Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[tight isobar]

Trawling data-and exactions of slider lp...

There is still mass-suggest on track and placement; allbeit, raw data agree!..

But with visions and vents- its still not straight-forward.

Its monday25-xmas day.. and im confident 12z suites will have nailed it.

'Again' those are the end data points.

[tight isobar]

30 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I wonder: how is the 12Z going to handle the missing balloon-data?

Intresetingly enough..the balloon 'data' is exempt from the alaskan' region...

Could well be some implications from 12z gfs @warm /cold annoms!??...

Exactly why the two sister suites 00z/6z need more compare for alluding transfers.

Edited December 25, 2017 by tight isobar

[knocker]

26 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Trawling data-and exactions of slider lp...

There is still mass-suggest on track and placement; allbeit, raw data agree!..

But with visions and vents- its still not straight-forward.

Its monday25-xmas day.. and im confident 12z suites will have nailed it.

'Again' those are the end data points.

Good to see Unwinese resurrected

[tight isobar]

Ok...this is the point in question...

And is qiuckly being answered.

The colder back-drafting air is not a freind of the more northerly quadrant.

The back-bassing of colder infer is bullying the feature 'yet further south'..

And it would'nt be a rocket scientist; to tell you that the fruition point is south mids/east anglia /home counties/ ...

And tbf..theres likely a fare dumping in favoured spots!!!!

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Good to see Unwinese resurrected

Ya do make me chuckle at times...

Have a good en ..whatever..

Hope sid-boys got plenty of NUTS..

he'll likely need em' both to consume/and for the deep cold!!!!!?

[knocker]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Ya do make me chuckle at times...

Have a good en ..whatever..

Hope sid-boys got plenty of NUTS..

he'll likely need em' both to consume/and for the deep cold!!!!!?

Well at the moment he is tucked up with his nuts to avoid the moderate rain and wind gusting 45mph

[tight isobar]

Just now, knocker said:

Well at the moment he is tucked up with his nuts to avoid the moderate rain and wind gusting 45mph

 

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Well at the moment he is tucked up with his nuts to avoid the moderate rain and wind gusting 45mph

Faiplay ??

[bluearmy]

Icon, gem and gfs no notable variance from previous runs. 

If anything a nudge south but nothing worth comment and no indication that much is likely to change from here. As Exeter mentions, local affects (inc precip intensity) will be relevant 

[Methuselah]

And, to make a bad situation worse, the GFS is carrying-on as if there is no shortage of balloon-data - so still no widespread snow-event...How dare it!

[sausage]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Icon, gem and gfs no notable variance from previous runs. 

If anything a nudge south but nothing worth comment and no indication that much is likely to change from here. As Exeter mentions, local affects (inc precip intensity) will be relevant 

not further south at all. not lhing much will come from this anyway thankfully.

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, sausage said:

not further south at all. not lhing much will come from this anyway thankfully.

Really??!!..

Hate to be a grinch..especialy' being xmas day..

But you are ever viewing 'alien data'...or in denial..

This feature will likely be(opinions differ)- more notable than the initial slid-zip....for favoured areas anyway!..

Edit; im noting an overdrive of ppn as the lp/plot interacts..  

A steady influx of pepping ppn looks almost un-avoidable.....

(

Edited December 25, 2017 by tight isobar

[SMU]

Afternoon - A little shift south on the IKON hi res- interestingly this run gives the SE around 4 - 6 hours of snow- 

accumulation chart reflects that below

The downs look good- although chilterns better- expecting a dusting here at 150m

HAPPY CHRISTMAS !!

Edited December 25, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon - A little shift south on the IKON hi res- interestingly this run gives the SE around 4 - 6 hours of snow- 

accumulation chart reflects that below

The downs look good- although chilterns better- expecting a dusting here at 150m

HAPPY CHRISTMAS !!

And, as per sodding usual, the Triangle of Doom sits proudly alone in the land where snowflakes seldom tread!

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon - A little shift south on the IKON hi res- interestingly this run gives the SE around 4 - 6 hours of snow- 

accumulation chart reflects that below

The downs look good- although chilterns better- expecting a dusting here at 150m

HAPPY CHRISTMAS !!

Midlamds gets hammered on that chart lol!!latest arome gives most of the heavy snowfall for midlands and wales!!some back edge for south east of england!

[MattStoke]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, to make a bad situation worse, the GFS is carrying-on as if there is no shortage of balloon-data - so still no widespread snow-event...How dare it!

Eh? A widespread snow event is exactly what it shows.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Eh? A widespread snow event is exactly what it shows.

Fair point, Matt...I think it must be the modern tendency to call anything an 'event' that's confusing me?

[swfc]

Its shows how bad things are when a marginal-possible few hours of snow dominate here!!!

[Dennis]

its a little sign......but its a start to watch early Jan2018 

[bluearmy]

31 minutes ago, swfc said:

Its shows how bad things are when a marginal-possible few hours of snow dominate here!!!

How bad?

seems likely that some of the same areas (Hereford and Worcester way) that got plastered a fortnight ago will do so again. that's twice as many snow events as we have seen for years south of the Pennines! 

yes, marginal snowfall in many places but some areas will get a good 4/6" again. Not to be sniffed at! 

[Daniel*]

42 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Eh? A widespread snow event is exactly what it shows.

Mm well more than 50 percent of the UK sees nothing.

it’s a pretty similar northern extent to the last snow event maybe a touch more south on Euro4 touch and go for you, it is unlikely to be a exclusively all snow event perhaps for some parts. Heavy rain turning to heavy snow bit of a nightmare, impossible to pinpoint local variation.

Edited December 25, 2017 by Daniel*

[swfc]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

How bad?

seems likely that some of the same areas (Hereford and Worcester way) that got plastered a fortnight ago will do so again. that's twice as many snow events as we have seen for years south of the Pennines! 

yes, marginal snowfall in many places but some areas will get a good 4/6" again. Not to be sniffed at! 

It was in reference to discussing the models going forward.i thought snow , depths ,areas were discussed in the regional thread but I bow to your experience ete

[Frosty.]

Well, i've sobered up a bit, not sure if that's a good or bad thing but here goes..the week ahead still looks very interesting according to the Gfs 12z with a good chance of snow, especially the midweek period as well as some sharp frosts, particularly over the northern snow fields..I hope everyone is having a great day despite the weather, this is my favourite day of the year..good luck with the snow! 

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, swfc said:

It was in reference to discussing the models going forward.i thought snow , depths ,areas were discussed in the regional thread but I bow to your experience ete

Oh I see what you mean  - I think xmas day is different !

 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

GFS 12z still brings a risk of snow across Wales including the south coast. Also to note, sea temperatures in much of the Bristol Channel are currently lower than they've been for several years at this time of year (they're more like we'd expect to see from the end of January through February) this doesn't guarantee snow but if we don't get any on Wednesday then it won't be because the sea is too mild. 

Edited December 25, 2017 by Draig Goch

[ukpaul]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And, as per sodding usual, the Triangle of Doom sits proudly alone in the land where snowflakes seldom tread!

The only model that should be followed re snow depth is a UK one, the others appear to miss the differemt parameters required and imagine we are a continental land mass. The met office’s 1 to 2 cm is on the mark with Peak District and a few lucky places with Welsh mountains and places with elevation further south getting something notable. My old home in Glossop looks okay for a few inches, I might go back for the first time in years!