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Model output discussion - heading into 2018

Paul

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No model ramblings for me this late just wanted to say a Merry Christmas to everyone here. :cold-emoji::reindeer-emoji:

And here’s to a happy and hopefully snowy New Year!  :santa-emoji:

And there was me thinking you was coming on to say that NOAA discussions were dismissing all model output apart from the few scandi highs on the eps because the upstream profile fitted them better and all state forecasts were using a blend of Jan 1987 and feb1991 to make their predictions.

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40 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Merry Christmas one and all, I’ll sign off with some cold Ens members 

78DE234A-D1BB-4AAD-8280-238EEB234EAE.thumb.gif.b8d0235f9e1492da5b19d746829e522c.gif

Ignore the mild ones, ba hum bug 😜

I wish shannon enter..what's it's face a very merry Christmas:rofl::D

control run a trend setter:D

eps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.dee0e731c19f83a5d55b2174300ae024.pngeps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.8908fbf1313aabaf9b372ecaeb45387f.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Merry xmas everyone from a dank mild Sheffield. The 18z did show a glimmer of hope in fi with an attempt at building a scan high ete

Wish it was at 48hrs looking at the nhp and pv at the 130h mark because it isnt pretty.whatever the weather enjoy ,make merry and stay safe .:)

Edited by swfc
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The ecm has the low 982mb Celtic Sea to north Devon at 1800 Tuesday with much rain in south west.

By 00 it is along the M4 and at 06 Wednesday it is orientated Sussex to great Yarmouth.

For what it's worth the ecm is showing quite substantial snow falls for Wales and the Midlands with lesser amounts for counties in the south west

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Merry crimstmas all, and some good news is that the ENS are showing a Scandy high in FI on the majority - of sorts anyway 

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Merry Christmas to everyone in this thoroughly enjoyable rollercoaster of a thread. Here's hoping we all see at least one decent snowfall this Winter. :hi:

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Some good charts there s4lancia. Could be even better if we had the missing Xmas data input....Happy Christmas :D

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merry  xmas   all just looked at f1  if that comes off we will all go in to the deep  cold!!!:cold::cold:

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Merry xmas all and one.

Let's drink to a very snowy new year!

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Merry Christmas to all :) 🎄Hope your turkey is moist and your sprouts are crunchy ;) 

latest ECM snow levels from Wednesdays low,

IMG_3098.thumb.PNG.d620b8540abacc6a44c4eacbdec4d23f.PNG

As others have said exact track and nature of the system to be decided regarding rain/snow. But nice to have the risk of at least some seeing falling snow over the xmas week .

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1 hour ago, tinybill said:

merry  xmas   all just looked at f1  if that comes off we will all go in to the deep  cold!!!:cold::cold:

Yes,, a merry christmas to all on NW......and yes I also looked at deep f1 and it looks a belter, Lewis Hamilton is a shoe-in for the world title! :wink:

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UKMO going to go colder into 2018?

ukm2.2018010100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1112b1ed4bc5637b3c5bbbdc399201c9.png

ECM has a major low heading to Iceland right at the end

ECM1-240.thumb.GIF.c1b7b4a09631d0791ad13bfa6ead390c.GIF

Must be that lack of data affecting it :crazy:

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54 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Merry Christmas to all :) 🎄Hope your turkey is moist and your sprouts are crunchy ;) 

latest ECM snow levels from Wednesdays low,

IMG_3098.thumb.PNG.d620b8540abacc6a44c4eacbdec4d23f.PNG

As others have said exact track and nature of the system to be decided regarding rain/snow. But nice to have the risk of at least some seeing falling snow over the xmas week .

I hope that’s correct. Birmingham in the middle of it all again.

track is still subject to changes in my opinion 

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10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO going to go colder into 2018?

ukm2.2018010100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1112b1ed4bc5637b3c5bbbdc399201c9.png

ECM has a major low heading to Iceland right at the end

ECM1-240.thumb.GIF.c1b7b4a09631d0791ad13bfa6ead390c.GIF

Must be that lack of data affecting it :crazy:

Great. The day I fly into Reykjavik 😱 Hopefully I will make it in one piece and see a full on blizzard.

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8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

I wish shannon enter..what's it's face a very merry Christmas:rofl::D

control run a trend setter:D

eps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.dee0e731c19f83a5d55b2174300ae024.pngeps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.8908fbf1313aabaf9b372ecaeb45387f.png

 

Be an interesting stat if the data has ever been collated. What percentage of an outlier control or op run turns out to be a trendsetter? 

Merry Xmas all 

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