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Model output discussion - heading into 2018

Paul

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25 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

No shortage of depressions:

h850t850eu.png

Nevermind 80% of the mood in here, what are the models showing :D

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As with the GEFS 6z mean, the 12z also has a pronounced cold signal from the 26th through to the end of next week, especially further north with snow likely to feature as well as frosty, icy nights.:santa-emoji:

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34 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Anyway, an increasingly cold, complex, unsettled spell next week as these Gfs 12z charts show which follows on nicely from the GEFS 6z mean which also indicated something similar..so, some potential for wintry surprises from around the 26th through towards the end of next week with snow, ice and frosts in the forecast during that period for much of the uk, especially further north..hopefully the models can build on this idea and extend it further!:cold-emoji:

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Personally I take those precipitation type charts with a truck-full of salt. For some places they might be accurate but for my location on the south coast of Wales I find them very inaccurate as well as the snow depth / accumulations chart, that's often way out. 

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Probably clutching at straws, but the observed MJO today was more amplified than any of the models were going for, and has only propagated half as far east. I remember CPC discussing the potential for it to move more slowly in phases 7-8 than the models predict.

It'd take some going to turn the tables on the La Nina-like atmospheric state development, though!

So... don't go betting the farm on it :nea:.

 

GFS very much on the trough disruption and elongation theme this evening thanks to a better alignment of the flow on the eastern flank of the ridging into Greenland for bringing deep cold air into play (this can act as a bit of a road block to Atlantic systems trying to simply blast their way eastward). 

Of course, UKMO has taken a similar alignment of flow and given it no say on how the trough behaves whatsoever, just to keep things nice and uncertain in terms of snow chances during the festive holidays :pardon::laugh:.

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1 hour ago, NorthernRab said:

h500slp.png

 

Much better heights over Greenland on the latest GFS!

Wow that actually looks quite good, it looks as though the Azores and pacific high that is just getting into green land could meet up, Doesn't this time but the possibility looks to be there. More runs needed.

Edited by alexisj9
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20 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Probably clutching at straws, but the observed MJO today was more amplified than any of the models were going for, and has only propagated half as far east. I remember CPC discussing the potential for it to move more slowly in phases 7-8 than the models predict.

It'd take some going to turn the tables on the La Nina-like atmospheric state development, though!

So... don't go betting the farm on it :nea:.

 

GFS very much on the trough disruption and elongation theme this evening thanks to a better alignment of the flow on the eastern flank of the ridging into Greenland for bringing deep cold air into play (this can act as a bit of a road block to Atlantic systems trying to simply blast their way eastward). 

Of course, UKMO has taken a similar alignment of flow and given it no say on how the trough behaves whatsoever, just to keep things nice and uncertain in terms of snow chances during the festive holidays :pardon::laugh:.

Didn't you make a post about two weeks ago overlaying the day old mjo forecast on the current one and all the models had been way off with their forecast. Anyway if it wasn't you someone did

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

HALLO!  HALLO!

gfsnh-10-384.png?12

 

384 hours away. I think we'd be more interested when it's <200 hours away. 

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15 minutes ago, knocker said:

I wonder whether my pension will be affected now that I've succumbed and gone over to the dark side.

I do hope not Knocker. I 'd hate to see Sydney go hungry when the snow comes.

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21 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Wow that actually looks quite good, it looks as though the Azores and pacific high that is just getting into green land could meet up, Doesn't this time but the possibility looks to be there. More runs needed.

And this looks even better

image.thumb.png.f3f148ab7b22fa6fc5aa3cd1e22cf5f1.png

Well it is nearly Christmas....

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Maybe everyone has a short memory but the last slider event was shown on the charts to be a Northern England and Scotland event only for the models closer to the time tp drag it a few hundred miles south. It didn't even reach Manchester/Liverpool in the end.

I fully expect the UKMO to be too far North with the track of the lows. If the jet is pushed a bit further south, could be a really interesting period after Xmas. 

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The bottom of the pile CHAVgem...but worth a butchers!

😃

navgem-0-132.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Don't think EC is going to be up to much unfortunately-

Further north with the 'slider' at 144 and the jet not as far south as GFS...

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Last few frames ecm gonna be interesting.

Can we get that colder 850 hpa into the incoming lps?

And get the track correct?

ECM1-168.gif

Screenshot_2017-12-21-18-37-07.png

Edited by tight isobar
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12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't think EC is going to be up to much unfortunately-

Further north with the 'slider' at 144 and the jet not as far south as GFS...

It still becomes pretty chilly and unsettled with 528 dam thicknesses, some wintry ppn, even a risk of snow, especially higher up and further north..At least it doesn't look mild after monday.

Edited by Frosty.
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Hurricane force winds on that storm looks scary - explosive cyclogenesis is highly likely. Will we be impacted? Certaintly possible with jet not going over top.

AEA69668-6E9E-43FC-8A7F-EE35DA3C239B.thumb.gif.d277fd40fb49fad8187576413f33d119.gif

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Ecm @192..

Pv in a rite old state..

Canadian main lobe dropping deep...

Nearly hanging into the atlantic ocean??!!

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Nope nothing terribly exciting if your looking for wintry weather,on tonight’s ECM.

Next........

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6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hurricane force winds on that storm looks scary - explosive cyclogenesis is highly likely. Will we be impacted? Certaintly possible with jet not going over top.

AEA69668-6E9E-43FC-8A7F-EE35DA3C239B.thumb.gif.d277fd40fb49fad8187576413f33d119.gif

528 damm thicknesses south of the Midlands,would image high ground Manchester Northwards would see Blizzrd conditions FI though so best file Under bin for now

C.S. 

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Looking at the Ecm 12z next week, becoming rather cold beyond monday and unsettled too with strong winds at times and a wintry mix of rain, sleet, snow, ice and frosts..the snow especially with elevation and further north but overall, a much more interesting weather pattern than this week!!..time for upgrades too..:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Nope nothing terribly exciting if your looking for wintry weather,on tonight’s ECM.

Next........

A complete mess, both meteorlogicaly and synoptical.

 

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9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hurricane force winds on that storm looks scary - explosive cyclogenesis is highly likely. Will we be impacted? Certaintly possible with jet not going over top.

AEA69668-6E9E-43FC-8A7F-EE35DA3C239B.thumb.gif.d277fd40fb49fad8187576413f33d119.gif

Is that similar to the feature @knocker referenced in the GFS 6z run?

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

fwiw, ec op has a channel low T120-T144 which dumps on the moors

yep, just checked the experimental snow depth charts and it does indeed!

That aside- if your looking for snow- its not great..

Edited by northwestsnow

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