Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Yeah- deffo nick.

Its been catching the eye with momentum' as has designs for carving of heights in and around point tip-greenland...as an-MLB..

however with polar warmth anoms and varied, vortex placements..as crazy as it sounds...our little cold spell 26/29 dec..

Could become a lot more notable after a breifly unworthy transtional blink eye mildER blip....

Going into 2018....

The ECM is the best of a bad bunch.

The deep ne seaboard low is really the only chance to develop a ridge ahead . We’d need though more amplitude and a low running further inland so would need earlier phasing of both streams .

We should bear in mind it’s only the ECM that develops this monster low and the others are flatter upstream .

 

[knocker]

The wave continues east into the North Sea where it merges with the main upper trough and in the process initiates a cold northerly over the UK. This is but a brief regime and by Thursday a very transient ridge is in place resulting in a cold day with max temps only 3-4C.

But the next front arrives quickly from the west and brings rain and strong winds as it traverses the country on Friday. The front and rain actually track quite sharply ESE into southern France as the Azores ridges somewhat to the west of the UK and the upper trough to the east starts to disrupt south courtesy of the block in eastern Europe.

Following this any ridging from the Azores is short lived as the Atlantic takes over for the weekend, as the block in the east shifts east,  with temps nipping up to 12C, before the next sequence next week with some more amplification in the Atlantic.

Basically the ebbing and flowing of the warm/cold air in this mobile pattern.

Upstream the cold trough has shifted a tad east as the HP ridges to the west.

Edited December 24, 2017 by knocker

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is the best of a bad bunch.

The deep ne seaboard low is really the only chance to develop a ridge ahead . We’d need though more amplitude and a low running further inland so would need earlier phasing of both streams .

We should bear in mind it’s only the ECM that develops this monster low and the others are flatter upstream .

 

Yes 'given'..

Although -again- ecm divulge/evo, is a feasible bias- viewing the NH profiling and poleward heat fluxing..tampering with usa trough movement...

As the momentum is ample for as again a' mlb scuttling toward greenland..

No hlb and complete atlantic/greeny block obviously...but a good staring gun!

Edited December 24, 2017 by tight isobar

[Paul_1978]

30 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Ecm vs gfs @ T192 Who’s been on the brandy 

After being on here nearly a month , I’d like to wish everyone a safe and sound Christmas , thanks to all who have helped me learn so far , me being a pest and my child like questions ‘but why’ ‘ yeah I know but why’ will continue over into 2018 if you don’t get sick of me ! Enjoy everyone ! 

By the way, whilst you’re learning, if anyone mentions “missing data” on the Christmas Day runs, scroll straight past and ignore .

[Frosty.]

A mostly rather cold Ecm 12z, the exceptions being tomorrow, next saturday into sunday which look milder. There is a risk of snow / wintry ppn for some of us during the unsettled week ahead as 522 dam thicknesses extend south for a time and some frosty / icy nights..this run also ends generally colder than the 00z during days 9 /10.

A very happy christmas to all of you

Edited December 24, 2017 by Frosty.

[karyo]

The MJO has made to phase 8 by the skin of its teeth. It is dying a death fast though and after spending some time in the circle of death it may re-emerge this time in phase 3. How long it will take before to has another chance to approach phases 7 an 8 remains to be seen.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

 

[bluearmy]

Eps are more midlands (as before) and the control is, if anything, a tad further north than the op

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended shows an unsettled end to 2017 with some rain in places and windy

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Better EPS, much more troughy wrt UK and temps slightly below average, very weak +anoms in the atlantic, sliders a possibility and runners too.

[karyo]

37 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended shows an unsettled end to 2017 with some rain in places and windy

 

Cooler zonality here so it could be worse. Some rain getting into Iberia too which is a good sign.

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Better EPS, much more troughy wrt UK and temps slightly below average, very weak +anoms in the atlantic, sliders a possibility and runners too.

Not to take too much from one run which leans a little differently but given that the op and ens runs are becoming more amplfied within 8 days, I imagine seeing the more extended period showing some atlantic ridges and euro troughs 

[Daniel*]

Bit irrelevant to here but ECM 12z has historic cold really digging exceptionally S for eastern half of CONUS as 2018 comes in - a number of cold records could go IMO, I’ve never seen anything like it modelled. Makes a change in a warming world, however with knocker talking about ‘bomb’ lows, certaintly ripe for them.

[shotski]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Better EPS, much more troughy wrt UK and temps slightly below average, very weak +anoms in the atlantic, sliders a possibility and runners too.

Just went through all the GEFS ensembles and all the way out to t-300 the majority show the main chunk of PV sitting over the Greenland region. Towards the end of the runs a good few members are still toying with the idea of some form of easterly, so maybe still some hope for mid month ??

[Daniel*]

44 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended shows an unsettled end to 2017 with some rain in places and windy

 

There’s a ‘bomb’ low on T+168 that gradient to the S/SW of the low centre S of Newfoundland. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

23 minutes ago, shotski said:

Just went through all the GEFS ensembles and all the way out to t-300 the majority show the main chunk of PV sitting over the Greenland region. Towards the end of the runs a good few members are still toying with the idea of some form of easterly, so maybe still some hope for mid month ??

EPS by the end scream more chance of greeny than scandi, although I find the former unlikely without strat help, probably talking wedges here again.

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EPS by the end scream more chance of greeny than scandi, although I find the former unlikely without strat help, probably talking wedges here again.

Less than 10% chance of either

Edited December 24, 2017 by bluearmy

[shotski]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Less than 10% chance of either

As you would expect at that range!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, West is Best said:

Merry Christmas Fred and what a top post. I'm sending best possible healing vibes for your mum and dad. You are absolutely right.

very very best wishes,

Richard

Richard and all others liking the post

A big thank you very much indeed.....loving the neartime ECM team

 

BFTP

[tight isobar]

No prizes for guessing where gfs now swings the feature!..

It on a southward track'..

And my point in progress...ie colder exactions chasing in via a more defined length, of incur....

850s will continue a downhill slant as the feature takes-track and trace south.

And the syphon of cooler above's make inroads.... 18z.

Edited December 24, 2017 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

42 minutes ago, shotski said:

As you would expect at that range!!

Why so? less than five runs out of the fifty. The gefs have been showing up to thirty percent scandi highs from time to time past fortnight by day 16. 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

No prizes for guessing where gfs now swings the feature!..

It on a southward track'..

And my point in progress...ie colder exactions chasing in via a more defined length, of incur....

850s will continue a downhill slant as the feature takes-track and trace south.

And the syphon of cooler above's make inroads.... 18z.

Looking at the high res chart shows entry Severn estuary and exit the wash so I don't see any southern adjustment. 

Imo, the current trend to a more pendulum movement is less good for snow coverage. A more sliding movement against the ridge is required 

Edited December 24, 2017 by bluearmy

[ukpaul]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

No prizes for guessing where gfs now swings the feature!..

It on a southward track'..

And my point in progress...ie colder exactions chasing in via a more defined length, of incur....

850s will continue a downhill slant as the feature takes-track and trace south.

And the syphon of cooler above's make inroads.... 18z.

I can understand the hopecasting but it isn’t, it is pretty much the same, a little north to start, slightly south as it turns across the country. In any case, this time before the previous event the met office were onboard with forecasts and warnings, this time they are having none of it. Even looking at the Welsh mountains they are showing sleet.

The 28th/29th though may turn out to be more interesting, with lower temperatures, lower 850s.

 

[andymusic]

13 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

I can understand the hopecasting but it isn’t, it is pretty much the same, a little north to start, slightly south as it turns across the country. In any case, this time before the previous event the met office were onboard with forecasts and warnings, this time they are having none of it. Even looking at the Welsh mountains they are showing sleet.

The 28th/29th though may turn out to be more interesting, with lower temperatures, lower 850s.

 

bit early for warnings for Wednesday just yet from meto - looks just fine and the welsh mountains will be pasted once again oh and the mild is being pushed back on each run and cold is being extended

Edited December 24, 2017 by andymusic

[tight isobar]

33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at the high res chart shows entry Severn estuary and exit the wash so I don't see any southern adjustment. 

Imo, the current trend to a more pendulum movement is less good for snow coverage. A more sliding movement against the ridge is required 

Its agreeable that a slide' is now more a' incoming stag-feature.

But as -again that alone' is a, start of pin-point gain-or not; as the colder air starts inroads into/ rather than behind the feature.

And this is my argument.

It could (as now) become a partial stalled base feature; with time'  for mass variation of both transitional precip to snow-(favoured spots) and with mild sector air spots being mixed out as opposite -previous slider.- it really has got suprise element written all over this one.

And its fast- becoming a look and take not developing....

But take your fancy as you see.?

Edited December 24, 2017 by tight isobar

[comet]

9 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

I can understand the hopecasting but it isn’t, it is pretty much the same, a little north to start, slightly south as it turns across the country. In any case, this time before the previous event the met office were onboard with forecasts and warnings, this time they are having none of it. Even looking at the Welsh mountains they are showing sleet.

The 28th/29th though may turn out to be more interesting, with lower temperatures, lower 850s.

 

No model will have the exact path laid down yet and won't do until maybe 12 hours before hand, therefore I would suggest everyone enjoy the rest of Christmas eve, have a lovely Christmas day tomorrow with family, friends and loved ones and then see where we are  Boxing day.

Merry Christmas to all on Netweather.