Jump to content
Paul

Model output discussion - heading into 2018

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here. 
For more general chat and banter, moans and ramps, please head to the banter thread.
For general weather chat, please go to the regional threads.

Notice a problem with a post? Please hit the report button.
Thank you!

View the latest forecast models in the Netweather DataCentre

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

40 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Merry Christmas one and all, I’ll sign off with some cold Ens members 

78DE234A-D1BB-4AAD-8280-238EEB234EAE.thumb.gif.b8d0235f9e1492da5b19d746829e522c.gif

Ignore the mild ones, ba hum bug 😜

I wish shannon enter..what's it's face a very merry Christmas:rofl::D

control run a trend setter:D

eps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.dee0e731c19f83a5d55b2174300ae024.pngeps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.8908fbf1313aabaf9b372ecaeb45387f.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 7
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Merry xmas everyone from a dank mild Sheffield. The 18z did show a glimmer of hope in fi with an attempt at building a scan high ete

Wish it was at 48hrs looking at the nhp and pv at the 130h mark because it isnt pretty.whatever the weather enjoy ,make merry and stay safe .:)

Edited by swfc
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm has the low 982mb Celtic Sea to north Devon at 1800 Tuesday with much rain in south west.

By 00 it is along the M4 and at 06 Wednesday it is orientated Sussex to great Yarmouth.

For what it's worth the ecm is showing quite substantial snow falls for Wales and the Midlands with lesser amounts for counties in the south west

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Merry crimstmas all, and some good news is that the ENS are showing a Scandy high in FI on the majority - of sorts anyway 

  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Merry Christmas to everyone in this thoroughly enjoyable rollercoaster of a thread. Here's hoping we all see at least one decent snowfall this Winter. :hi:

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some good charts there s4lancia. Could be even better if we had the missing Xmas data input....Happy Christmas :D

  • Like 1
  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

merry  xmas   all just looked at f1  if that comes off we will all go in to the deep  cold!!!:cold::cold:

  • Like 7
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Merry xmas all and one.

Let's drink to a very snowy new year!

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Merry Christmas to all :) 🎄Hope your turkey is moist and your sprouts are crunchy ;) 

latest ECM snow levels from Wednesdays low,

IMG_3098.thumb.PNG.d620b8540abacc6a44c4eacbdec4d23f.PNG

As others have said exact track and nature of the system to be decided regarding rain/snow. But nice to have the risk of at least some seeing falling snow over the xmas week .

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO going to go colder into 2018?

ukm2.2018010100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1112b1ed4bc5637b3c5bbbdc399201c9.png

ECM has a major low heading to Iceland right at the end

ECM1-240.thumb.GIF.c1b7b4a09631d0791ad13bfa6ead390c.GIF

Must be that lack of data affecting it :crazy:

  • Like 1
  • Haha 5
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Merry Christmas to all :) 🎄Hope your turkey is moist and your sprouts are crunchy ;) 

latest ECM snow levels from Wednesdays low,

IMG_3098.thumb.PNG.d620b8540abacc6a44c4eacbdec4d23f.PNG

As others have said exact track and nature of the system to be decided regarding rain/snow. But nice to have the risk of at least some seeing falling snow over the xmas week .

I hope that’s correct. Birmingham in the middle of it all again.

track is still subject to changes in my opinion 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO going to go colder into 2018?

ukm2.2018010100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1112b1ed4bc5637b3c5bbbdc399201c9.png

ECM has a major low heading to Iceland right at the end

ECM1-240.thumb.GIF.c1b7b4a09631d0791ad13bfa6ead390c.GIF

Must be that lack of data affecting it :crazy:

Great. The day I fly into Reykjavik 😱 Hopefully I will make it in one piece and see a full on blizzard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

I wish shannon enter..what's it's face a very merry Christmas:rofl::D

control run a trend setter:D

eps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.dee0e731c19f83a5d55b2174300ae024.pngeps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.8908fbf1313aabaf9b372ecaeb45387f.png

 

Be an interesting stat if the data has ever been collated. What percentage of an outlier control or op run turns out to be a trendsetter? 

Merry Xmas all 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Similar Content

    • By Paul
      With a potential cold end to winter and start to spring on the horizon, here's a thread to discuss the ins and outs of that, how the latest forecasts are looking and so on. 
      There's obviously a lot of chat in the model thread about this currently, and you can also find info about the SSW over in the strat thread. 
      Nick has also blogged about the SSW here:
      Sudden Stratospheric Warming This Weekend, But What Is It & How Will It Affect Our Weather?
      And about the model mayhem currently being caused by it here:
      Sudden Stratospheric Warming Brings Weather Model Mayhem
      It's fair to say that confidence in the exact weather we're going to see from mid-next week onward is currently very low, but the Met Office are confident enough in the likelihood of cold weather that they've recently put out a press release:
      https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-potential-impacts-on-uk
      Winter could be set to go out with a bang it seems, but it's not nailed on, yet.....
    • By Paul
      The much talked about SSW has taken place, but as Nick blogged about a few days ago, it doesn't always mean cold for the UK. The signs are good though (if you like cold that is), and the model output is showing a lot of northern blocking currently. It's set to be a really interesting time to follow the models if nothing else, so please carry on the discussion here. 
      As ever, please keep it to model discussion only in this thread.....
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Snow forecast and precip type
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By Paul
      Please only post about the model output in this thread - if you're unsure what this entails, and what thread you should be using, please see our posting guide:
      https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89198-model-threads-posting-guide/.
      We don't want to do it, but we have and will either block from posting, or pre-moderate the posts of those who continually post off topic posts in here. So please don't let that be you, with what may be a very interesting/exciting spell of weather on the way.  
      If you spot a post which you believe may be off topic or breaking the forum guidelines in any way, please hit the report button, and don't respond in the thread. The team will deal with reports as quickly as they can.
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Snow forecast and precip type
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By syed2878
      Hi folks this might be a bit to earlly but what are your thoughts and hopes for winter 2017-2018?
    • By Paul
      Lots happening weather wise at the moment, and lots of uncertainty as to what may happen next. 
      One thing that is also uncertain sometimes, is what is model discussion, and what isn't. So we've made a handy guide to the model threads, and what posts should go where. Please take a look at it here, and try to use the most relevant thread for your post:
      As ever, please hit the report button if you spot a post which you believe may be off topic or breaking the forum guidelines in any other way. The team will deal with reports as quickly as they can.
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Snow forecast and precip type
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×