Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[nick sussex]

The ECM is okay but the core of low heights is to the south not se which allows the milder air to feed north from the Med into Central Europe.

In terms of overall pattern it’s fine and I can’t see the Atlantic breaking through post T240 hrs but we want low heights to the se and mainland Europe to cool down in case we see a slider low.

It would be rather insulting if a se ahead of any slider delivered yet more slush !

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

JMA 2m temps for the next month warmer than average across most of the UK and Europe

Chart Ben Noll

That's just absolutely crazy lol no chance of that being realistic.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

That's just absolutely crazy lol no chance of that being realistic.

 

Yes, if the shorter range models / ensemble suites are anything like correct then its already massive bust by mid Jan, that's not to say the UK wont end up above average but the whole of Scandinavia / Central and Eastern Europe with a 3c anomaly????

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, if the shorter range models / ensemble suites are anything like correct then its already massive bust by mid Jan, that's not to say the UK wont end up above average but the whole of Scandinavia / Central and Eastern Europe with a 3c anomaly????

Don't think any of the LRFmodels would have been seeing these pressure rises to the N/NE - don't think any of us here  or  Exeter did either!

Not so say its going to be wintry nirvana but i'm not sure its going to be the raging +NAO /zonal hell hole most of us thought was going to be, the 1st half of the month at least.

Apparently EC 46 has gone colder for Jan so maybe there is room for optimism despite the global drivers pointing to the opposite..

Edited December 29, 2017 by northwestsnow

[West is Best]

Gosh I love that ECM ...  

[SMU]

Can someone just post up the link to the UKMO 168

new phone - no links

[gottolovethisweather]

Two shorter-term dates for the diaries, as the ones to watch (assuming you are in cold snow-loving camp).

• Wednesday 3rd January
• Friday 5th January

Before that, a fair bit of "everything bar the kitchen sink".

Have a great New Year all.  By about D10 I anticipate the Atlantic ridging to have a greater effect on our shores eventually bringing some drier weather around before a change to something different once again my the middle of January.

 

Edited December 29, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[chris55]

37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is pretty much a carbon copy of UKMO 144.

One would assume the low will dig SE and pressure will rise across Scandinavia thereafter...

Yep I agree, EC post 144/168 has its own ideas, but I think it's sniffing around lol. That low at 144 would surely end up digging further south opening the doors for a much more flavourable cold patten to develop. 

We shall see what transpires. At least we have some tangible interest re cold going forward  

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

Gosh I love that ECM ...  

You like rain then! 

The low needs to be centred  over the Low Countries at T192 hrs not near nw France.

Certainly room for improvement in the ECM , I give it 6/10 !

 

[feb1991blizzard]

@Summer Sun

knows how to get the 168 UKMO

@Steve Murr

I'm not sure if its available yet but he always posts it in due course.

 

Edited December 29, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Frosty.]

46 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Oh!!!! yes! yes! yes!

Oh yes indeed, loving the potential ever since the Gfs 00z this morning..another outbreak of wintry weather is possible towards the end of next week onwards!!!..it's going to be very interesting model watching I think

I haven't seen the models for the last three days, glad I chose today to return though!!!

Edited December 29, 2017 by Frosty.

[Daniel*]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, if the shorter range models / ensemble suites are anything like correct then its already massive bust by mid Jan, that's not to say the UK wont end up above average but the whole of Scandinavia / Central and Eastern Europe with a 3c anomaly????

Much like CFSv2 exceptional anomalies same areas 3-5C above average. That model loves the red crayons as much as knocker JMA is pretty alike.  

While parts of CONUS froze it projected crazy ‘warmth’ in the east. I’ll stick with MetO. 

[Singularity]

6 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

(Cut to save scrolling time for others)

So my final visualisation?

Here is my 29th Dec GWO forecast.

My forecast is the yellow line, following the annotations of my opinion. I have had to make various assumptions, and parts of this forecast will go wrong. But I have faith in the trend, and hopefully that will be the way it takes us.

 

GWO composites are available here, if you want to know what this means for the Eastern US region:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/comp.html

Thanks all. 

Snowy

Great post, thanks for your input 

It is fascinating to watch the observed GLAAM continue to stall when every new GEFS update wants to send it downward. Attached is an overlaid image of the latest GEFS mean (bright colours) on that of 20th Dec.

The longer this goes on, the more we will see the proposed increase in westerly momentum to overrun any fledgling Scandinavian Highs being reduced. Should GLAAM start rising as you predict instead, that'll cause even greater modifications and also increase the potential for a more sustained blocking event. At this time, I can't say for sure whether that'll happen or not, but I sure hope your outlook bears fruit! Coupled with more appetite for a mid-month phase 3 MJO from the models today... well, its been a decent one for trends .

The way ECM has been behaving over the past few days, I suspect a similar GLAAM error and subsequent correction has been taking place to that of GFS/GEFS, though probably not to such a large extent.

 

It's shocking that GEFS continues to be allowed to take GLAAM so far from realistic scenarios during the second week of any given model run; the extent to which this distorts the weather patterns means a significant amount of forecasting value is being thrown to the wind .

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Can someone just post up the link to the UKMO 168

new phone - no links

Here you go Steve:

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

JMA 2m temps for the next month warmer than average across most of the UK and Europe

Chart Ben Noll

Thanks Summer Sun, on the ball as ever for letting us all know what we all want to hear! (Not!) 

(edit - I’m just teasing by the way). 

Edited December 29, 2017 by Paul_1978
Clarity

[blizzard81]

Well, for all the confusing aspects with regards to our collective passion of all things weather related, one thing is very clear today. The outlook into the new year is easily the most exciting for 8 years. 

[feb1991blizzard]

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

JMA 2m temps for the next month warmer than average across most of the UK and Europe

Chart Ben Noll

It's that type of chart that you look at with a quick glance, you say "OK" but when you very closely study it at the microlevel, the computer generated twaddle reveals itself.

Edited December 29, 2017 by Weather-history

[bluearmy]

Ec a team day 9 seemed certain to split the jet energy more se than ne and yet at day 9 it went more ne. That's  in line with the biggest eps cluster from the previous suite which maintained the general mobile flow. Only just the biggest cluster and I wouldn't be surprised if Day 9 tomorrow following the same day 8  was sliding/undercutting. The models just don't know how to resolve this area of higher heights. Currently looking unlikely that a sustained scandi ridge would form but you couldn't possibly discount it. 

 

[blizzard81]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

One of those occasions where the ukmo 168z chart is even more less helpful than usual lol. We really need to see what is happening to the north east. 

[Summer Sun]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Might want to check the update date and time that's the reason I haven't posted it

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Well, for all the confusing aspects with regards to our collective passion of all things weather related, one thing is very clear today. The outlook into the new year is easily the most exciting for 8 years. 

Yes the models today, all now showing a more pronounced amplified flow, yesterday they were hinting, but it was a weak indication, and within the reliable timeframe, allowing some height rises to our north by end of next week - when the models back each other up, on such an evolution in the 144-168 hr timeframe, you take note.. a signal has emerged with strong support. 

A promising start to the new year for those hoping for further wintry weather, nothing severe, but a far cry from where we have been since 2013. Indeed 2013 brought a similar set up, a diving trough feature, a stall and height rises to our north in and around the 12 Jan, it took some time for the models to see this though, so your right we started 2013 on a gloomy note model wise for snow cold lovers, but those following the strat thread were expecting a major sudden change come mid-month and it was the strat warming that then enabled the much colder snowy middle-latter part of Jan.

We are though far from where we were 8 years ago, where we were in the midst of a lengthy quite potent cold period. Incidentally Jan 11 started off wintry as well, very blocked to the north, but there was a sense we couldn't possibly continue to see the conditions of recent weeks prevail, and a flip would occur sooner rather than later.

[Summer Sun]

32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Can someone just post up the link to the UKMO 168

new phone - no links

It hasn't updated since last night

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

One of those occasions where the ukmo 168z chart is even more less helpful than usual lol. We really need to see what is happening to the north east. 

SS right, looks like yesterdays

[Jason M]

14 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

It's that type of chart that you look at with a click glance, you say "OK" but when you very closely study at it at the microlevel, the computer generated twaddle reveals itself.

Maybe, or maybe not.

If we look at the blue area over N America temps are massively below average by maybe 10 / 12 degrees, whereas Moscow at the moment is actually above freezing against a normal max of around -6 to -9c. In fact the BBC site shows Moscow as above zero for 8 of the next 9 days with the max on the 9th day as 0c. Given that and the fact that the N American cold spell is expected to have longevity I think that chart is pretty nailed on regardless of what happens in weeks 3 and 4 (which nobody knows) simply because the departure from normal in weeks 1 and 2 are so extreme over much of Europe and NE America.

These charts always show a lot more red than blue though as the background warming continues (oops controversial). The problem if anything is that the base line for comparison (ie expected normal temps) is becoming rapidly outdated. 

 

Edit: based on the above an easterly for the UK is clearly now a racing cert!!

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2017 by Jason M