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Model output discussion - heading into 2018


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here. 
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The control is following the op with the jet digging further south,was it a phantom SWL'y/SSWl'y on the other earlier suits,as always,much to be resolved,and the best thing is that some of us will see some snow over the holiday's:)

back later for the ECM.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Whilst i would love that sentiment to hold true i think thats a very bold statement- UKMO would not go onto show anything like GFS imho.

I do agree that GFS12 z was a nice run for coldies- :)

Met offices in house model has a bit of sleetyness but for the most part  heavy rain with next weeks slider.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Met offices in house model has a bit of sleetyness but for the most part  heavy rain with next weeks slider.

Strange- the update today from exeter mentions snow next week - moderate chance (and the uppers seem a bit lower on todays 96-120) :)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Strange- the update today from exeter mentions snow next week - moderate chance (and the uppers seem a bit lower on todays 96-120) :)

Maybe they are dissing their own model then - uppers on which model you talking about? ive just looked at the met office map - its automated - updated by the UKV I think (always get mixed up between UKV and UK4)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions96

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

UKMO 96-120 Feb.

144 is milder with the flow becoming SWly..i would say with Boxing day until late on the 27th would be the only window of opportunity - depending on evap cooling etc i would suggest elevated places could do well.

I might be completely wrong of course..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Its noticeable that the GEFS shows more members with a fragmented PV upto T240hrs. A few days ago we saw that foreboding PV blob stuck to the north.

The issue for the outlook is exactly how the PV lobe to the ne runs towards Canada. Its all messy and rather complex, the lobe moving nw tends to leave space to the ne for some pressure rises but its how this interacts with a sister lobe to the nw.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions96

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

UKMO 96-120 Feb.

144 is milder with the flow becoming SWly..i would say with Boxing day until late on the 27th would be the only window of opportunity - depending on evap cooling etc i would suggest elevated places could do well.

I might be completely wrong of course..

Difficult to tell when PPN is - anyway some of the shorter range models will be coming into range now so we wont have long to find out.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions96

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

UKMO 96-120 Feb.

144 is milder with the flow becoming SWly..i would say with Boxing day until late on the 27th would be the only window of opportunity - depending on evap cooling etc i would suggest elevated places could do well.

I might be completely wrong of course..

I think if you’re within the -4C isotherm then you’re hunky-dory looking at UKMO the slider low. The northern extent is pretty similar to the last slider probably a touch more north hard to say.

GFS 12z keeps it quite wintry for the north.. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean shows increasingly wintry weather next week, especially further north but through the midweek period of wed / thurs it looks cold enough for snow in many areas..hopefully the new year will bring further wintry spells, as blizzard81 mentions, this looks a better mean than the earlier 6z, especially further north in terms of it staying colder for longer!:santa-emoji::cold-emoji:

21_96_2mtmpmax.png

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21_144_500mb.png

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21_192_2mtmpmax.png

21_192_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Much, much better gfs ensembles on the 12z. The 06z set, and the previous few to that were showing the mean 850hpa almost touching plus 5 degrees at the end of the year.  The 12z mean shows 0 degrees at the same time frame. This for London. So much better further north. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Yes, Frosty, only fair I suppose, north's turn for the boxing day slider snow day, as you missed last one, great hit here, but I shall miss this one, no repeat of 2014 either, I was lucky then too!

 

gfs-0-102.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Letchworth Garden City
  • Location: Letchworth Garden City
7 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

The met office 30 day ahead forecast changes more than the mood on this thread , and that’s saying something ! 

Hehe or a CFS +1074 chart.....still, gives us a little excitement in the run up to Christmas, doesn't it?

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

I am very pleased with the 12z GFS as it lost the southwesterlies and the carrot at the end of the stick (Scandi high).

It keeps cool zonality throughout.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Looking at GEFS looks pretty wintry for the foreseeable for the north the snow risk doesn’t completely subside even further south theme of keeping lows on a southerly track - who knows.

Just for fun some of my favs in the extended range :crazy:

B17FAC42-00B8-4E30-AA0B-34895A5533A8.thumb.png.767fd27eab8bb86325d0b42d7945d2d4.png56F27FF8-273F-4BB7-BCBC-35F335B85E3A.thumb.png.1635da471c55b79e73b1fdc892f1b13c.png

E9463A31-56DA-49D1-9EA6-46792C482247.thumb.png.4e77393adc680e8c81854d99ae6d2d35.png6AEB870C-C1C7-458F-86AD-38E0A3FC5902.thumb.png.ea9c48c5e263d596825dd635b5dff307.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
13 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

The met office 30 day ahead forecast changes more than the mood on this thread , and that’s saying something ! 

Yeah, really positive for coldies a few days ago, now they are pretty much saying nothing cold in Jan.  So with that, I'll just ignore it and hope something cold crops up - GEFS have some eye candy in FI this run as mentioned.

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

Some long overdue hope on the gfs 12z! Still, will this trend continue? Or will the "cold" snap last as long as a Mormon in Magaluf?

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Still rather chilly at 144 hours with the jet diving well into central Europe and even Italy for a time while the 0z had a flatter pattern with high pressure across the Med.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Much better than the 144 hour chart from the UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

06z ens shows a cool down to be shortlived much milder to start 2018

DRpj4m8W4AAIG0j.thumb.jpg.a2ef1da6bf2a745206245aa1f1376c76.jpg

Big drop down this evening

5a3d50c8cea20_DRq9NSYXcAMxgcj.jpglarge.thumb.jpg.ccc52e21f327d8aee5f29be196021872.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ecm / Ukmo 12z T+144 comparison..for a coldie it's got to be the Ecm hasn't it!:cold-emoji::santa-emoji:

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i'm looking forward to seeing the EC snow depth charts this evening!

EC keeps us in  cold PM airflow from tues until Fri!!

MUCH colder than the 00z run!!

They're already out - upwards of 10 inches for our neck of the woods - absolute claptrap.

In fact 19 inches lying by the end of the run - ive never heard of any model output so pathetic in my life.

If you had that as a level base of snow around here, there would be drifts so high that houses would actually be completely submerged in snow.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Aye Frosty. Temps mostly between 4 and 8C (possibly more like 3 and 9C?) ought to be 'cold' enough for sleet and snow to fall on at least one or two occasions...as BA said above - pretty typical 'old fashioned' January fare. Far better than the crap to which we've become accustomed!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Comparing like for like, tonight's Ecm 12z is colder than last nights with a stronger potential for snow and also frosts / ice..hope the upgrades continue!☺?:cold-emoji:

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

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120_mslp850uk.png

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144_mslp850uk.png

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144_mslp500.png

168_mslp850uk.png

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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