Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Paul

Model output discussion - heading into 2018

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here. 
For more general chat and banter, moans and ramps, please head to the banter thread.
For general weather chat, please go to the regional threads.

Notice a problem with a post? Please hit the report button.
Thank you!

View the latest forecast models in the Netweather DataCentre

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And...some potential.

h850t850eu.png

Indeed, plenty of potential for snow around from boxing day right through to late next week, good stuff from the Gfs 12z with a return of wintry weather bringing sleet, snow, frosts and ice..not just to the north either!:santa-emoji::cold-emoji:

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With the jet temporarily diverted south by the upper trough the front with little developing waves stalls over the UK. Possible white out in the Pennines ? :shok:.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_29.thumb.png.ebf7e9a84376e18c8b2ba38b7ce72c09.pnggfs_uv500_natl_29.thumb.png.231edf3102c957910aea1b47bf77de3b.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

With the jet temporarily diverted south by the upper trough the front with little developing waves stalls over the UK. Possible white out in the Pennines ? :shok:.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_29.thumb.png.ebf7e9a84376e18c8b2ba38b7ce72c09.pnggfs_uv500_natl_29.thumb.png.231edf3102c957910aea1b47bf77de3b.png

Indeed as i have been mentioning for days Knocker :)

UKMO tho - yuk, cold rain away from northern scotland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Indeed as i have been mentioning for days Knocker :)

UKMO tho - yuk, cold rain away from northern scotland.

But wait nws look what pops out of the woodshed :shok: Sidney............................

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_41.thumb.png.55c260648c21b068fed68b93f331007d.pnggfs_uv500_natl_39.thumb.png.b751da4af560c29dd1245eb1bf4ac6f8.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh dear, where did all that potential toddle off to?

h850t850eu.png

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Indeed as i have been mentioning for days Knocker :)

UKMO tho - yuk, cold rain away from northern scotland.

There is actually only minor difference's, granted on local basis it makes a big difference. Also the UKMO only has the feature just approaching my 144hrs so that judgement is a little premature. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

But wait nws look what pops out of the woodshed :shok: Sidney............................

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_41.thumb.png.55c260648c21b068fed68b93f331007d.pnggfs_uv500_natl_39.thumb.png.b751da4af560c29dd1245eb1bf4ac6f8.png

Yes the trend is to milder for new year for sure knocker- you are a WAG :D

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, knocker said:

But wait nws look what pops out of the woodshed :shok:Sidney............................

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_41.thumb.png.55c260648c21b068fed68b93f331007d.pnggfs_uv500_natl_39.thumb.png.b751da4af560c29dd1245eb1bf4ac6f8.png

Oooo a 24 hour spell of very mild weather, how unusual :hi:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

There is actually only minor difference's, granted on local basis it makes a big difference. Also the UKMO only has the feature just approaching my 144hrs so that judgement is a little premature. 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

With those uppers and winds of the Atlantic i'm afraid its cold hard rain away from northern scotland.

we need corrections south on ukmo to bring more of the country into the game- which is not impossible at 144 so the next runs will be interesting (or frustrating)..

Edited by northwestsnow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

HALLO!  HALLO!

gfsnh-10-384.png?12

 

I have been monitoring the GFS 10Hpha for a few days Feb and this is gathering momentum now.

But then again i was told it wasn't really doing any damage to the vortex, so i'm not sure how important this is, won't do any harm surely?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:D

Just now, knocker said:

But wait nws look what pops out of the woodshed :shok: Sidney............................

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_41.thumb.png.55c260648c21b068fed68b93f331007d.pnggfs_uv500_natl_39.thumb.png.b751da4af560c29dd1245eb1bf4ac6f8.png

Good heavens a former met office man showing a  chart at 11 days and expecting it to verify. Whatever next:D

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A pumping up of a Euro high later on certainly looks to be a recurring theme. SW-NE jet for a while. But. Can we get it to retrogress northwards into a Scandinavian high at some point thereafter? Not this time but some previous ENS have toyed with the idea. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

:D

Good heavens a former met office man showing a  chart at 11 days and expecting it to verify. Whatever next:D

LOL

Dont think Knocker said it would verify

C.S

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just looking at the 500hPa temperatures we can see the warmer air getting right into the centre of the Polar Vortex (552 thicknesses) and this pushes out the cold upper air south around the edges thus the Atlantic jet heads south of the Uk whilst this effect lasts.

gfsnh-13-96.png?12

With time without that strong Pacific ridging we can see on this run how the PV gradually cools and contracts( lower thicknesses)

 gfsnh-13-240.png?12

and the jet starts to move back north with sub-tropical ridging moving north with it.

Not expecting the latter chart to verify like that of course but just to illustrate another way of seeing the varying strength and depth of the pv and how it expands/fragments and then reforms/contracts with the changes of temperature.This even on a modest scale shows how some cold air can move south with very modest polar heights-just the odd wedge!

Of course for a more notable cold outbreak we require more than what is showing currently but never the less some interest next week,especially for the favoured areas and certainly colder for most.Worth watching out for the track of those wave depressions that run along the jet across our locale after Christmas.

 

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Good heavens a former met office man showing a  chart at 11 days and expecting it to verify. Whatever next

I wonder whether my pension will be affected now that I've succumbed and gone over to the dark side.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I have been monitoring the GFS 10Hpha for a few days Feb and this is gathering momentum now.

But then again i was told it wasn't really doing any damage to the vortex, so i'm not sure how important this is, won't do any harm surely?

It wont do any damage as it is - as you can see its just a tiny displacement - you really need it to progressively get nearer and nearer the pole and preferably you want to see temps closer to freezing which would show up as reds on that chart - but it might do as the run doesn't go far enough yet - but equally I'm not sure if an SSW is expected or not, you usually know when one is expected as the strat guys call out before you even see it come into GFS range - chionomaniac called both the 2012 and 2013 ones an absolute mile out (yes I know 2012 wasn't a technical SSW but it did the business)

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2017122112&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While i m as happy as most with the GFS 12z (for snow potential ) i think expectations need to be managed, esp after viewing UKMO

For those in N Scotland its looking good for a wintry blast, on both models- for those of us further south UKMO is nowhere near cold enough..

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

While i m as happy as most with the GFS 12z (for snow potential ) i think expectations need to be managed, esp after viewing UKMO

For those in N Scotland its looking good for a wintry blast, on both models- for those of us further south UKMO is nowhere near cold enough..

Let's hope the Ecm builds on the Gfs idea and brings us another taste of winter between xmas and new year!:santa-emoji:..we will soon find out:D

hidingbehindcouch.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, at least Barents sea will cool down nicely in the coming week. Too bad Europe is to cold air what Moses was to water. Still, I'm optimistic that come April, we will tap into that cold. :drunk-emoji:

gfsnh-1-174.png?12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×