Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[Methuselah]

Merry Christmas, everyone...Unfortunately even the good ol' GFS is rather lacking in the glad tidings department, just now...?

Just a matter of waiting and waiting and waiting, methinks?

[MP-R]

Merry Christmas all! Thank you to all those providing brilliant content on this thread over the year. Here's to another year and hopefully something of interest weatherwise next year.

[The PIT]

Merry xmas everyone. Happy enough with the model runs although I prefer the ECM over the GFS. Looks like a short cold snap coming up with some white stuff around. Anyway it looks like we are entering again into a period of interesting weather.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Good morning! ?

Like to wish you all a warm Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Certainly been an interesting year of model watching! Do make sure you all behave yourselfs, ‘cos Santa is watching ??

Aside from the possibly of a wintry mix tomorrow tonight into Wednesday for some parts, particularly Central areas (as models show a Low moving through Southern UK), I think I know how a wintry wonderland with lots of blocking and white stuff could be achieved.

All that needs to be done is for this to be solved, and none of the cold fans will ever become snow-starved ever again. I truly believe it will hold the magic power to transport us to the Snow Kingdom where all our snowy desires will be fulfilled. Winter 2017/18 will never be the same. Again ?

[Mark wheeler]

Merry Christmas to Everyone, Thanks to all the contributors in here , I have learned so much over the years and remain grateful to all . 

Here is to hopefully a cold and snowy January .

Mark 

[Summer Sun]

Parts of northern Spain has status orange warnings for Storm Bruno tomorrow

For the UK we'll be turning colder with some snow in Scotland and the Pennines later tomorrow some persistent rain will move into the south-west this could give some snow in the south at times tomorrow night and into Wednesday

Edited December 25, 2017 by Summer Sun

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Merry Christmas everyone 

Nadolig Llawen pawb

On the beach in Porthcawl ready to watch the Christmas swim and its a balmy 13C, so yet again this year if it wasn't for all the festive costumes, it wouldn't feel like Christmas Day at all, more like Halloween! ?

Snow still showing across Wales and moving East on the GFS 6z from the early hours of Wednesday so a big change coming. 

Hope you all have a great day

[Daniel*]

I told folk to get away from their electricals hey ho  

ECM has the most S track albeit marginally so it’s trended north if anything followed by GFS then UKMO overall fairly good agreement on track but I suspect we’ll see more changes.

apparently the occlusion is a very active one, a narrow 50 mile wide belt could see a lot of snow. 

[andymusic]

lovely jubbly

even London way

Edited December 25, 2017 by andymusic

[booferking]

Jan could be an interesting month hopefully with plenty of chances for snow gefs looking blocky again.

 

Merry Christmas everyone & good health to all. 

 

Edited December 25, 2017 by booferking

[stodge]

Morning all

Merry Christmas to all on here.

Have to say the 00Z GEFS weren't without interest but we're a long way from a pattern change as yet it would seem.

Rainfall accumulations on the 06Z OP worth a look - might be some concerns in some areas.

[Newberryone]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO going to go colder into 2018?

ECM has a major low heading to Iceland right at the end

Must be that lack of data affecting it

Hopefully a lack of data it is, for only one thing could be responsible for deflecting such an intense depression that far north and that’s those heights down to the southwest. Wouldn’t want such heights to become a precursor to any potential Bartlett style setup as we head into Jan. Anyhow, that as it may be, may I take this opportunity of wishing all my fellow netweather enthusiasts a happy and peaceful Christmas as well as every good wish for 2018. 

[Snowman.]

I hope everyone is enjoying there Christmas Day

Meanwhile I've had a look at the GEFS Anoms which indicates Above heights NE and low SE.

 

 

V early days but perhaps signs that the zonal spell may have an end and it's not as far away as we think.

[Frosty.]

Happy Christmas all..looking at the models we are not looking at a mild mush fest outlook, more likely we are into a seasonal pattern with some colder spells at times which we are indeed looking at after today..hiccup, yes I've been drinking so please forgive my rambling ..but the week ahead certainly has some wintry interest with a chance of snow for some as well as frosty / icy nights..have a great day.

[Summer Sun]

Away from Scotland parts of Wales central and southern England could see some snow tomorrow night and into Wednesday possible even up to the Pennies

Friday could see some fairly widespread snow in the north

Tomorrow is the switch over to colder air

Wednesday sees temps falling throughout the day across the board

Edited December 25, 2017 by Summer Sun

[northwestsnow]

Yes Gavin, Aprege takes the precip quite a lot further north with GFS - euro4 nowhere near as far north- assuming BBC/Meto dismissing Aprege/GFS at this stage.

[shaky]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes Gavin, Aprege takes the precip quite a lot further north with GFS - euro4 nowhere near as far north- assuming BBC/Meto dismissing Aprege/GFS at this stage.

That was the arpege 0z!!arpege 06z takes it further south more in line with euro4!!maybe a tad further north!!

[OfficialKevWX]

Snow looking increasingly likely to lower ground by Wednesday AM according to the metoffice

[knocker]

This the latest I've seen

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A weather system moving east across southern England is likely to bring a mix of heavy rain and snow. 15-25 mm of rain is likely quite widely within the warning area with some places receiving 30-40 mm. As the rain becomes increasingly heavy, it is likely to turn to snow in places, initially over parts of Wales and perhaps the Peak District then over central England in the early hours of Wednesday. Snow may fall to increasingly low levels, giving a cm or two in places. with 2-5 cm accumulating locally above 100 m, and perhaps 10 cm in a few places. These larger amounts are more likely over Wales whilst East Anglia and Lincolnshire see little or no snow. There is low confidence in the balance between rain and snow with marked variations likely from place to place in the amounts of any snow

 

[bluearmy]

The track of this system is pretty much agreed upon now cross model - variances are no more than 20 miles. The 12z runs will conform if there is any inkling that the shape may change which could affect the swing ne, and therefore the snow risk area - this doesn't look to have the uncertainty of the last slider. Swingers are clearly more predictable! 

 

  

  

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes Gavin, Aprege takes the precip quite a lot further north with GFS - euro4 nowhere near as far north- assuming BBC/Meto dismissing Aprege/GFS at this stage.

We both know it will miss us south ?

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Ramp said:

We both know it will miss us south ?

To be fair, few decent models have shown it getting as far north as you guys 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

To be fair, few decent models have shown it getting as far north as you guys 

Some models had it so far North it was even marginal for us at one stage last time!!!!   

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Some models had it so far North it was even marginal for us at one stage last time!!!!   

I used the word 'decent' for a good reason. Feb! 

Last time was clearly a different situation with the ridging ahead of the low more tricky to model. the high res output did a decent job in retrospect. 

[Methuselah]

I wonder: how is the 12Z going to handle the missing balloon-data?

Edited December 25, 2017 by Ed Stone