Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmm gfs 06z might be going further south again lol!!lets see!!

almost no difference looking at the precip n extent 

it looks north of ukmo and is currently the most northerly of all models on this feature (again!)

[shaky]

I think gfs was far too north on the last slider and ecm was a bit too south!!so you would think ukmo has maybe got this one!!

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

almost no difference looking at the precip n extent 

it looks north of ukmo and is currently the most northerly of all models on this feature (again!)

Agree.

And think its safe to say xmas day will likely be the decider on this via models.

And then its the age old case of overheads...who get what!!!

But interesting to see how it all unfolds!!!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

I think gfs was far too north on the last slider and ecm was a bit too south!!so you would think ukmo has maybe got this one!!

Indeed- you nicked all my snow from the last slider if you do it again im putting you on ignore 

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Indeed- you nicked all my snow from the last slider if you do it again im putting you on ignore 

Latest UKV has it much further south and very marginal as well.

[West is Best]

Why is so little being said about this in the world beyond NW? It's only 96 hours away.

 

[JBMWeatherForever]

Latest UKMO fax charts looking more interesting though !

[tight isobar]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Latest UKV has it much further south and very marginal as well.

V-similar set up to the last scenario(@this range)...

That in my area we done preety well out of..

??

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Latest UKV has it much further south and very marginal as well.

wonderful.

Think i'm going to break from this model malarky...

We are going to stay bone dry from another slider by the looks of it.

Funny really because when its not cold enough the rain never manages to miss our area.

Oh well, despite my frustration (again) i hope some further south get some snow

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

Why is so little being said about this in the world beyond NW? It's only 96 hours away.

 

@96hrs out theres is indeed a world away!..

Dew point/wet bulbing...not to mention exactions of the feature in-itself...

A fair bit of modeling to go yet on this. .

 

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

V-similar set up to the last scenario(@this range)...

That in my area we done preety well out of..

??

Last time, we had better imbedded cold.  This time it will most likely be rain for most I am afraid.  Chances of snow in London from this system ~10%.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

V-similar set up to the last scenario(@this range)...

That in my area we done preety well out of..

??

Yes, that's North London isn't it - 2 inches wasn't it? - good for anywhere near London these days.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mulzy said:

Last time, we had better imbedded cold.  This time it will most likely be rain for most I am afraid.  Chances of snow in London from this system ~10%.

Thats my concern too- there is no SE winds ahead of the front this time..

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Last time, we had better imbedded cold.  This time it will most likely be rain for most I am afraid.  Chances of snow in London from this system ~10%.

Yeah im with you on that.

But as again @96-still need eyeing for exactions.

Although atm without decent elevation its looking cold and wet low lying.

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Last time, we had better imbedded cold.  This time it will most likely be rain for most I am afraid.  Chances of snow in London from this system ~10%.

A key point

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Last time, we had better imbedded cold.  This time it will most likely be rain for most I am afraid.  Chances of snow in London from this system ~10%.

I am often surprised how it doesn’t require embedded cold for several days to bring a snowfall

however I looked at the ecm precip this morning and it reminded me of the system that followed the snowfall the other week when the forecast intensity of the precip on the Friday 12z run dictated the amount of snowfall shown. Once that intensity dropped out, so did the white stuff (away from elevation) 

i am in broad agreement with you that if this doesn’t get much north of the midlands there will be little snowfall from it (given current modelling - if the ridge builds a bit and forces the trough to elongate then ......)

Edited December 23, 2017 by bluearmy

[Polar Maritime]

NetWx-MR in house Model snow possibilities for Wednesday.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetWx-MR in house Model snow possibilities for Wednesday.

That's the NMM isn't it? it had the slider way too far south a couple of weeks ago, id suggest its got this one too far North.

[Polar Maritime]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

That's the NMM isn't it? it had the slider way too far south a couple of weeks ago, id suggest its got this one too far North.

Yes NMM feb.

[tight isobar]

Im refraining from the modeled slider for now...

On the simple fact its to far away to call.trawling through the data atm...

Has things all over the place' with very different outcomes..

So its going on the back-burner....for now!

Edited December 23, 2017 by tight isobar

[shaky]

 

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats my concern too- there is no SE winds ahead of the front this time..

If its of any consolation the latest icon 06z gives snowfall for wales midlands and north west england!!good 10cms aswell!!like i sed earlier right now wales and midlands look in the sweet spot but could go further north!!history tells us just like the last slider that it will go further south!!

[nytram43]

23 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Why is so little being said about this in the world beyond NW? It's only 96 hours away.

 

Am I reading these charts wrong or is the snow line above 1000 Feet?

[johnholmes]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That's the NMM isn't it? it had the slider way too far south a couple of weeks ago, id suggest its got this one too far North.

And it uses GFS data

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, shaky said:

 

If its of any consolation the latest icon 06z gives snowfall for wales midlands and north west england!!good 10cms aswell!!like i sed earlier right now wales and midlands look in the sweet spot but could go further north!!history tells us just like the last slider that it will go further south!!

mate im exhausted already lol.

Despite any frustration i will feel if i miss out i would never begrudge those lucky enough to see some snow!!

12Zs will reveal more but lets face it, it wasn't until like 36hours before the last slider we knew what was going to happen, i doubt it will be much different this time..

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

And it uses GFS data

How do you mean, the inputted starting conditions (thought they were the same for every model) or the output just formatted differently?