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Model output discussion - heading into 2018


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Good resistance this run from an emerging block sending energy south east.Will change but good to talk about

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0

 

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

Not so sure why there is so much negativity this morning following one poor run. The overall suggestion by the models still seems to be one that its going to get colder later next week, and the models are still playing with just how cold and for how long. I fully expect the models to more generally produce some exciting output very soon, just think that on this occasion on assessment of the overall evaluations being shown for next week, that an easterly/North easterly is the most likely eventual outcome.    

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

An Easterly next weekend looks possible with the colder air to the North. Lots of mobile fast moving fronts pushing through next week, With gales and heavy rain for most driven by an extreamly powerful jet steam over the UK. Lots to keep tabs on.. Into the depths of the run, And Pm air tends to be winning out with cold blasts from the N/W.

viewimage-16.thumb.png.b9d8e28d771ae0c2fcf84169dfd9b2eb.pngviewimage-35.thumb.png.0c8651082867c4b42584d38de7ec140f.pngviewimage-33.thumb.png.c26914950043a8000a9f8423f318b2b5.pngviewimage-13.thumb.png.bece8f7a3621a6f52e1d696acd482b9f.png

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Oodles of potential but nothing definite, apart from our being to the north of the (850hPa) 0C isotherm, for almost the entire run...a great run for the Scottish ski industry?

h850t850eu.png

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29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yeah - could see a warm easterly shortly !!!

This fixation with the 850hPa / surface temps on charts 10 days away is, I think, a case of straining at gnats and swallowing camels. The key thing with medium range charts is, imho, the evolution.

I'm excited by the prospective evolution and development. I particularly like the way a high is developing over Svalbard: the holy grail of cold weather.

It's also an example of how a violent Atlantic can move things around in our favour. This chart is actually the precursor to the height rises:

5a47715bcaf9f_ScreenShot2017-12-30at10_54_24.thumb.png.6bfd65ad46eea14aa6e66580e22b4431.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

An Amber warning out for Dylan tomorow

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Storm Dylan is expected to develop in the east Atlantic on Saturday night then track northeastwards close to Northern Ireland and into Scotland on New Years Eve. This will bring some very strong winds to these areas with gusts of 55-65 mph expected for many parts and a short period of gusts of 70-80 mph for some places. The winds will ease from the west as the low continues to move northeast, winds easing down in the early afternoon.

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_5.thumb.png.64c2844693aa2c2df74d6b5b61b7a23d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Agreed the evolution on the 06z is imo pretty plausible even to the point where the Scandi High doesn’t doninate for very long.  A very good run, I concur.

Details to vary but I think we are getting there.

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Very pleasing GFS6Z- there will be wintry opportunities down the line if this is the correct evolution.

Fingers crossed for some support from the ens.

Just need EC det to show something similar!!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very pleasing GFS6Z- there will be wintry opportunities down the line if this is the correct evolution.

Fingers crossed for some support from the ens.

Just need EC det to show something similar!!

but it was supported by the ens ?

and I would prefer to see the ens stay with continuity whilst ec det is flitting about days 8/10. If ec det fixes on a solution then I'm rethinking 

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

but it was supported by the ens ?

and I would prefer to see the ens stay with continuity whilst ec det is flitting about days 8/10. If ec det fixes on a solution then I'm rethinking 

Which ENS ??? The run is still coming out ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

but it was supported by the ens ?

and I would prefer to see the ens stay with continuity whilst ec det is flitting about days 8/10. If ec det fixes on a solution then I'm rethinking 

The ECM ens don't look quite as good as the 12z in London graph form, Not as many go between 0 and -5c as night time minimums in the 10-15d range.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM ens don't look quite as good as the 12z in London graph form, Not as many go between 0 and -5c as night time minimums in the 10-15d range.

I haven't seen the EC ens- the GFS looks a little underwhelming south of manchester so perhaps they will be along the lines of GFS6Z..

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Just putting the potential mini easterly to one side (certainly not a given though), the first half of January at least is shaping up to be very unsettled. Are we about to pay for the dry Autumn I wonder? 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC det was pretty much a mild outlier or certainly one of the very mildest options between the 5th and the 7th :)

It might be of concern that the control was also one of the milder options..

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