Anyway, its great to have a ticket to the raffle at least.

Another exciting week of weather chart watching ahead though, that's for sure!

Although having been on holiday surrounded by snow for 2 weeks and hospitalised for one night as a result of the stuff, I should really have had enough of it, but not a chance of that! It makes me want it even more!! ?

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Has anyone got the Extended eps please (just a description will do), they've put the block on them on that weathermodels site - knew it wouldn't be long, they probably saw that every tom dick and Harry were posting them all over the internet - I did warn people - now we are back to begging BA and Mulzy or the pro's for updates.

[nick sussex]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Has anyone got the Extended eps please (just a description will do), they've put the block on them on that weathermodels site - knew it wouldn't be long, they probably saw that every tom dick and Harry were posting them all over the internet - I did warn people - now we are back to begging BA and Mulzy or the pro's for updates.

Do you mean upto 15 days or longer Feb? 

What I meant was do you want each members synoptics  like in the old postage stamps we used to have access to?

Edited December 29, 2017 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Has anyone got the Extended eps please (just a description will do), they've put the block on them on that weathermodels site - knew it wouldn't be long, they probably saw that every tom dick and Harry were posting them all over the internet - I did warn people - now we are back to begging BA and Mulzy or the pro's for updates.

if you saw the 00z then rinse and repeat

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Do you mean upto 15 days or longer Feb? 

 

Yes not the monthly EC46, just the regulation ECM ones the GEFS equivalent, the ones you later see on the London Graph, they've made this site https://weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/eps.php subscription now, you used to be able to get the mean (contours) and shaded (anomaly), plus I liked the Graphics as well, not quite up to Meteociel Standard but not bad. I think its the same site knocker uses.

 

[knocker]

 

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Has anyone got the Extended eps please (just a description will do), they've put the block on them on that weathermodels site - knew it wouldn't be long, they probably saw that every tom dick and Harry were posting them all over the internet - I did warn people - now we are back to begging BA and Mulzy or the pro's for updates.

The 10-15 mean anomaly is not much different to last evening. The key features are Alaskan ridge, north Canadian vortex with the negatively tilted trough Iceland/UK/southern Europe with some ridging eastern Europe>northern Scandinavia-Svalbard. Thus a strong westerly upper flow which splits west of the UK with one arm swinging NE and the other SE. So the problem that the det runs will need to sort is the tracking of systems running across the Atlantic. It will probably become a more straightforward westerly flow but far too early to be even slightly definitive.

[chris55]

37 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

 

Quotes 

"Torque friction- accumulating in angular momentum..

"This being 'again' a teleconect that has /will not have little impact on our, pm oceanic; goverend' climatical range.

"Pacific forcing. Along with russian penn- warm thermos..

"But now the gain of the arguements via- geograohical/ meteorlogical is relaxing' and giving waves

'"Further' with the mjo pex-and momentum in situ..

"I dont by any outer torque ramifications for uk basis...

"Oceanic imediate are of frontal..

 

????

 

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

The outlook into the new year is easily the most exciting for 8 years. 

Agreed, some of today's model output screams wintry potential from late next week onwards, hope it continues!..not looked at the models or been on here since xmas day but I think I chose a good time to return and I'm really encouraged as a coldie with the mid range..fingers crossed we can tap into some cold from the NE / E...soon!

Edited December 29, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Referring to my post above

Not hugely different to NOAA

Edited December 29, 2017 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

The 10-15 mean anomaly is not much different to last evening. The key features are Alaskan ridge, north Canadian vortex with the negatively tilted trough Iceland/UK/southern Europe with some ridging eastern Europe>northern Scandinavia-Svalbard. Thus a strong westerly upper flow which splits west of the UK with one arm swinging NE and the other SE. So the problem that the det runs will need to sort is the tracking of systems running across the Atlantic. It will probably become a more straightforward westerly flow but far too early to be even slightly definitive.

To be fair the clusters on the Overnight run suggested some sort of chance of a blocking feature but as already pointed out, it looked very transient, the main Snow chances are going to come when winds veer NW'erly with PM / sliders in the next 2 weeks.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, some of today's model output screams wintry potential from late next week onwards, hope it continues!..not looked at the models or been on here since xmas day but I think I chose a good time to return and I'm really encouraged as a coldie with the mid range..fingers crossed we can tap into some cold from the NE / E...soon!

Good God, Frosty...I've been promising my grandchildren a potentialman for five years...Maybe this time he'll get off the ground!

[northwestsnow]

Ec mean keeps it average mid term and colder than average long term tonight.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Good God, Frosty...I've been promising my grandchildren a potentialman for five years...Maybe this time he'll get off the ground!

Yes Ed, lots of potential from the models for further cold weather early in the new year, hope the potential continues to show increasing potential in the days ahead!

[Allseasons-Si]

Well,the AO is tanking compared to yesterday's when shannon what's her face was spread all over the place(don't take that as rude lol),the NAO is still forcasting positve though,the 6-10 and 8-14 day 500 mb outlook from NOAA shows a trough sinking SE into Europe.

De-built shows some cold runs in there and dewpoints getting well below  -5 though i suspect the control run is a cold outlier and what stands out the most is look at those wind directions,there seems to be more and more over the last few days to trend easterly so another one to watch there.

Oslo still showing a rise in pressure with a mean of 1020 by the 9th,london av temps on the way down from the 6th

we had a bit of snow today,only a cm but it has by far been a lot better than the last four years and i hope it continues into jan/feb and march

one last thing,i have one last apple that has survived this far and it's a cheeky one if you get what i mean

Edited December 29, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[tight isobar]

36 minutes ago, chris55 said:

????

 

montain torque!!..

And the guidance of welling, and forcing..

I question your posts also-as they are usual-a guide to what somebody has already flagged up.

Do you understand torques-and consiquence!??

If not i'd be happy to walk you down a beginners road..... 

And also ekman spiral..

You'd as others do well to have some input to oceanography...

Living in a maritime island.

Pm-me for dynamics/and analysis..if your itching....?!

 

Edited December 29, 2017 by tight isobar

[Paul_1978]

15 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

montain torque!!..

And the guidance of welling, and forcing..

I question your posts also-as they are usual-a guide to what somebody has already flagged up.

Do you understand torques-and consiquence!??

If not i'd be happy to walk you down a beginners road..... 

And also ekman spiral..

You'd as others do well to have some input to oceanography...

Living in a maritime island.

Pm-me for dynamics/and analysis..if your itching....?!

 

To be honest, and this is meant as constructive feedback, I think more people would have a clue what you’re talking about if you wrote in constructive sentences and paragraphs instead of poetic riddles. 

[chris55]

18 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

montain torque!!..

And the guidance of welling, and forcing..

I question your posts also-as they are usual-a guide to what somebody has already flagged up.

Do you understand torques-and consiquence!??

If not i'd be happy to walk you down a beginners road..... 

And also ekman spiral..

You'd as others do well to have some input to oceanography...

Living in a maritime island.

Pm-me for dynamics/and analysis..if your itching....?!

 

Im just a keen amateur, though I do feel I have a relatively good grip on model understanding in general.

i was not questioning your posts eventual context, I just find your style of grammar and spelling and use of non-words quite hard to fathom. 

Im sure you have solid knowledgeable and meaningful points to make, it's just I can't decipher them.

goverend' 

 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Im just a keen amateur, though I do feel I have a relatively good grip on model understanding in general.

i was not questioning your posts eventual context, I just find your style of grammar and spelling and use of non-words quite hard to fathom. 

Im sure you have solid knowledgeable and meaningful points to make, it's just I can't decipher them.

goverend' 

 

Governed!..

Opologies.