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Model output discussion - heading into 2018


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Morning all

Hope you all had a good Christmas.

Not many changes this morning in the medium term regarding the overall pattern however  differences between the ECM/UKMO and GFS over the USA with the latter much flatter with the ne low.

The Euros would bring some colder air se again for a time before any ridge topples.

One thing looking at the fax charts is a very messy end to the mini cold snap. The T84hrs shows an occlusion just north of the Borders with cold air still north of that so could be some more snow for Scotland at that time.

There could also be a bit more snow for the north of England away from windward coasts as the same occlusion heads ene before slowing at T72hrs.

Overall we're not seeing any route to a lengthier spell of cold with the PV just too rampant but at least the Euros might deliver another short cold snap.

We'd need to see much more amplitude upstream to get the toppling ridge aligned more favourably and that's a long shot at the moment.

But anyway at least some interest in the shorter term and for some lucky areas December would have produced a couple of snow events.

Lets hope we can get something in the New Year to deliver something more UK wide. :cold-emoji:

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

The recent updates in the zonal wind plots @10MB continue to temper any proposed significant deceleration post peak on New Year’s Day-

The mean now peaks @ 52M/S which ironically is all but identical to last year-

Its worth watching over the next 5-7 days as the deceleration- originally progged to develop from 1st to about the 8th along a sharp gradient is now just forecast to dip to average to about the 10th-

This is obviously ensemble driven data & not entirely reliable at day 10-16 however the ‘trend’ isn’t going the right way-

For that reason the forecast would be 

less than 5% chance of Greenland high developing before the 7th

less than 25% chance of a Scandi high developing before the 7th 

* The 7th being that the chosen date because that’s the current projection to be around average in terms of the zonal wind.

The strat once coupled will nearly always trump the troposphere in terms of driving the blocking until there is a significant warming event to impact it-

No SSW forecast out to at least the 7th...

Generally the Nina base state with the -EPO ridge driving cold into the NE states looks to be the only MLB - with short interludes of cool/ chilly polar North westerlies being our only chances for snow.

The update may change however confidence is fairly high for the next 10-12 days.. 

S

very exiting times i think also to see early New Year

79.gif

5.gif

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 hours ago, Dennis said:

tomorrow UK snow progress (it starts at midnight)

765.gif

76.jpg

77.jpg

A good few hours of heavy snow coming into range via-various output.

Again' the dig of colder air tucking into the system-as it makes eastwards progression.

8/10 cms widely...

And 3/5 poss- lower elevation.

 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Hopefully it’s a start of a trend,seen a few runs building heights to the NE,but always it’s in fl.Looking very zonal in the outputs this morning TBH

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Hopefully it’s a start of a trend,seen a few runs building heights to the NE,but always it’s in fl.Looking very zonal in the outputs this morning TBH

looking like through week 2 systems will disrupt se as they reach nw Europe, sending part of the trough towards Italy/balkans. This disruption could take place just west of the uk (we stay on the cold side of the disruption) or just east (we alternate between warm sectors and lee nowesters).  it does seem like another cold shot is likely days 9/12 and gem shows a way whereby any milder interludes are forshortened in the near to mid term. 

steve's comment re zonal strat flow is correct as per the 00z gefs suite but yesterday's 00z run was much more positive re deceleration so I'm not sure how consistent the gefs is on this.  The idea that high slp may establish to our ne by day 15 remains below 10% on the eps and isn't much higher on the gefs suites (apart from transitory ridging) 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

It's ironic really this constant search for cold and snow, almost always in the furthest reaches of synoptic models, even further a lot of the time.

I ;'real' time we have a probable snow set up and almost no one is talking about it. I wonder why?

Answers please folks, come on is it not interesting to you all?

 

The people who aren't in the risk area don't like it  John!  perceived wisdom is that it goes in the regionals although I'm not going to post in three different reg threads to indicate current thinking on it

looks consistent with previous thinking - initial occlusion runs s Wales to wash and then the wrap around delivers across a swathe of England but I'm not a great fan of wrap around as experience tells me that they aren't so reliable 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

It's ironic really this constant search for cold and snow, almost always in the furthest reaches of synoptic models, even further a lot of the time.

I ;'real' time we have a probable snow set up and almost no one is talking about it. I wonder why?

Answers please folks, come on is it not interesting to you all?

 

Possibly because a marginal 2 inch slushfest isn't what most people chase - most people want the -14c isotherm whistling through the uk all the way into Ireland on chilling severe gale force Easterly winds and not being able to see in front of you for the lake /sea effect snowfall intensity blocking your vision and penetrating and severe frosts with high windchill.

EDIT ; yes I know the answer - Then for most of your life your going to be disappointed - apart from every 10-20 years!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Morning all and i do hope You all enjoyed Christmas day,

Yes wrt the possible snow in the next 24/36hrs,there has been quite a bit of discussion in the regionals mainly,although there has been some on here so it's fair to say this hasn't been overlooked/ignored.

On a more general theme the ens varying around the average,temperature wise over the next 10 days in a generally westerly pattern.The mild interludes do seem to have been modified somewhat but it looks a generally mobile changeable outlook with only brief colder shots from the north west.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

The recent updates in the zonal wind plots @10MB continue to temper any proposed significant deceleration post peak on New Year’s Day-

The mean now peaks @ 52M/S which ironically is all but identical to last year-

Its worth watching over the next 5-7 days as the deceleration- originally progged to develop from 1st to about the 8th along a sharp gradient is now just forecast to dip to average to about the 10th-

This is obviously ensemble driven data & not entirely reliable at day 10-16 however the ‘trend’ isn’t going the right way-

For that reason the forecast would be 

less than 5% chance of Greenland high developing before the 7th

less than 25% chance of a Scandi high developing before the 7th 

* The 7th being that the chosen date because that’s the current projection to be around average in terms of the zonal wind.

The strat once coupled will nearly always trump the troposphere in terms of driving the blocking until there is a significant warming event to impact it-

No SSW forecast out to at least the 7th...

Generally the Nina base state with the -EPO ridge driving cold into the NE states looks to be the only MLB - with short interludes of cool/ chilly polar North westerlies being our only chances for snow.

The update may change however confidence is fairly high for the next 10-12 days.. 

S

Yep quite agree. Coupled strat/trop, strat dictates everything else falls in line.

Interesting the zonal wind  plots identical to last year when of course the QBO was polar opposite to this year. Some people put way to much emphasis on the QBO state, although I must admit I would rather see a negative QBO than positive one.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

It's ironic really this constant search for cold and snow, almost always in the furthest reaches of synoptic models, even further a lot of the time.

I ;'real' time we have a probable snow set up and almost no one is talking about it. I wonder why?

Answers please folks, come on is it not interesting to you all?

 

Anyway a quick look shows it off SW Eire and predicted (By UK Fax charts) to track SW Wales across to just north of London. How far will the ppn belt extend north? will it be snow? How much might fall?

A nice weather set up to keep us all away from the left over turkey today, is it not?

 

A couple of reasons I would imagine...

Probably because its been talked to death already and lol by the same posters that say its not worth talking about as the track will change nearer the time etc, etc.

Once it gets to within 24 hours the conversation transfers into the regional threads.

and last but not least as Feb1991blizzard  has said, most are looking for a deepfreeze with laying powder snow and severe frosts etc although personally seeing snow fall for several hours and the chance for children to get out during the Christmas holidays and if they are lucky build a snowman and have some fun is worth it for me.

Edited by comet
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
25 minutes ago, comet said:

A couple of reasons I would imagine...

Probably because its been talked to death already and lol by the same posters that say its not worth talking about as the track will change nearer the time etc, etc.

Once it gets to within 24 hours the conversation transfers into the regional threads.

and last but not least as Feb1991blizzard  has said, most are looking for a deepfreeze with laying powder snow and severe frosts etc although personally seeing snow fall for several hours and the chance for children to get out during the Christmas holidays and if they are lucky build a snowman and have some fun is worth it for me.

Good points .Id guess that if a siberian high was due to land in the 5-7 day period this transient possible period of snow woudnt be of much intetest.That shows the lack of interest in current mo going into early- mid jan.btw it may turn into a look out of the window event!!!:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

06z euro 4 tends the snow cover further north to be similar to the ecm op. several days on we are still talking s Wales to the wash as the core line from the area north of the low and occlusion and any subsequent cover from the wrap around is less secure. Elevation over 100/150m  looks to play a part aswell within the risk zone.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201712260600&VAR=weas&HH=33&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well lets hope 6Z is way off the mark because its basically wet all the way out to 11th jan and doesn't look good even at 384hrs!!

EC is better with less emphasis on rain...

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
11 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

That's really weird IMO. I thought the EAMT went positive during that period, resulting to the current NP jet extension, and the Okhotsk low. And now the WDT charts aren't loading the current update for me. Very weird....

I contacted WDT - their customer service was pretty good and the updates seem to be online now. 23rd Dec latest. Use chrome... click on options and go to developer's tools inside of more tools. Then right click on the reload page icon (left of the web address bar at the top) and select empty cache and hard reload. This will get rid on any residual cache data in your browser that might be clogging up the update. There is something a bit odd with the WDT site....

Move to GWO phase 1 now locked in

Latest 90 Days GWO

with relative AAM plunging downwards

 

Tendency of Relative AAM

On the positive side frictional torques are now increasing

 

gltauf.90day.gif

which ought to encourage a reversal of the negative MT trend and perhaps reignite a signal for increased AAM in general. Mid January maybe for this - until then no high lat blocking.

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall obviously.
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
24 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I contacted WDT - their customer service was pretty good and the updates seem to be online now. 23rd Dec latest. Use chrome... click on options and go to developer's tools inside of more tools. Then right click on the reload page icon (left of the web address bar at the top) and select empty cache and hard reload. This will get rid on any residual cache data in your browser that might be clogging up the update. There is something a bit odd with the WDT site....

Move to GWO phase 1 now locked in

Latest 90 Days GWO

with relative AAM plunging downwards

 

Tendency of Relative AAM

On the positive side frictional torques are now increasing

gltauf.90day.gif

 

which ought to encourage a reversal of the negative MT trend and perhaps reignite a signal for increased AAM in general. Mid January maybe for this - until then no high lat blocking.

 

Didn't work unfortunately, gave WDT an email. Thank you though.

I was expecting the Frictional torque to go up higher, probably moving the GWO over to Phases 3/4 soon. Just waiting for that +MT to happen.

Edited by Snowy Hibbo
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
3 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

Didn't work unfortunately, gave WDT an email. Thank you though.

I was expecting the Frictional torque to go up higher, probably moving the GWO over to Phases 3/4 soon. Just waiting for that +MT to happen.

I cant get my 23rd Dec frictional torque update to stick on my post - whatever I do it defaults to 22nd Dec which for the life of me I cant understand. However take it from me - frictional torque on the 23rd has climbed a fair bit - close to +1 and climbing on the gradient.

 

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall obviously.
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
16 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I cant get my 23rd Dec frictional torque update to stick on my post - whatever I do it defaults to 22nd Dec which for the life of me I cant understand. However take it from me - frictional torque on the 23rd has climbed a fair bit - close to +1 and climbing on the gradient.

 

I can see the 23rd Dec update.....extremely weird, if you see the 22nd Dec one.

I am guessing MT is still strongly negative? That completely puzzles me, I will have to do some digging and talk to some people.

Edited by Snowy Hibbo
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